Many economists have lowered their expectations of GDP growth in the second half of the year due to slow job creation, a rocky housing market and sluggish retail sales. Today the government will release its report on output figures for the second quarter, and many economists predict an annualized gain of 2.6%, a dip from 2.7% in the first quarter and 5.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. The New York Times (free registration) (7/29)
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Showing posts with label gdp. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gdp. Show all posts
Friday, July 30, 2010
U.S. GDP Growth Slowed to 2.4% in Second Quarter
The U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter of this year and the government said the recession was deeper than earlier believed, adding to concerns over the recovery's strength. U.S. gross domestic product rose at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 2.4% in April to June. In its first estimate of the economy's benchmark indicator, the government report showed growth was lifted by business investments and exports. Consumer spending made a smaller contribution to growth.
In the first quarter, the economy grew by 3.7%, revised up from an originally reported 2.7% increase. But growth estimates all the way back to the start of 2007 were revised lower.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703999304575398870021765454.html?mod=djemalertNEWS
In the first quarter, the economy grew by 3.7%, revised up from an originally reported 2.7% increase. But growth estimates all the way back to the start of 2007 were revised lower.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703999304575398870021765454.html?mod=djemalertNEWS
Friday, May 29, 2009
GDP
Released on 5/29/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q1:09
Previous Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR -6.1 % -5.5 % -6.4 % to -5.1 % -5.7 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 2.9 % 2.9 % 2.8 % to 2.9 % 2.8 %
Highlights
First quarter GDP was revised up moderately as the Commerce Department's first revision bumped up the quarter's growth rate to a 5.7 percent annualized decline from the initial estimate of a 6.2 percent contraction. The revised estimate was worse than the consensus forecast for a 5.5 percent decrease. The upward revision was primarily due to less negative inventories and a smaller decline in exports.. The first quarter drop in GDP followed a 6.3 percent decrease the previous quarter.
On the inflation front, the GDP price index was revised to an annualized 2.8 percent increase which was incrementally lower than the initial estimate of 2.9 percent. The markets had expected an unrevised 2.9 percent increase. The headline PCE index was unrevised with a 1.0 percent decline while core PCE inflation also was unrevised with an annualized 1.5 percent increase.
Year-on-year growth for real GDP dropped by 2.5 percent, after falling 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
Although GDP growth was not quite as good as markets expected, the shortfall was not that significant. Markets likely have put these numbers behind and are focusing on post-open numbers for the Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment index. The sentiment number may be what markets really care about today, given the importance of improved consumer sentiment for recovery to take hold any time soon.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the first quarter initial estimate came in with a sharp 6.1 percent annualized drop and followed a 6.3 percent contraction the prior quarter. A key fact from the report was that the first quarter decrease was led by a $103.7 billion cutback in inventories. Real final sales of domestic product fell only 3.4 percent while real final sales to domestic purchasers declined 5.1 percent annualized (purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced). Markets likely will be watching to see whether weakness remains in reduced inventory investment. The cutback in inventories is seen as helping set up stronger growth in coming quarters.
Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.
Previous Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR -6.1 % -5.5 % -6.4 % to -5.1 % -5.7 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 2.9 % 2.9 % 2.8 % to 2.9 % 2.8 %
Highlights
First quarter GDP was revised up moderately as the Commerce Department's first revision bumped up the quarter's growth rate to a 5.7 percent annualized decline from the initial estimate of a 6.2 percent contraction. The revised estimate was worse than the consensus forecast for a 5.5 percent decrease. The upward revision was primarily due to less negative inventories and a smaller decline in exports.. The first quarter drop in GDP followed a 6.3 percent decrease the previous quarter.
On the inflation front, the GDP price index was revised to an annualized 2.8 percent increase which was incrementally lower than the initial estimate of 2.9 percent. The markets had expected an unrevised 2.9 percent increase. The headline PCE index was unrevised with a 1.0 percent decline while core PCE inflation also was unrevised with an annualized 1.5 percent increase.
Year-on-year growth for real GDP dropped by 2.5 percent, after falling 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
Although GDP growth was not quite as good as markets expected, the shortfall was not that significant. Markets likely have put these numbers behind and are focusing on post-open numbers for the Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment index. The sentiment number may be what markets really care about today, given the importance of improved consumer sentiment for recovery to take hold any time soon.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the first quarter initial estimate came in with a sharp 6.1 percent annualized drop and followed a 6.3 percent contraction the prior quarter. A key fact from the report was that the first quarter decrease was led by a $103.7 billion cutback in inventories. Real final sales of domestic product fell only 3.4 percent while real final sales to domestic purchasers declined 5.1 percent annualized (purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced). Markets likely will be watching to see whether weakness remains in reduced inventory investment. The cutback in inventories is seen as helping set up stronger growth in coming quarters.
Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.
Monday, March 2, 2009
U.S. GDP Shrank 6.2% in Q4 2008: Economy in a L-Shaped Recession?
Real GDP contraction in Q4 2008 was revised down from -3.8% to -6.2% (most since 1982) led by a greater than initially estimated contraction in exports, consumer spending and lesser contribution from inventories. Economy contracted -0.5% in Q3 2008 and grew 1.1% in 2008
Details: Real final sales (GDP - change in private inventories) decreased -6.4%. Private inventories added 0.16% to GDP growth. Real Personal consumption fell -4.3% (most since 1980); non-residential fixed investment fell 21.1% (most since 1975); government expenditure rose +6.7%; exports fell -23.6% (steepest fall since 1971); imports fell -16%. Net exports contribution to GDP growth turned negative: -0.5%
Details: Real final sales (GDP - change in private inventories) decreased -6.4%. Private inventories added 0.16% to GDP growth. Real Personal consumption fell -4.3% (most since 1980); non-residential fixed investment fell 21.1% (most since 1975); government expenditure rose +6.7%; exports fell -23.6% (steepest fall since 1971); imports fell -16%. Net exports contribution to GDP growth turned negative: -0.5%
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Market Reflections 2/17/2009
It was concern over Japan and Europe that sank the U.S. markets on Monday. A 3.3 percent fourth-quarter contraction in Japanese GDP deepened concern over the global recession as did talk of European bank failures. Treasury International Capital data showed renewed foreign investment but not Japanese investment in Treasuries, another result of contraction in Japan. Data here showed record lows for the Empire State manufacturing report, data suggesting that the recession for the manufacturing sector continues to deepen in the first quarter.
President Obama signed the latest stimulus bill into law and, along with the Treasury Secretary, will offer tomorrow a foreclosure prevention plan for the housing sector. Other data in the session included another rock bottom reading for the housing market report from the nation's homebuilders. Bank stocks were heavily sold in the session as were shares of GM which was due after the close to report its status to the government. The Dow industrials ended at their lows, down 3.8 percent to 7,552.
Money moved further into safety including once again into gold which ended about $30 higher at $970. The dollar gained more than 2 cents against the euro to $1.2605 while yields fell sharply in the Treasury market with the 10-year down 26 basis points to 2.63 percent. Oil fell further with the March contract going off the board at $34.95. April WTI ended 8% lower at $38.55.
President Obama signed the latest stimulus bill into law and, along with the Treasury Secretary, will offer tomorrow a foreclosure prevention plan for the housing sector. Other data in the session included another rock bottom reading for the housing market report from the nation's homebuilders. Bank stocks were heavily sold in the session as were shares of GM which was due after the close to report its status to the government. The Dow industrials ended at their lows, down 3.8 percent to 7,552.
Money moved further into safety including once again into gold which ended about $30 higher at $970. The dollar gained more than 2 cents against the euro to $1.2605 while yields fell sharply in the Treasury market with the 10-year down 26 basis points to 2.63 percent. Oil fell further with the March contract going off the board at $34.95. April WTI ended 8% lower at $38.55.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Market Reflections 1/30/2009
Fourth-quarter GDP, at -3.8 percent. proved weak but far from "staggeringly" weak like the White House warned just yesterday. The Chicago purchasers' report and the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report point to continued but non-accelerating contraction so far in the first quarter. Optimism that the government will create a "bad bank" to absorb troubled bank assets, optimism that has helped the stock market over the past week, was deflated by a CNBC report that warns the plan, to be unveiled next week, lacks both details and means of funding.
Company news was headed by strong profits from oil giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil, the latter posting a record $45.2 billion profit in 2008. Oil companies are yet to show the effects of the collapse in oil prices. Despite the collapse in oil prices, refinery workers are threatening to go on strike over the weekend, news that added support, but only moderate support, to oil and gasoline prices. Oil ended little changed at $41.60.
Money moved out of risk and into safety during the session. The Dow industrials fell 1.8 percent while the dollar gained nearly 2 cents against the euro to end at $1.2794. Yields in the Treasury market moved slightly higher.
A big gainer on the day was gold which rose 2.2 percent to $929.90. But more important than the gain was a jump in open interest indicating that hot money, that is hedge funds, are back in gold.
Company news was headed by strong profits from oil giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil, the latter posting a record $45.2 billion profit in 2008. Oil companies are yet to show the effects of the collapse in oil prices. Despite the collapse in oil prices, refinery workers are threatening to go on strike over the weekend, news that added support, but only moderate support, to oil and gasoline prices. Oil ended little changed at $41.60.
Money moved out of risk and into safety during the session. The Dow industrials fell 1.8 percent while the dollar gained nearly 2 cents against the euro to end at $1.2794. Yields in the Treasury market moved slightly higher.
A big gainer on the day was gold which rose 2.2 percent to $929.90. But more important than the gain was a jump in open interest indicating that hot money, that is hedge funds, are back in gold.
Market Reflections 1/29/2009
The White House warned Thursday to expect a "staggering" contraction for fourth-quarter GDP in data to be released Friday, news that didn't help any appetite for risk. Durable goods data for December in fact showed staggering losses as did new home sales. Weekly jobless claims continue to deteriorate pointing to another month of severe payroll contraction. All the day's news sent stocks, which had shown resistance to bad news over the last few sessions, down sharply with the Dow industrials losing 2.7 percent.
Earnings news was headed by a massive $5.9 billion loss for Ford and included big losses by big and small companies alike. Earnings have proven far worse than expectations, now at -35% year-on-year vs. expectations at the beginning of the month for barely a 1% decline (data provided by the courtesy of Thomson Reuters).
Money moved back into the safety of gold which gained $20 to end back over $900 at $909.80. All the bad news isn't hurting oil where talk of a strike at Shell refineries and heavy talk of OPEC cutback compliance are keeping prices over $40. However bad conditions are here talk is building that they may be worse in Europe where questions are now being asked over the future of the euro. The dollar gained more than 2 cents against the euro to end at $1.2950.
Money moved out of the Treasury market following a poorly received 5-year auction, a massive $30 billion auction that attracted limited interest and raises questions over how many buyers are left for the government's debt. The 3-month yield rose 4 basis points to 22 basis points with the 30-year up a very steep 22 basis points to 3.63 percent.
Earnings news was headed by a massive $5.9 billion loss for Ford and included big losses by big and small companies alike. Earnings have proven far worse than expectations, now at -35% year-on-year vs. expectations at the beginning of the month for barely a 1% decline (data provided by the courtesy of Thomson Reuters).
Money moved back into the safety of gold which gained $20 to end back over $900 at $909.80. All the bad news isn't hurting oil where talk of a strike at Shell refineries and heavy talk of OPEC cutback compliance are keeping prices over $40. However bad conditions are here talk is building that they may be worse in Europe where questions are now being asked over the future of the euro. The dollar gained more than 2 cents against the euro to end at $1.2950.
Money moved out of the Treasury market following a poorly received 5-year auction, a massive $30 billion auction that attracted limited interest and raises questions over how many buyers are left for the government's debt. The 3-month yield rose 4 basis points to 22 basis points with the 30-year up a very steep 22 basis points to 3.63 percent.
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