A decline in unemployment in 39 U.S. states and the District of Columbia last month is another sign that job seekers are giving up the hunt, not that the labor market is strengthening, experts said. Only 21 states posted a net job gain in June, compared with 41 in May, the Labor Department said. Nationwide, private employers added 83,000 workers.
Another sign of a failure of current US economic policy.
Showing posts with label jobs report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jobs report. Show all posts
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Jobless claims A ray of sun or false hope?
Jobless Claims
Released on 8/13/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk8/8, 2009
The rate of layoffs is heavy but steady as first-time jobless claims were little changed in the Aug. 8 week, at 558,000 vs. 554,000 in the prior week. The numbers, in a plus, are a little bit below the four-week average, which is at 565,000. Continuing claims fell steeply, down 141,000 for data in the Aug. 1 week to 6.202 million. But the decline is hard to read, reflecting either new hirings and/or the expiration of benefits. The economy may be in recovery or at least is steady but the outlook for the jobs market, and how far it lags, is a serious concern for the economic outlook and for policy makers.
Market Consensus Before AnnouncementInitial jobless claims fell 38,000 to a much better-than-expected level of 550,000. Businesses appear to have made their major cuts in labor costs in earlier weeks and are now trimming fewer jobs. Continuing claims, however, rose 69,000 for the July 25 week to 6.310 million, indicating that it is still hard to get rehired.
DefinitionNew unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Released on 8/13/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk8/8, 2009
The rate of layoffs is heavy but steady as first-time jobless claims were little changed in the Aug. 8 week, at 558,000 vs. 554,000 in the prior week. The numbers, in a plus, are a little bit below the four-week average, which is at 565,000. Continuing claims fell steeply, down 141,000 for data in the Aug. 1 week to 6.202 million. But the decline is hard to read, reflecting either new hirings and/or the expiration of benefits. The economy may be in recovery or at least is steady but the outlook for the jobs market, and how far it lags, is a serious concern for the economic outlook and for policy makers.
Market Consensus Before AnnouncementInitial jobless claims fell 38,000 to a much better-than-expected level of 550,000. Businesses appear to have made their major cuts in labor costs in earlier weeks and are now trimming fewer jobs. Continuing claims, however, rose 69,000 for the July 25 week to 6.310 million, indicating that it is still hard to get rehired.
DefinitionNew unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Jobless Claims
Released on 6/18/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk6/13, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
4-week Moving Average - Level 621.75 K 615.75 K
New Claims - Level 601 K 610 K 590 K to 625 K 608 K
Highlights
Unemployment claims are showing tangible but not dramatic improvement in the jobs market. First-time jobless claims, at 608,000 in the June 13 week, were in line with most expectations, up 3,000 from the prior week which was revised 4,000 higher to 605,000. But the four-week average fell 7,000 to 615,750 for its lowest level since the beginning of the year. A mid-month to mid-month comparison with May, which is useful to gauge change in the household survey of the monthly employment report, shows a 28,000 improvement in the week and a 14,000 improvement in the four-week average.
Continuing claims show special progress, down a sizable 148,000 to 6.687 million to end a very long streak of increases dating back to the very beginning of the year. Also improving was the unemployment rate for insured workers, down 1 tenth to 5.0 percent and offering a signal that the overall unemployment rate, at 9.4 percent, may also be coming down in what would be a major development for the economic outlook and global markets.
But one week's data is not a month of data, making for a very limited initial response though demand for Treasuries is slipping with demand for oil and other commodities on the rise. The results may give the stock market a slight lift and they are certain to spark fresh talk of green shoots.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 24,000 in the June 6 week to 601,000. The improvement was clearly evident in the four-week average which fell 10,500 to 621,750 -- its lowest level since February. However, while job losses are slowing, the number of unemployed rose further in the latest week. Continuing claims for the May 30 week rose 59,000 to 6.816 million, another record high.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investors Care
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
4-week Moving Average - Level 621.75 K 615.75 K
New Claims - Level 601 K 610 K 590 K to 625 K 608 K
Highlights
Unemployment claims are showing tangible but not dramatic improvement in the jobs market. First-time jobless claims, at 608,000 in the June 13 week, were in line with most expectations, up 3,000 from the prior week which was revised 4,000 higher to 605,000. But the four-week average fell 7,000 to 615,750 for its lowest level since the beginning of the year. A mid-month to mid-month comparison with May, which is useful to gauge change in the household survey of the monthly employment report, shows a 28,000 improvement in the week and a 14,000 improvement in the four-week average.
Continuing claims show special progress, down a sizable 148,000 to 6.687 million to end a very long streak of increases dating back to the very beginning of the year. Also improving was the unemployment rate for insured workers, down 1 tenth to 5.0 percent and offering a signal that the overall unemployment rate, at 9.4 percent, may also be coming down in what would be a major development for the economic outlook and global markets.
But one week's data is not a month of data, making for a very limited initial response though demand for Treasuries is slipping with demand for oil and other commodities on the rise. The results may give the stock market a slight lift and they are certain to spark fresh talk of green shoots.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 24,000 in the June 6 week to 601,000. The improvement was clearly evident in the four-week average which fell 10,500 to 621,750 -- its lowest level since February. However, while job losses are slowing, the number of unemployed rose further in the latest week. Continuing claims for the May 30 week rose 59,000 to 6.816 million, another record high.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investors Care
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Jobless Claims
Released on 5/21/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk5/16, 2009
Previous Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 637 K 645 K 620 K to 675 K 631 K
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims for the May 9 week jumped 32,000 to a 637,000. The surge in claims likely reflected auto sector layoffs. But continuing claims were even worse for the May 2 week, soaring 202,000 to 6.560 million, the 17th straight rise and another record high.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investor's Care
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
Frequency
Weekly
Revisions
Weekly, data for previous week are revised to reflect more complete information.
Previous Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 637 K 645 K 620 K to 675 K 631 K
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims for the May 9 week jumped 32,000 to a 637,000. The surge in claims likely reflected auto sector layoffs. But continuing claims were even worse for the May 2 week, soaring 202,000 to 6.560 million, the 17th straight rise and another record high.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investor's Care
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
Frequency
Weekly
Revisions
Weekly, data for previous week are revised to reflect more complete information.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Jobs Jamboree Friday
It's A Jobs Jamboree Friday! But before we go there... Let's recap this week's employment numbers leading up to the Jobs Jamboree, eh? First we had the ADP report show 742K jobs were lost in March... Then yesterday we had the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims show that 669K new claims were filed, and that the previous week's 630K figure was revised up to 672K... What's really scary here folks is that the 4-week moving average is now up to 649.5K... All the King's Men and all the King's Horses that believe the Humpty Dumpty economy will be recovering by the end of this year, might want to look over those forecasts and come clean on what they really think, not what the Gov't wants them to say, to make it look like everything will be right on the night, because... These unemployment numbers are not shaping up to be anything close to a recovering economy!
There is not much good news in the March employment report, and that is not surprising. Payrolls fell 663,000. That was in-line with an expected 650,000 decline.
There were widespread losses by employment category. Education and health care managed an 8,000 increase, but manufacturing dropped 161,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate shot to 8.5% from 8.1%. It is now already well above the average 8.1% average for 2009 as forecast in the Obama budget presented just weeks ago. The trend in employment suggests that the projected deficit is thus already no longer operative.
The other components of the release also reflected weakness. The average workweek fell 0.1 to 33.2 hours. The workweek tends to lead payroll changes, as employers adjust hours before payrolls.
The manufacturing workweek fell 0.2 to 39.3. This suggests a significant reduction in industrial production in March.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%. The year-over-year change is 3.4%.
The data can be considered about as expected, but are also clearly very weak. The market has been anticipating an improved economic environment, and payrolls lag demand, so the degree to which this undermines the recent optimism is uncertain.
There is not much good news in the March employment report, and that is not surprising. Payrolls fell 663,000. That was in-line with an expected 650,000 decline.
There were widespread losses by employment category. Education and health care managed an 8,000 increase, but manufacturing dropped 161,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate shot to 8.5% from 8.1%. It is now already well above the average 8.1% average for 2009 as forecast in the Obama budget presented just weeks ago. The trend in employment suggests that the projected deficit is thus already no longer operative.
The other components of the release also reflected weakness. The average workweek fell 0.1 to 33.2 hours. The workweek tends to lead payroll changes, as employers adjust hours before payrolls.
The manufacturing workweek fell 0.2 to 39.3. This suggests a significant reduction in industrial production in March.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%. The year-over-year change is 3.4%.
The data can be considered about as expected, but are also clearly very weak. The market has been anticipating an improved economic environment, and payrolls lag demand, so the degree to which this undermines the recent optimism is uncertain.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Market Reflections 2/19/2009
Another 600,000 plus level in first-time weekly jobless claims together with another record level of continuing claims are raising talk of a 600,000 or more contraction in monthly payrolls. Employment data in the Philadelphia Fed's monthly report, like the Empire State report earlier this week, are strongly signaling deepening job losses and deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Other data in the session included a surprise 0.4 percent gain in the index of leading economic indicators, a gain reflecting the massive monetary stimulus underway that most expect will help reverse the recession. And for the most part, the markets continue to show patience in anticipation that stimulus will in fact work.
But stocks once again closed at their lows, down 1.2 percent for the Dow industrials which is now below 7,500. The dollar edged back following its recent strength, giving back about 1 cent against the euro to tend at $1.2668. Money also moved out of Treasuries where the 10-year yield rose 10 basis points to 2.85 percent.
A rare draw in crude inventories gave a big lift to oil prices where the April WTI contract ended at just under $40 for a $3 gain on the day. Gold edged back a little, down $15 to $974 amid talk that selling by weak longs, that is first-time buyers who were attracted to gold's safe-haven value, could accelerate a down move.
Other data in the session included a surprise 0.4 percent gain in the index of leading economic indicators, a gain reflecting the massive monetary stimulus underway that most expect will help reverse the recession. And for the most part, the markets continue to show patience in anticipation that stimulus will in fact work.
But stocks once again closed at their lows, down 1.2 percent for the Dow industrials which is now below 7,500. The dollar edged back following its recent strength, giving back about 1 cent against the euro to tend at $1.2668. Money also moved out of Treasuries where the 10-year yield rose 10 basis points to 2.85 percent.
A rare draw in crude inventories gave a big lift to oil prices where the April WTI contract ended at just under $40 for a $3 gain on the day. Gold edged back a little, down $15 to $974 amid talk that selling by weak longs, that is first-time buyers who were attracted to gold's safe-haven value, could accelerate a down move.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Market Reflections 2/2/2009
Economic data included another rise in the savings rate, a rise that reflects concern over jobs and one that is chocking off consumer spending. Construction spending on housing continues to fall while spending on commercial and government projects is now on the decline. ISM data on the manufacturing sector showed slowing rates of contraction but nevertheless point to six months of remaining contraction and a full year of contraction for factory jobs. Company news included another run of layoffs, this one led by retailer Macy's.
approach of Friday's jobs report, one that is expected to show another month of giant losses, kept markets quiet. The Dow industrials fell 0.8 percent while the dollar gave back 1/2 cent of its recent gains against the euro to end at $1.2840. There was a moderate safe-haven bid for long term Treasuries with the 30-year yield down 14 basis points to 3.47 percent.
The risk of a refinery strike seems remote, judging at least by oil prices which slipped 3 percent to $40.37. Gold gave back 3% of its recent gains to end at $903.80.
approach of Friday's jobs report, one that is expected to show another month of giant losses, kept markets quiet. The Dow industrials fell 0.8 percent while the dollar gave back 1/2 cent of its recent gains against the euro to end at $1.2840. There was a moderate safe-haven bid for long term Treasuries with the 30-year yield down 14 basis points to 3.47 percent.
The risk of a refinery strike seems remote, judging at least by oil prices which slipped 3 percent to $40.37. Gold gave back 3% of its recent gains to end at $903.80.
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