Friday, June 19, 2009

Market Reflections 6/18/2009

The economic outlook picked up smartly on Thursday led by declines in jobless claims data and a decline in the insured unemployment rate that points possibly to a top for the overall employment rate, a top that would appear sooner than most expected. Conditions in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector are nearly steady, pointing to a forthcoming 50 reading in the ISM's national report that would indicate stable month-to-month conditions. The LEI rounds out the good news, jumping for a second month and likewise pointing to better conditions and soon.

The good news drove the S&P 0.8 percent higher to 918.37. Investors saw less need for the safety of Treasuries where yields rose steeply, up 9 basis points for the 2-year note to 1.25 percent and up 16 basis points for the 10-year to 3.85 percent. The dollar ended firmer, up 0.6 percent on the dollar index to 80.65. Commodities were steady with oil ending at $71.25.

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