Friday, July 9, 2010

So what is the "right" price for gold?

John Nadler of KITCO( click on title for full article) opines:

Of course, now we've heard that such a price should be anywhere between $8,000 and even $15,000, but I still think that between $680 and $880, or in that range, gold would be much more in balance with its fundamentals.

Eight hundred is a number that you saw come up in the GFMS surveys as a potential target, and they gave it up to two years (even with the potential overshoot of up to $1,320).

Yeah, that could still happen, but it's all a cycle, a phase in the markets. It's currently driven by a circumstance (Europe), but not some "new dynamic" (a return to a gold-based world) that has suddenly become the new paradigm.

You also have had Barclays Wealth Management coming out, saying they envision $800 gold by January 2012, and saying in an interview on that they're "shorting the GLD and buying put options on gold for Jan 2012."

Further, what am I to make of Societe Generale, which also said in April of this year that $800 gold is in the cards before the end of 2010? And so on; I am not alone in computing such figures.

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