The US economy shed 131,000 jobs in July, as weaker-than-expected private sector hiring cast doubt over the recovery.
Official figures showed job losses mounting for the second month running, following five consecutive months of gains from the start of the year. Some Wall Street analysts had predicted that payrolls would fall by 65,000 in July, leaving the month’s losses twice as severe as feared.
July nonfarm payrolls declined 131,000, more than the consensus estimate of -87,000. The prior month was revised to -221,000 from -125,000. Encouraging indicators include private payrolls of 71,000, hourly earnings that rose 0.2% (vs. estimates of 0.1%), and the average workweek rising to 34.2 (vs. estimates of 34.1).
Simply put, there is not enough jobs being created to put a dent in unemployment.
The official unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%, a further sign the economic recovery may be losing momentum.
The real unemployment rate stayed at 16.5%.
Showing posts with label economic releases. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic releases. Show all posts
Friday, August 6, 2010
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Weaker EU members' dependence on the ECB is at a record high
Data show that weaker members of the EU are more dependent on the European Central Bank than ever before. The revelation comes as European regulators prepare to release results of stress tests on 91 banks, part of efforts to reassure markets
about the stability of the financial sector. However, sources said some regulators are urging that results be released before the start of trading in Europe, rather than after, as planned. The Wall Street Journal
about the stability of the financial sector. However, sources said some regulators are urging that results be released before the start of trading in Europe, rather than after, as planned. The Wall Street Journal
Friday, October 2, 2009
Factory Orders
Released on 10/2/2009 10:00:00 AM For August, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Factory Orders - M/M change 1.3 % 1.0 % -0.8 % to 1.6 % -0.8 %
Highlights
The manufacturing recovery is having a bumpy lift off. Manufacturing activity first moved higher in June then improved further in July but then dipped back in August. Factory orders for August fell 0.8 percent vs. a 1.4 percent rise in July (1.3 percent first reported) and vs. a 0.9 percent rise in June. August's data were pulled lower by durable goods, down 2.6 percent in the month (revised from an initial 2.4 percent). August orders for non-durable goods make their appearance with this report, up 0.8 percent and reflecting higher prices for oil & coal but not nearly enough to offset the drop in durable goods.
Weakness in durable goods is centered in transportation which is skewed not by motor vehicles, which despite cash-for-clunkers have been steady and which rose 2.0 percent in August, but have been skewed by aircraft where a huge jump in July made for a huge drop in August. Most categories outside of transportation also show month-to-month weakness. Capital goods readings fell back from big gains in July and point to trouble for export data in next week's international trade report. Consumer goods readings were mixed showing weakness for durable goods but strength for nondurables.
Among other data in the report, factory shipments fell 0.3 percent vs. a 0.3 percent rise in July. This particular reading raises the question whether the manufacturing sector actually did dip back into negative territory during August. Unfilled orders fell 0.4 percent while inventories fell 0.8 percent as manufacturers continued to keep costs down. But yesterday's ISM manufacturing report showed a pivotal slowing in the rate of inventory draw, pointing to a month-to-month gain for September inventories in what arguably would mark the end of the inventory correction. The outlook for the manufacturing sector is positive but uncertain as the sector's recovery is proving, as was expected, to be gradual not explosive.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Factory Orders - M/M change 1.3 % 1.0 % -0.8 % to 1.6 % -0.8 %
Highlights
The manufacturing recovery is having a bumpy lift off. Manufacturing activity first moved higher in June then improved further in July but then dipped back in August. Factory orders for August fell 0.8 percent vs. a 1.4 percent rise in July (1.3 percent first reported) and vs. a 0.9 percent rise in June. August's data were pulled lower by durable goods, down 2.6 percent in the month (revised from an initial 2.4 percent). August orders for non-durable goods make their appearance with this report, up 0.8 percent and reflecting higher prices for oil & coal but not nearly enough to offset the drop in durable goods.
Weakness in durable goods is centered in transportation which is skewed not by motor vehicles, which despite cash-for-clunkers have been steady and which rose 2.0 percent in August, but have been skewed by aircraft where a huge jump in July made for a huge drop in August. Most categories outside of transportation also show month-to-month weakness. Capital goods readings fell back from big gains in July and point to trouble for export data in next week's international trade report. Consumer goods readings were mixed showing weakness for durable goods but strength for nondurables.
Among other data in the report, factory shipments fell 0.3 percent vs. a 0.3 percent rise in July. This particular reading raises the question whether the manufacturing sector actually did dip back into negative territory during August. Unfilled orders fell 0.4 percent while inventories fell 0.8 percent as manufacturers continued to keep costs down. But yesterday's ISM manufacturing report showed a pivotal slowing in the rate of inventory draw, pointing to a month-to-month gain for September inventories in what arguably would mark the end of the inventory correction. The outlook for the manufacturing sector is positive but uncertain as the sector's recovery is proving, as was expected, to be gradual not explosive.
Employment Situation
Released on 10/2/2009 8:30:00 AM For September, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change -216,000 -170,000 -235,000 to -135,000 -263,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 9.7 % 9.8 % 9.6 % to 9.9 % 9.8 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.1 %
Average Workweek - Level 33.1 hrs 33.1 hrs 33.1 hrs to 33.2 hrs 33.0 hrs
Highlights
The September jobs report was disappointing-but the consensus may have grown too optimistic. In reality, job losses are not nearly as severe as earlier in the recession and the unemployment rate is drifting up slowly as expected. Nonfarm payroll employment in September fell 263,000, following a revised decline of 201,000 in August and a revised decrease of 304,000 in July. The September drop in payroll employment was worse than the consensus forecast for a 170,000 contraction. August and July revisions were down a net 13,000 (the net declines were worse).
Job losses were widespread in both goods-producing and service-providing sectors. By major categories, goods-producing jobs decreased 116,000 in September, following a 132,000 drop the month before. In the latest month, construction jobs fell 64,000 while manufacturing declined 51,000 and mining slipped 1,000. Service-providing losses, however, surged back to a 147,000 fall, after contracting only 69,000 in August. The drop in service-providing jobs was led by trade & transportation, down 60,000, and by government, down 53,000. Trade was tugged down mainly by retail jobs which fell 39,000. Government weakness was led by the non-education component of local government, down 24,000, as revenue shortfalls have forced job cuts despite fiscal stimulus monies.
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.2 million.
On a year-ago basis, payroll jobs were down 4.2 percent in September-slightly better than down 4.3 percent the previous month.
Wage inflation eased sharply as average hourly earnings in September grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain in August. The consensus had projected a 0.2 percent rise for the latest month. The average workweek slipped to 33.0 hours from 33.1 hours in August, coming in below the market forecast for 33.1 hours.
Turning to the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate continued its uptrend, rising to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in August and compared to the market forecast for 9.8 percent. The latest rate is the highest since 1983.
Today's employment report will set equities back as futures were down notably on the release. Bond yields fell. However, the numbers are not dramatically negative and on average over the last few months reflect improvement. It is too early to write off the recovery given that nearly everyone expected a sluggish and choppy recovery.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in August fell 216,000, following a decrease of 276,000 in July and a decline of 463,000 in June. By major categories, goods-producing jobs dropped 136,000 in August, following a 122,000 decrease the month before. The slowing in overall payroll job cuts was due to fewer pink slips in the services sector. Service-providing losses were cut in half with an 80,000 decline after falling 154,000 in July. Wage inflation warmed up a bit-likely due to a jump in the minimum wage. Average hourly earnings in August rose 0.3 percent, matching July's gain.
Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change -216,000 -170,000 -235,000 to -135,000 -263,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 9.7 % 9.8 % 9.6 % to 9.9 % 9.8 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.1 %
Average Workweek - Level 33.1 hrs 33.1 hrs 33.1 hrs to 33.2 hrs 33.0 hrs
Highlights
The September jobs report was disappointing-but the consensus may have grown too optimistic. In reality, job losses are not nearly as severe as earlier in the recession and the unemployment rate is drifting up slowly as expected. Nonfarm payroll employment in September fell 263,000, following a revised decline of 201,000 in August and a revised decrease of 304,000 in July. The September drop in payroll employment was worse than the consensus forecast for a 170,000 contraction. August and July revisions were down a net 13,000 (the net declines were worse).
Job losses were widespread in both goods-producing and service-providing sectors. By major categories, goods-producing jobs decreased 116,000 in September, following a 132,000 drop the month before. In the latest month, construction jobs fell 64,000 while manufacturing declined 51,000 and mining slipped 1,000. Service-providing losses, however, surged back to a 147,000 fall, after contracting only 69,000 in August. The drop in service-providing jobs was led by trade & transportation, down 60,000, and by government, down 53,000. Trade was tugged down mainly by retail jobs which fell 39,000. Government weakness was led by the non-education component of local government, down 24,000, as revenue shortfalls have forced job cuts despite fiscal stimulus monies.
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.2 million.
On a year-ago basis, payroll jobs were down 4.2 percent in September-slightly better than down 4.3 percent the previous month.
Wage inflation eased sharply as average hourly earnings in September grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain in August. The consensus had projected a 0.2 percent rise for the latest month. The average workweek slipped to 33.0 hours from 33.1 hours in August, coming in below the market forecast for 33.1 hours.
Turning to the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate continued its uptrend, rising to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in August and compared to the market forecast for 9.8 percent. The latest rate is the highest since 1983.
Today's employment report will set equities back as futures were down notably on the release. Bond yields fell. However, the numbers are not dramatically negative and on average over the last few months reflect improvement. It is too early to write off the recovery given that nearly everyone expected a sluggish and choppy recovery.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in August fell 216,000, following a decrease of 276,000 in July and a decline of 463,000 in June. By major categories, goods-producing jobs dropped 136,000 in August, following a 122,000 decrease the month before. The slowing in overall payroll job cuts was due to fewer pink slips in the services sector. Service-providing losses were cut in half with an 80,000 decline after falling 154,000 in July. Wage inflation warmed up a bit-likely due to a jump in the minimum wage. Average hourly earnings in August rose 0.3 percent, matching July's gain.
Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Jobless Claims Released on 9/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk8/29, 2009
There has been very little change in initial jobless claims over the past seven weeks, pointing to little change in payroll losses for tomorrow's monthly employment report. Initial claims fell 4,000 to 570,000 in the Aug. 29 week (prior week revised 4,000 higher to 574,000). The four-week average is right at the current week, at 571,250. Continuing claims have been generally moving lower since early July, unfortunately reflecting the expiration of benefits and not necessarily new hiring.
But in a bad sign, continuing claims rose in data for the Aug. 22 week, up 92,000 to 6.234 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers rose 1 tenth to 4.7 percent. There was no significant reaction to the report.
But in a bad sign, continuing claims rose in data for the Aug. 22 week, up 92,000 to 6.234 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers rose 1 tenth to 4.7 percent. There was no significant reaction to the report.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
ISM Mfg Index Released on 9/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For August, 2009
The ISM's manufacturing index burst over the dead-even 50 level for the first time since the beginning of the recession, at 52.9 in August vs. 48.9 in July. New orders led the advance, at 64.9 vs. August's 55.3 and pointing to rising business activity in the months ahead. Production was also very strong in August, at 61.9 for a 4 point gain and pointing to gains in durable goods shipments and total manufacturing sales. Backlogs also increased, at 52.5 vs. 50.0 in July. But manufacturers are not stocking up, instead they continue to draw down inventories where the index is a very weak 34.4 vs. 33.5 in July. Note that future gains in the inventories index, a seeming necessity given rising production needs, will help give the overall index a big boost. Respondents in fact think inventories at their customers' firms are too low, with the customer inventories down 3.5 points to 39.0. Deliveries slowed substantially, up more than 5 points to indicate that current production needs are stressing what has become a pared down supply chain. Production activity and the gain in orders has yet to boost employment where the index only inched forward to a still sub-50 level of 46.4.
All the strength here is flowing through to prices where the prices paid index jumped 10 points to 65.0, an indication that buyers are bidding up prices for raw materials. No doubt boosted by cash-for-clunkers and gains in transportation, the manufacturing recovery is on the way and together with the gain in the pending home sales index indicate that two key sectors are on the acceleration. Stocks jumped in immediate reaction to today's 10 o'clock data.
Construction Spending
Released on 9/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For July, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Construction Spending - M/M change 0.3 % 0.0 % -0.5 % to 0.3 % -0.2 %
Construction outlays fell in July but showed significant divergence among components as residential outlays rebounded while public and nonresidential construction declined. Overall construction spending edged down 0.2 percent in July after making a partial comeback of 0.1 percent in June. The dip in July came in below the consensus projection for no change. The decline in spending in July was led by a 1.2 percent decrease in private nonresidential outlays while public spending also fell-by 0.7 percent. The good news in the report was that private residential outlays added to the view that the housing sector is recovering with a 2.3 percent boost in July after declining 0.4 percent in June.
The July construction spending report was not as good as expected but equities liked the better-than-expected ISM manufacturing index and pending home sales index which were released at the same time as construction outlays. Overall, housing appears to have turned the corner and likely is in slow recovery. Meanwhile, the public and nonresidential sectors continue their downtrends.
Pending Home Sales Index
Released on 9/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For July, 2009
Prior Actual
Pending Home Sales Index - Level 94.6 12.0 %
Pending Home Sales Index - M/M 3.6 % 3.2 %
Pending home sales continue to improve pointing to extending gains for existing home sales. The pending home sales index rose 3.2 percent extending a long streak of gains and compared with a 3.6 percent rise in June. The year-on-year is very strong at 12.0 percent. Nearly all indications on the residential side, including today's construction spending report, point to accelerating gains in what is very good news for the economic recovery.
All the strength here is flowing through to prices where the prices paid index jumped 10 points to 65.0, an indication that buyers are bidding up prices for raw materials. No doubt boosted by cash-for-clunkers and gains in transportation, the manufacturing recovery is on the way and together with the gain in the pending home sales index indicate that two key sectors are on the acceleration. Stocks jumped in immediate reaction to today's 10 o'clock data.
Construction Spending
Released on 9/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For July, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Construction Spending - M/M change 0.3 % 0.0 % -0.5 % to 0.3 % -0.2 %
Construction outlays fell in July but showed significant divergence among components as residential outlays rebounded while public and nonresidential construction declined. Overall construction spending edged down 0.2 percent in July after making a partial comeback of 0.1 percent in June. The dip in July came in below the consensus projection for no change. The decline in spending in July was led by a 1.2 percent decrease in private nonresidential outlays while public spending also fell-by 0.7 percent. The good news in the report was that private residential outlays added to the view that the housing sector is recovering with a 2.3 percent boost in July after declining 0.4 percent in June.
The July construction spending report was not as good as expected but equities liked the better-than-expected ISM manufacturing index and pending home sales index which were released at the same time as construction outlays. Overall, housing appears to have turned the corner and likely is in slow recovery. Meanwhile, the public and nonresidential sectors continue their downtrends.
Pending Home Sales Index
Released on 9/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For July, 2009
Prior Actual
Pending Home Sales Index - Level 94.6 12.0 %
Pending Home Sales Index - M/M 3.6 % 3.2 %
Pending home sales continue to improve pointing to extending gains for existing home sales. The pending home sales index rose 3.2 percent extending a long streak of gains and compared with a 3.6 percent rise in June. The year-on-year is very strong at 12.0 percent. Nearly all indications on the residential side, including today's construction spending report, point to accelerating gains in what is very good news for the economic recovery.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Durable goods orders data for April
Durable goods orders data for April were just released and show an increase of 1.9%, which is better than the 0.5% increase that was expected by economists. Meanwhile, the previous data was revised downward to reflect a 2.1% decrease. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders for April climbed 0.8%, which is better than the 0.3% decline that was widely anticipated. Durable goods orders less transporation for March were revised downward to reflect a 2.7% decrease. Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 22 totaled 623,000, which was slightly below the 628,000 initial claims that were expected. Claims for the prior week were revised upward to 636,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims notched another record high by coming in at 6.79 million, which exceeds the 6.75 million continuing claims that were generally expected. Continuing claims increased 110,000 week-over-week. Both new home sales for April and first quarter mortgage delinquencies are due at 10:00 AM ET.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Redbook
Released on 5/5/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk5/2, 2009
Previous Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 0.7 % 0.3 %
Highlights
Redbook and ICSC-Goldman are offering differing takes on store sales with Redbook, at a year-on-year +0.3% in the May 2 week, indicating strength while ICSC, reported earlier this morning at -0.8%, indicating weakness. Still Redbook's latest reading is down from the prior week, the result it said of swine flu which kept shoppers at home. Redbook estimates that full month April sales, benefiting from this year's Easter shift, rose 1.5 percent compared to March, a result that points to strength for the non-auto non-gas category of the monthly retail sales report. Redbook sees strength continuing, targeting a 0.5 percent month-to-month rise for May.
Definition
A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. It is also calculated differently than other indicators. For instance, figures for the first week of the month are compared with the average for the entire previous month. When two weeks are available, then these are compared with the average for the previous month, and so on. It might be more useful to compare year-over-year figures since these are indeed compared to the comparable week a year ago. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales
Why Investor's CareConsumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 due to the credit crunch and recession.
The Redbook is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005.
Frequency
Weekly
Revisions
Sometimes for the previous week
Definition
A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. It is also calculated differently than other indicators. For instance, figures for the first week of the month are compared with the average for the entire previous month. When two weeks are available, then these are compared with the average for the previous month, and so on. It might be more useful to compare year-over-year figures since these are indeed compared to the comparable week a year ago. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales.
Previous Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 0.7 % 0.3 %
Highlights
Redbook and ICSC-Goldman are offering differing takes on store sales with Redbook, at a year-on-year +0.3% in the May 2 week, indicating strength while ICSC, reported earlier this morning at -0.8%, indicating weakness. Still Redbook's latest reading is down from the prior week, the result it said of swine flu which kept shoppers at home. Redbook estimates that full month April sales, benefiting from this year's Easter shift, rose 1.5 percent compared to March, a result that points to strength for the non-auto non-gas category of the monthly retail sales report. Redbook sees strength continuing, targeting a 0.5 percent month-to-month rise for May.
Definition
A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. It is also calculated differently than other indicators. For instance, figures for the first week of the month are compared with the average for the entire previous month. When two weeks are available, then these are compared with the average for the previous month, and so on. It might be more useful to compare year-over-year figures since these are indeed compared to the comparable week a year ago. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales
Why Investor's CareConsumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 due to the credit crunch and recession.
The Redbook is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005.
Frequency
Weekly
Revisions
Sometimes for the previous week
Definition
A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. It is also calculated differently than other indicators. For instance, figures for the first week of the month are compared with the average for the entire previous month. When two weeks are available, then these are compared with the average for the previous month, and so on. It might be more useful to compare year-over-year figures since these are indeed compared to the comparable week a year ago. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales.
Pending Home Sales Index
Released on 5/4/2009 10:00:00 AM For March, 2009
Previous Actual
Pending Home Sales Index - Level 82.1 84.6
Pending Home Sales Index - M/M 2.1 % 3.2 %
Highlights
Government efforts to push mortgage rates lower in combination with financing incentives and falling home prices may be turning the housing sector around at long last. The pending sales index rose 3.2 percent to 84.6 in March pointing to improvement in existing sales for April and May. Gains were centered in the Midwest and South, but a decline in the West, where the housing collapse is centered, does pose the only bad news in the report. Construction spending for March was also released at 10:00 ET and shows the first increase in six months. Markets showed no reaction to the reports at least initially, though they should give stocks an extra boost through the session and may also raise talk of easing toxic pressures on banks.
Definition
The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. As such, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.
2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/6 2/3 3/3 4/1 5/4 6/2 7/1 8/4 9/1 10/1 11/2 12/1
Released For: Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Why Investor's Care
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the pending home sales index which measures home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Frequency
Monthly
Definition
The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. As such, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.
Previous Actual
Pending Home Sales Index - Level 82.1 84.6
Pending Home Sales Index - M/M 2.1 % 3.2 %
Highlights
Government efforts to push mortgage rates lower in combination with financing incentives and falling home prices may be turning the housing sector around at long last. The pending sales index rose 3.2 percent to 84.6 in March pointing to improvement in existing sales for April and May. Gains were centered in the Midwest and South, but a decline in the West, where the housing collapse is centered, does pose the only bad news in the report. Construction spending for March was also released at 10:00 ET and shows the first increase in six months. Markets showed no reaction to the reports at least initially, though they should give stocks an extra boost through the session and may also raise talk of easing toxic pressures on banks.
Definition
The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. As such, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.
2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/6 2/3 3/3 4/1 5/4 6/2 7/1 8/4 9/1 10/1 11/2 12/1
Released For: Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Why Investor's Care
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the pending home sales index which measures home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Frequency
Monthly
Definition
The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. As such, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.
Construction Spending
Released on 5/4/2009 10:00:00 AM For March, 2009
Previous Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Construction Spending - M/M change -0.9 % -1.0 % -2.0 % to -0.1 % 0.3 %
Construction Spending - Y/Y change -11.1 %
Highlights
Construction spending in March rebounded unexpectedly but housing is still on a downtrend. Construction outlays posted a 0.3 percent gain in March, following a 1.0 percent decrease the month before. The rise in March was much better than the market forecast for a 1.0 percent fall. The rebound in March was led by private nonresidential outlays which jumped 2.7 percent after a 0.7 increase in February. The public component also advanced 1.1 percent, following a 1.3 percent boost the month before. However, the private residential component continued its downward trend, falling 4.2 percent after a 5.9 percent plunge in February.
Within private residential outlays, the single-family component dropped a monthly 8.6 percent while the multifamily component slipped 1.1 percent in the latest month.
On a year-on-year basis, overall construction outlays weakened to down11.1 percent in March, from down 10.1 percent in February.
Construction outlays in March indicate that businesses may be looking ahead toward the end of recession when increased capacity is needed. And we may be seeing a rising in public construction from fiscal stimulus beginning. But the important housing sector has not yet hit bottom. However, today's pending home sales report was moderately positive, indicating that outlays in this sector could be bottoming soon. Equities rose on the news of improvement in both outlays and pending home sales.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Construction spending in February fell again but not as much as expected. Construction outlays dropped another 0.9 percent in February, after plunging 3.5 percent in January. Weakness in February was led private residential outlays, which fell 4.3 percent. The single-family subcomponent dropped 10.9 percent while the multifamily portion slipped 2.1 percent. The other two major components actually made partial rebounds. The private nonresidential component rose 0.3 percent after a 4.3 percent drop in January. Public outlays rebounded 0.8 percent, following a 2.4 percent decrease the month before. Looking ahead, the drop in the level of housing starts on average over the last three months indicates that the residential component of outlays will likely continue downward in March, pulling down overall construction spending.
Definition
The dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Why Investors Care
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Over the last year, a decline in residential outlays has pulled down year-on-year growth for overall construction outlays. Nonresidential and public outlays are positive with nonresidential actually strong.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/1 5/4 6/1 7/1 8/3 9/1 10/1 11/2 12/1
Released For: Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Previous Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Construction Spending - M/M change -0.9 % -1.0 % -2.0 % to -0.1 % 0.3 %
Construction Spending - Y/Y change -11.1 %
Highlights
Construction spending in March rebounded unexpectedly but housing is still on a downtrend. Construction outlays posted a 0.3 percent gain in March, following a 1.0 percent decrease the month before. The rise in March was much better than the market forecast for a 1.0 percent fall. The rebound in March was led by private nonresidential outlays which jumped 2.7 percent after a 0.7 increase in February. The public component also advanced 1.1 percent, following a 1.3 percent boost the month before. However, the private residential component continued its downward trend, falling 4.2 percent after a 5.9 percent plunge in February.
Within private residential outlays, the single-family component dropped a monthly 8.6 percent while the multifamily component slipped 1.1 percent in the latest month.
On a year-on-year basis, overall construction outlays weakened to down11.1 percent in March, from down 10.1 percent in February.
Construction outlays in March indicate that businesses may be looking ahead toward the end of recession when increased capacity is needed. And we may be seeing a rising in public construction from fiscal stimulus beginning. But the important housing sector has not yet hit bottom. However, today's pending home sales report was moderately positive, indicating that outlays in this sector could be bottoming soon. Equities rose on the news of improvement in both outlays and pending home sales.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Construction spending in February fell again but not as much as expected. Construction outlays dropped another 0.9 percent in February, after plunging 3.5 percent in January. Weakness in February was led private residential outlays, which fell 4.3 percent. The single-family subcomponent dropped 10.9 percent while the multifamily portion slipped 2.1 percent. The other two major components actually made partial rebounds. The private nonresidential component rose 0.3 percent after a 4.3 percent drop in January. Public outlays rebounded 0.8 percent, following a 2.4 percent decrease the month before. Looking ahead, the drop in the level of housing starts on average over the last three months indicates that the residential component of outlays will likely continue downward in March, pulling down overall construction spending.
Definition
The dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Why Investors Care
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Over the last year, a decline in residential outlays has pulled down year-on-year growth for overall construction outlays. Nonresidential and public outlays are positive with nonresidential actually strong.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/1 5/4 6/1 7/1 8/3 9/1 10/1 11/2 12/1
Released For: Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Why Investor's Care
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 due to the credit crunch and recession.
The ICSC-Goldman index is one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales series previously was known as ICSC-UBS before Goldman Sach's involvement with ICSC. The name change took place with the September 30, 2008 release.
Released on 5/5/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk5/2, 2009
Previous Actual
Store Sales - W/W change -0.7 % 0.7 %
Store Sales - Y/Y -1.7 % -0.8 %
Highlights
ICSC-Goldman said hot weather boosted same-store chain store sales by 0.7 percent in the May 2 week though the year-on-year rate remains negative at -0.8 percent. Redbook is up next.
Definition
This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 due to the credit crunch and recession.
The ICSC-Goldman index is one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales series previously was known as ICSC-UBS before Goldman Sach's involvement with ICSC. The name change took place with the September 30, 2008 release.
Released on 5/5/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk5/2, 2009
Previous Actual
Store Sales - W/W change -0.7 % 0.7 %
Store Sales - Y/Y -1.7 % -0.8 %
Highlights
ICSC-Goldman said hot weather boosted same-store chain store sales by 0.7 percent in the May 2 week though the year-on-year rate remains negative at -0.8 percent. Redbook is up next.
Definition
This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales.
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