Thursday, March 26, 2009

Market Reflections 3/25/2009

Treasury Geithner didn't help the dollar which fell more than 1-1/2 cents to $1.3600 against the euro. Speaking in New York, Geithner reportedly said he is "open" to a proposal, voiced earlier this week by China, to increase the use of the IMF's special drawing rights, a system that would substitute non-dollar currencies or commodities for dollars. Geithner later affirmed the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, saying it won't be changing anytime soon. President Obama voiced opposition on Tuesday against a global currency.

Stocks were little changed but not Treasuries where the surge of supply is beginning to bend the rafters. Demand was very thin for the day's gigantic $34 billion 5-year auction. The Treasury auctions $24 billion of 7-year notes on tomorrow.

A big inventory draw at the key delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma will probably help keep oil above $50 through the rest of the week. May WTI ended at $52.86. Talk is building that oil's range, stuck for months at $35 to $50, has shifted to $50 to $60. News of strong inflows into gold ETFs is helping to keep gold firm, ending at $936.90.

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