By: Michael Vodicka
Zacks Investment Research
Have you ever wondered why some stocks skyrocket on a positive earnings surprise while others fall off a cliff? In this article we are going to tackle this little-understood issue. Better yet, I will share with you two ways to profit from earnings surprises. More on that later.
3 Reasons Stocks Can Drop After an Earnings Surprise
Estimates vs. Whisper Number: The standard definition of an earnings surprise is when actual earnings come in higher than earnings estimates. But those estimates are the “published” numbers from the brokerage analysts. Quite often investors tend to develop their own unique set of expectations based on sentiment, sometimes referred to as a “whisper number”. If there is too much optimism ahead of the release, then actual earnings will need to be a blowout in order to appease the market’s inflated expectations. This is the most common reason why some stocks fall after a supposed earnings beat.
Quality of Earnings: The highest quality earnings come from having robust revenue growth. This means that the company’s products or services are in high demand and should stay that way. However, far too much of the earnings being reported these days are generated from cost cutting and other "accounting gimmickry". The problem is that the benefits of these moves don’t last. When the market gets a whiff that the earnings are unsustainable, no matter how strong the beat, shares will most likely drop.
Forward Guidance: Plain and simple, when you buy a stock you are taking an ownership position. And what owners of companies care about is the stream of future earnings. So if a company beats earnings for the quarter just reported, but warns that future quarters will see lower earnings, then that stock will go down…and go down fast.
2 Ways to Make Money on Earnings Surprises
So now that we have outlined things that can wrong after an earnings surprise, let's shift gears and talk about something even more important: how to turn a profit from earnings surprises. Here are two ways to go about it.
Good Way: Buy shares in any company that had an earnings surprise and then rose the day following the news. These stocks experience what academics call the "Post Earnings Announcement Drift". Studies clearly show that these stocks usually outperform the market over the next 9 months. Conversely, you should sell any stock in your portfolio that misses its earnings number as it is likely to underperform the market for the next few quarters. The downside of this approach is that there are literally thousands of stocks to choose from every quarter.
Best Way: Look for those rare opportunities where investors simply guessed wrong about a company's earnings prospects. Specifically, find companies with shares that were declining for about a week prior to the earnings report, yet amazingly produced a big earnings surprise. Sure, the price will jump at the open following the news, but our research clearly shows that the stock will continue to rise over the next couple weeks as investors play catch up.
Where to Find These Stocks
Most of the information to find these "Best Way" earnings surprisers is publically available and free. But I don't know of anyone that puts it together in an easy-to-use format that will help you consistently find these winners.
Mike focuses on finding the best momentum stocks for Zacks.com customers. He is also the Editor in charge of the Zacks Surprise Trader service. Learn more here:
http://www.zacks.com/registration/surprise_trader_long_form.php?adid=ST_WEW_MIKEV_10.17.09
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Mistakes Traders Make
An interesting survey has just found its way into my inbox, courtesy of Ratio Trading. The survey of more than 500 experienced futures brokers asked what, in their experience, caused most traders to lose money. There are some repetitions in the list, but it is nevertheless a worthwhile exercise to give it a quick read to again remind ourselves of the many investment pitfalls out there.
1. Many futures traders trade without a plan. They do not define specific risk and profit objectives before trading. Even if they establish a plan, they “second guess” it and don’t stick to it, particularly if the trade is a loss. Consequently, they overtrade and use their equity to the limit (are undercapitalized), which puts them in a squeeze and forces them to liquidate positions.
Usually, they liquidate the good trades and keep the bad ones.
2. Many traders don’t realize the news they hear and read has already been discounted by the market.
3. After several profitable trades, many speculators become wild and aggressive. They base their trades on hunches and long shots, rather than sound fundamental and technical reasoning, or put their money into one deal that “can’t fail.”
4. Traders often try to carry too big a position with too little capital, and trade too frequently for the size of the account.
5. Some traders try to “beat the market” by day trading, nervous scalping, and getting greedy.
6. They fail to pre-define risk, add to a losing position, and fail to use stops.
7 .They frequently have a directional bias; for example, always wanting to be long.
8. Lack of experience in the market causes many traders to become emotionally and/or financially committed to one trade, and unwilling or unable to take a loss. They may be unable to admit they have made a mistake, or they look at the market on too short a time frame.
9. They overtrade.
10. Many traders can’t (or don’t) take the small losses. They often stick with a loser until it really hurts, then take the loss. This is an undisciplined approach…a trader needs to develop and stick with a system.
11. Many traders get a fundamental case and hang onto it, even after the market technically turns. Only believe fundamentals as long as the technical signals follow. Both must agree.
12. Many traders break a cardinal rule: “Cut losses short. Let profits run.”
13. Many people trade with their hearts instead of their heads. For some traders, adversity (or success) distorts judgment. That’s why they should have a plan first, and stick to it.
14. Often traders have bad timing, and not enough capital to survive the shake out.
15. Too many traders perceive futures markets as an intuitive arena. The inability to distinguish between price fluctuations which reflect a fundamental change and those which represent an interim change often causes losses.
16. Not following a disciplined trading program leads to accepting large losses and small profits. Many traders do not define offensive and defensive plans when an initial position is taken.
17. Emotion makes many traders hold a loser too long. Many traders don’t discipline themselves to take small losses and big gains.
18. Too many traders are under financed, and get washed out at the extremes.
19. Greed causes some traders to allow profits to dwindle into losses while hoping for larger profits.
This is really a lack of discipline. Also, having too many trades on at one time and overtrading for the amount of capital involved can stem from greed.
20. Trying to trade inactive markets is dangerous.
Source: Ratio Trading, September 4, 2009.
1. Many futures traders trade without a plan. They do not define specific risk and profit objectives before trading. Even if they establish a plan, they “second guess” it and don’t stick to it, particularly if the trade is a loss. Consequently, they overtrade and use their equity to the limit (are undercapitalized), which puts them in a squeeze and forces them to liquidate positions.
Usually, they liquidate the good trades and keep the bad ones.
2. Many traders don’t realize the news they hear and read has already been discounted by the market.
3. After several profitable trades, many speculators become wild and aggressive. They base their trades on hunches and long shots, rather than sound fundamental and technical reasoning, or put their money into one deal that “can’t fail.”
4. Traders often try to carry too big a position with too little capital, and trade too frequently for the size of the account.
5. Some traders try to “beat the market” by day trading, nervous scalping, and getting greedy.
6. They fail to pre-define risk, add to a losing position, and fail to use stops.
7 .They frequently have a directional bias; for example, always wanting to be long.
8. Lack of experience in the market causes many traders to become emotionally and/or financially committed to one trade, and unwilling or unable to take a loss. They may be unable to admit they have made a mistake, or they look at the market on too short a time frame.
9. They overtrade.
10. Many traders can’t (or don’t) take the small losses. They often stick with a loser until it really hurts, then take the loss. This is an undisciplined approach…a trader needs to develop and stick with a system.
11. Many traders get a fundamental case and hang onto it, even after the market technically turns. Only believe fundamentals as long as the technical signals follow. Both must agree.
12. Many traders break a cardinal rule: “Cut losses short. Let profits run.”
13. Many people trade with their hearts instead of their heads. For some traders, adversity (or success) distorts judgment. That’s why they should have a plan first, and stick to it.
14. Often traders have bad timing, and not enough capital to survive the shake out.
15. Too many traders perceive futures markets as an intuitive arena. The inability to distinguish between price fluctuations which reflect a fundamental change and those which represent an interim change often causes losses.
16. Not following a disciplined trading program leads to accepting large losses and small profits. Many traders do not define offensive and defensive plans when an initial position is taken.
17. Emotion makes many traders hold a loser too long. Many traders don’t discipline themselves to take small losses and big gains.
18. Too many traders are under financed, and get washed out at the extremes.
19. Greed causes some traders to allow profits to dwindle into losses while hoping for larger profits.
This is really a lack of discipline. Also, having too many trades on at one time and overtrading for the amount of capital involved can stem from greed.
20. Trying to trade inactive markets is dangerous.
Source: Ratio Trading, September 4, 2009.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Trading & Investing Rules: A reminder
I thought it might be a good time to review some wise advice from some proven brilliant traders as introduced to us in Jack Schwagers great book, “Trading Wizards”:
Bruce Kovner
• Do not overtrade and use proper position size.
• The market usually leads because there are people who know more than you do.
• I assume that the price for a market on any given day is the correct price.
• Do not personalize the markets.
Michael Marcus
• Patience…stay with a position until the trend changes…be patient enough to wait for a clearly defined situation
• Always use stops
• Always pick a point you will get out before you get in
• The best trades have three things going for them
o First – the fundamentals suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand
o Second – the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that the fundamentals suggest
o Third – when the news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone.
Ed Seykota
• Longevity is the key to success.
• In order of importance to me are: 1) the long-term trend, 2) the current chart pattern, and 3) picking a good spot to buy or sell.
• Common patterns transcend individual market behavior
• Trading rules:
o Cut losses
o Ride winners
o Keep bets small
o Follow the rules without question
o Know when to break the rules
• Everybody gets what they want out of the market
That is about the best you can do…I think.
Harry Truman once said: “The only thing new in the world is the history we don’t know.” I think we can apply that to trading: “The only thing new in the world is re-learning the key market adages shared with us by the truly great traders that have gone before us.”
Bruce Kovner
• Do not overtrade and use proper position size.
• The market usually leads because there are people who know more than you do.
• I assume that the price for a market on any given day is the correct price.
• Do not personalize the markets.
Michael Marcus
• Patience…stay with a position until the trend changes…be patient enough to wait for a clearly defined situation
• Always use stops
• Always pick a point you will get out before you get in
• The best trades have three things going for them
o First – the fundamentals suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand
o Second – the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that the fundamentals suggest
o Third – when the news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone.
Ed Seykota
• Longevity is the key to success.
• In order of importance to me are: 1) the long-term trend, 2) the current chart pattern, and 3) picking a good spot to buy or sell.
• Common patterns transcend individual market behavior
• Trading rules:
o Cut losses
o Ride winners
o Keep bets small
o Follow the rules without question
o Know when to break the rules
• Everybody gets what they want out of the market
That is about the best you can do…I think.
Harry Truman once said: “The only thing new in the world is the history we don’t know.” I think we can apply that to trading: “The only thing new in the world is re-learning the key market adages shared with us by the truly great traders that have gone before us.”
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
A Trader's Best Friend
By Brian Hunt, Editor in Chief, Stansberry Research
Of all the friends in the world a trader can have, one of the most valuable is the concept of position sizing – a strategy that tells you how much money to put into a given trade.
Most great traders will tell you to never risk more than 2% of your trading capital on any one position. One percent is better for most folks. A half a percent is also good.
So here's how the math works...
Let's say you're a trader with a $50,000 "grubstake." And you're thinking about buying Intel at $20 per share.
How many shares should you buy? Buy too much and you could suffer catastrophic damage if, say, an accounting scandal strikes Intel. Buy too little and you're not capitalizing on your great idea.
Here's where intelligent position sizing comes in. Here's where the concept of "R" comes into play.
"R" is the amount of money you're willing to risk on any one position. You can easily calculate R from two other numbers: 1) your total account size and 2) the percent of your account you'll risk on any given position.
Let's say you want to go "middle of the road" with your risk tolerance. You're going to risk 1% of your $50,000 account on each idea. Your R is $500. (If you wanted to dial up your risk to 2% of your account, R would be $1,000.)
OK, so you've already decided you want to put a 25% protective stop loss on your Intel position. Now you can work backward and determine how many shares to buy.
Your first step is always to divide 100 by your stop loss number: 100/25 = 4.
Now, take that number and multiply it by your R: 4 x $500 = $2,000.
So you should buy $2,000 worth of Intel... At $20 per share, that's 100 shares. If Intel declines 25%, you'll lose $500 and exit the position.
That's it. That's all it takes to practice intelligent position sizing.
Now... what if you want to use a tighter stop loss, say 10% on your Intel position? Let's do the math...
100/10 (your stop loss percentage) = 10
10 x $500 (your R) = $5,000
$5,000/$20 (share price) = 250 shares
Tighter stop loss, same amount of risk, same R of $500.
Now let's say you'd like to trade Intel options. You're bullish, so you're going to buy Intel calls. The options you want to buy are $2. Yahoo lists options prices by price per share, but option contracts are for 100 shares... So one of your option contracts will cost $200.
A straight call option position is much more volatile than a straight stock position. So you could set a wide stop loss of 50% on your call position. A wider stop will mean a smaller position size. Take a look:
100/50 (your stop loss percentage) = 2
2 x $500 (your R) = $1,000
$1,000/$200 (price per call option) = 5 option contracts
Different stop loss, different position size, different kind of asset, same R of $500.
You can use the concept of R to "normalize" risk for any kind of position... from crude oil futures to currencies to microcaps to Microsoft. If you're trading a riskier, more volatile asset, increase your stop-loss percentage, decrease your position size, and keep your R steady. That way, you're risking exactly as much money on each of your ideas.
Our examples put R at 1% of your total portfolio size. Folks new to the trading game would be smart to start with 0.5% of their account. That way, you can be wrong 10 times in a row and lose just 5% of your account.
To have the importance of intelligent position sizing drilled into your head over and over again by the best traders ever, read Market Wizards by Jack Schwager. For a fuller explanation of R and intelligent position sizing, read Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp. Both are incredibly important books for traders.
Good trading,
Brian
Of all the friends in the world a trader can have, one of the most valuable is the concept of position sizing – a strategy that tells you how much money to put into a given trade.
Most great traders will tell you to never risk more than 2% of your trading capital on any one position. One percent is better for most folks. A half a percent is also good.
So here's how the math works...
Let's say you're a trader with a $50,000 "grubstake." And you're thinking about buying Intel at $20 per share.
How many shares should you buy? Buy too much and you could suffer catastrophic damage if, say, an accounting scandal strikes Intel. Buy too little and you're not capitalizing on your great idea.
Here's where intelligent position sizing comes in. Here's where the concept of "R" comes into play.
"R" is the amount of money you're willing to risk on any one position. You can easily calculate R from two other numbers: 1) your total account size and 2) the percent of your account you'll risk on any given position.
Let's say you want to go "middle of the road" with your risk tolerance. You're going to risk 1% of your $50,000 account on each idea. Your R is $500. (If you wanted to dial up your risk to 2% of your account, R would be $1,000.)
OK, so you've already decided you want to put a 25% protective stop loss on your Intel position. Now you can work backward and determine how many shares to buy.
Your first step is always to divide 100 by your stop loss number: 100/25 = 4.
Now, take that number and multiply it by your R: 4 x $500 = $2,000.
So you should buy $2,000 worth of Intel... At $20 per share, that's 100 shares. If Intel declines 25%, you'll lose $500 and exit the position.
That's it. That's all it takes to practice intelligent position sizing.
Now... what if you want to use a tighter stop loss, say 10% on your Intel position? Let's do the math...
100/10 (your stop loss percentage) = 10
10 x $500 (your R) = $5,000
$5,000/$20 (share price) = 250 shares
Tighter stop loss, same amount of risk, same R of $500.
Now let's say you'd like to trade Intel options. You're bullish, so you're going to buy Intel calls. The options you want to buy are $2. Yahoo lists options prices by price per share, but option contracts are for 100 shares... So one of your option contracts will cost $200.
A straight call option position is much more volatile than a straight stock position. So you could set a wide stop loss of 50% on your call position. A wider stop will mean a smaller position size. Take a look:
100/50 (your stop loss percentage) = 2
2 x $500 (your R) = $1,000
$1,000/$200 (price per call option) = 5 option contracts
Different stop loss, different position size, different kind of asset, same R of $500.
You can use the concept of R to "normalize" risk for any kind of position... from crude oil futures to currencies to microcaps to Microsoft. If you're trading a riskier, more volatile asset, increase your stop-loss percentage, decrease your position size, and keep your R steady. That way, you're risking exactly as much money on each of your ideas.
Our examples put R at 1% of your total portfolio size. Folks new to the trading game would be smart to start with 0.5% of their account. That way, you can be wrong 10 times in a row and lose just 5% of your account.
To have the importance of intelligent position sizing drilled into your head over and over again by the best traders ever, read Market Wizards by Jack Schwager. For a fuller explanation of R and intelligent position sizing, read Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp. Both are incredibly important books for traders.
Good trading,
Brian
Thursday, April 2, 2009
DENNIS GARTMAN’S NOT-SO-SIMPLE RULES OF TRADING
DENNIS GARTMAN’S NOT-SO-SIMPLE RULES OF TRADING
1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position… not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading’s carcinogen; it is trading’s driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!
2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.
3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.
4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.
5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it however, and fewer still embrace it.
6. “Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent.” These are Keynes’ words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.
8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors turn to profits; in “bad times,” the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we’ve known have the simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!
11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, “When they are cryin’, you should be buyin’! And when they are yellin’, you should be sellin’!”
12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are; we accept it as fact and we move on.
13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow… usually hard upon and always with detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.
14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year… and our profits grow accordingly.
15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a “secret” to trading (and of life), this is it.
16. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken…. but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and still prosper.
1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position… not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading’s carcinogen; it is trading’s driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!
2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.
3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.
4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.
5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it however, and fewer still embrace it.
6. “Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent.” These are Keynes’ words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.
8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors turn to profits; in “bad times,” the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we’ve known have the simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!
11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, “When they are cryin’, you should be buyin’! And when they are yellin’, you should be sellin’!”
12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are; we accept it as fact and we move on.
13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow… usually hard upon and always with detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.
14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year… and our profits grow accordingly.
15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a “secret” to trading (and of life), this is it.
16. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken…. but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and still prosper.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Gold
The up move in gold has stalled.
It looks like the $90 barrier for GLD( Spider Gold Trust - Exchange Traded Fund) held a third time since September. The $50 level is likewise formidable resistance for RGLD (Royal Gold Inc.)
Some support on the charts exists at $81 for GLD and at $45 and then $41 for RGLD.
Lets assume these are the current trading ranges. An hypothetical purchase of RGLD at the bottom of this range ($41) in mid December and a sale at year end at $49 would have made a simple 19.5% gain in about a month and a half. Repurchasing it again at $41 in mid January (14th) and selling it yesterday at $49 would have made another 19.5% simple gain, this time in less thana month.
The moral of the story: a little time spent looking at a chart on Stockcharts.com or bigcharts.com will help identify these ranges. It is possible to make a little money in these dire times with simple trades like thie.
DISCLAIMER: this is an illustration. Trading is not suitable for everyone, especially the desperate, and there is a considerable risk of loss, possibly all of the money bet. Get help from a knowledgeable professional, because these current patterns may not repeat and probably wont.
Nothing written here is meant as investment advice and we are not responsible in any way for your use of this information. Thank you legal department.
It looks like the $90 barrier for GLD( Spider Gold Trust - Exchange Traded Fund) held a third time since September. The $50 level is likewise formidable resistance for RGLD (Royal Gold Inc.)
Some support on the charts exists at $81 for GLD and at $45 and then $41 for RGLD.
Lets assume these are the current trading ranges. An hypothetical purchase of RGLD at the bottom of this range ($41) in mid December and a sale at year end at $49 would have made a simple 19.5% gain in about a month and a half. Repurchasing it again at $41 in mid January (14th) and selling it yesterday at $49 would have made another 19.5% simple gain, this time in less thana month.
The moral of the story: a little time spent looking at a chart on Stockcharts.com or bigcharts.com will help identify these ranges. It is possible to make a little money in these dire times with simple trades like thie.
DISCLAIMER: this is an illustration. Trading is not suitable for everyone, especially the desperate, and there is a considerable risk of loss, possibly all of the money bet. Get help from a knowledgeable professional, because these current patterns may not repeat and probably wont.
Nothing written here is meant as investment advice and we are not responsible in any way for your use of this information. Thank you legal department.
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