Showing posts with label market returns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market returns. Show all posts

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Stocks yield less than U.S. gov't bonds!

From Bespoke Investment Group:
Since the March 9th low, the indicated dividend yield of the S&P 500 has dropped from 4.12% to 3.12%. At the same time, the yield on the "risk-free" 10-Year Treasury Note has risen from a low of just over 2% to its current level of 3.15%.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Another reason weve seen the market low for now

About a year ago I wrote about how the stock market resembles a dog on a leash. Prices fluctuate from the trend, sometimes in extreme spikes which mark important inflection points.

I thought I’d revisit the idea by taking a long term look at the S&P 500 and comparing how it has fared to its own long term (200 moving average). To equalize things and make it comparable over time, I expressed the divergence from the mean as a percentage:



Looking at the data from 1950 to present, here are the rare times when the S&P 500 Index (SPX) traded at an extreme relative to its simple 200 day moving average:

July 26th 1962 -22.62%
May 26th 1970 -23.18%
October 4th 1974 -28.58%
October 19th 1987 -24.75%
Sept 21st 2001 -22.11%
July 23rd 2002 -26.98%
October 7th, 2002 -23.84%
November 20th 2008 -39.79%
March 9th 2009 -36.53%
The dates should be easily recognizable since they correspond to almost every single major turning point in recent market history. The numbers represent the percentage relative to the long term moving average. So on July 26th, 1962 the S&P 500 traded 22.62% below its simple 200 day moving average.

Looking at the data this way, you easily gain perspective on just how epic the recent market action has been. Not since 1929 has the market veered off so dramatically from its long term path. Put another way, if the November 2008 low doesn’t mark a significant inflection point, it will be the first time.

A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that 60 trading days after these dates shown above the market is always higher, sometimes significantly:

7.95%
10.03%
12.93%
10.72%
6.14%
9.54%
8.3%
20.9%
I’ll revisit this when 60 days have passed from March 9th, 2009
Even if we assume that the November lows will indeed mark a significant low for the S&P 500, there is no reason to believe that prices would simply climb higher from here onward. We could enter a protracted sideways market, or we could also slowly drip lower, revisiting the previous lows. But it is difficult to argue that what we have just witnessed isn’t but a monumental and rare market event that has characterized important turning points in the past.

The biggest names on Wall Street expect stocks to soar this year!!!

Contrarians take note: Wall Street's average end of year price target is 956.5. This is around 20% higher that where we are today.

In other words, big firms like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Credit Suisse expect stocks to soar in the next nine months. If you're feeling bullish, then you're smack dab in the middle of the crowd.

1st Quarter 2009 results

You’d think with a large portion of the Western world’s retirement funds vaporized over the past 18 months -- there’d be a lot more blue hairs in the streets. The Dow and S&P 500 closed out the first quarter yesterday with an 11% loss. That’s the sixth quarter of losses in a row, the longest streak since 1970.

Friday, March 13, 2009

WEEK ENDING 3/13/09

Overview
This week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged that “The world is suffering through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, a crisis that has precipitated a sharp downturn in the global economy,” during a speech on reforming the financial sector.
more:http://payden.com/library/weeklyMarketUpdateE.aspx#overview

US MARKETS
Treasury/Economics
U.S. Treasury yields continue to settle in to a trading range, exhibiting little volatility this week as investors pause to assess the direction of economic growth and inflation.
more...http://payden.com/library/weeklyMarketUpdateE.aspx#overview

Large-Cap Equities
The stock market rallied for the first time in five weeks due to positive comments from banks regarding profits for the quarter.
more...http://payden.com/library/weeklyMarketUpdateE.aspx#overview

Corporate Bonds
Investment grade primary activity remained rampant as the search for any incremental yield continues to be the major driving factor in the mind of investors.
more...http://payden.com/library/weeklyMarketUpdateE.aspx#overview

Mortgage-Backed Securities
The agency mortgage market benefited from a recovery in equity valuations and benign movement in Treasury yields.

Municipal Bonds
Municipal bond market weakness continued this week. While shorter-maturities were broadly unchanged over the course of the week, the 10-year maturity range showed the softness in the market.

High-Yield
The markedly improved tone in the global equity markets since the beginning of the week is aiding with the stability of the high yield market. more...

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Western European Equities
Stocks in Western Europe gained ground over the past week. The stocks with the best performance were banks (+21.8%) and insurance (+17.2%).

Eastern European Equities
The CECE index of equities traded in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) gained +10.8% this week, while the Russian stock index RTS went up by +13.2%.

Global Bonds and Currencies
Major sovereign bond markets were mostly weaker in the past week, with the exception of the long-end of the UK Gilt curve, which continued to benefit as the Bank of England (BoE) began its £75 billion (US$106 billion) program of quantitative easing.

Emerging-Market Bonds
Emerging market dollar-pay debt spreads tightened this week as a result of the more positive tone to risk markets. For more information, please contact 800 5-PAYDEN or visit payden.com.

If you have difficulties viewing this e-mail and would prefer the Weekly Market Update in plain text format, please e-mail us at paydenrygel@payden-rygel.com. To unsubscribe from this email, please email us at unsubscribe@payden-rygel.com.




Have a great weekend!

Monday, March 9, 2009

Index Summary 3-6-09

● The major market indices were lower this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (1) fell 6.17 percent. The S&P
500 Stock Index (2) lost 7.03 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite (3) finished 6.10 percent lower.
● Barra Growth (4) outperformed Barra Value (5) as Barra Value finished 8.83 percent lower while Barra Growth
declined 5.55 percent. The Russell 2000 (6) closed the week with a loss of 9.76 percent.
● For the week, the Hang Seng Composite (7) finished lower by 4.66 percent; Taiwan (8) rose by 2.12 percent, and
the Kospi (9) fell 0.75 percent.
● The 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.88 percent, down 17 basis points for the week.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Stock Market Update 2/26/09

16:25 ET Dow -80.05 at 7270.89, Nasdaq -16.40 at 1425.43, S&P -8.24 at 764.90 :
[BRIEFING.COM] A rally in financial stocks helped the broader market overcome a fit of early weakness, but the advance proved unsustainable as stocks finished the session more than 1% lower.

Stocks spent the majority of the session trading in the red as traders opted to take profits from Tuesday's 4% advance. The selling effort came amid a lack of positive headlines and continued uncertainty in the financial system, which failed to improve after President Obama gave his first speech before a joint meeting of Congress.

The need for additional capital amid such uncertainty led both Lincoln National (LNC 11.21, -1.83) and Allstate (ALL 17.57, -1.07) to cut their quarterly dividends. Meanwhile, an article in The Wall Street Journal seemed to suggest Wells Fargo (WFC 13.40, +0.35) should cut its dividend to help improve the bank's capital ratios.

The Fed and Treasury released key details of its bank stress-test plan. Officials will assess potential losses at banks and estimated resources to absorb those losses.

Capital provided under the plan will come in the form of preferred stock that is convertible into common equity at a 10% discount to the price prevailing prior to Feb. 9. Securities under the plan will carry a 9% dividend yield and will be convertible at the issuer's option.

The plan essentially backstops financial institutions, though the banks receiving capital will be required to submit monthly reports on their lending and will be subject to restrictions on paying quarterly common stock dividends, repurchasing shares, and pursuing cash acquisitions.

Financial stocks gave ground in the wake of the announcement, but eventually rallied to a 3.8% gain. Financials finished the session with a 0.5% loss as sellers pushed back, but that was still better than the 6.5% loss that financials traded with at their session lows.

Nine of the 10 sectors finished lower. Telecom (+1.0%) was the only sector in the S&P 500 to finish with a gain.

There was only a trickle of earnings announcements ahead of the opening bell, none of which received much attention from the broader market. Still, trading volume was above-average as nearly 1.8 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE.

The only item on the economic calendar was a bleak January existing homes sales report. Sales fell more than expected to their lowest level since 1997. Many of the sales were distressed, contributing to a near 15% year-over-year drop in the median home price. Inventory supply increased slightly to 9.6 months.

..Nasdaq 100 -0.9%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -1.4%. ..Russell 2000 -2.7%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1208/1878. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 799/1863.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Be a realist

We are in a bear market.. it might even be called a Depression

So far, the 2007-2009 bear market seems to be a dead ringer for the ’29-’32 decline.

The truth is hard to deny, and I’m not much good at sugarcoating things anyway. As Mississippi blues man R.L. Burnside once sang: “It’s bad, you know.”

No Need for a Window Ledge Just Yet

This is the reality we now face. No one knows how much longer the pain will last – or when a new bull market will finally kick in. The shiny happy stuff is wearing thin... I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know here.
But even then... even if our current woes wind up matching the ’29-’32 period blow for blow in terms of pure grizzly destructiveness... the news still isn’t all bad.
Stocks could be on a highway to hell and the following would still be true:


In the roaring grizzly of ’29-’32, it’s true that stocks declined a staggering 89% before hitting bottom. But even in that three-year period of epic decline, there were half a dozen tradable rallies of 20% or more.

Bloomberg columnist and money manager John Dorfman recently conducted an interesting study on “waterfall declines” – defined as “sudden drops of 20 percent or more in a few days or weeks.” Among other things, Dorfman concluded that, based on ten 20th-century instances of waterfall declines, positive post-decline returns averaged 24% in 12 months.

Not all businesses suffered in the great bear of ’29-’32. Some went right on making money for shareholders. Some actually saw their profits grow, not shrink. And not all stocks or industry groups went down either... some just kept going up. Homestake Mining, a gold mining stock, hit a new all-time high in 1932.

Gold miners did just fine in the depths of the Great Depression.
Nor were they the only bright spot.
  • According to The Wall Street Journal, the logging industry served up a cumulative 120.1% return between 1930 and 1933.
  • Miscellaneous manufacturing returned 74.2%.
  • Cigars and tobacco, 33.4%. In the depths of the Great Depression.

Catching my drift here?
Unless you’re scanning the sky for signs of the apocalypse, there’s no reason to think the world is going to end. Even in the worst bear market the modern world has ever known – the grinding days of the Great Depression – there were plenty of fat, juicy, tradable rallies to exploit... and plenty of investment opportunities in stocks that went up, not down, over the period.

Life Goes On

When people think about the “Great Depression” – or whisper about it in hushed tones – a lot of times they get caught up in the drama of the phrase.

The less you actually know about something, the more menacing it can sound – like the monsters in the closet (or under the bed) when you were a kid. Remember wondering what might be in that closet and not knowing, freaking out a little as your imagination ran wild? (I sure do.)

When it comes to hard times and apocalyptic economic scenarios, adults can be like kids in that regard. The imagination runs wild and it becomes natural to freak out a little.

But when amorphous anxiety is replaced with knowledge and insight, oftentimes the fear recedes.

The reality of the market, as far as recessions and even depressions go, is that life goes on. Profit goes on.
Opportunity still exists.

Neither Optimist nor Pessimist

When people ask me if I’m an optimist or a pessimist, I usually say “Neither... I’m a realist.” I reject the notion of being a “permanent” anything.

Flexibility is a virtue.

Right now it feels like there are two “permanent” camps out there in market commentary land: optimist and pessimist.

The optimist camp says, “Don’t worry, be happy... things will turn around soon... just hold on to your index funds and your ABC and your XYZ because things will be great again before you know it!”

Meanwhile the pessimist camp says, “Are you kidding? It’s all going to hell in a handbasket... the market is a fool’s dream... put your head between your legs and kiss your butt goodbye, because clipping coupons is about all anyone can do.”

I say, reject both those foolish schools. Neither is in touch with reality.

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Market performance figures

Market Levels

Friday* Last Week Dec. 31 2008 1 Yr Ago
Dow Jones Ind. Avg. 8,255 8,001 8,776 12,247
S&P 500 864 826 903 1,337
Nasdaq 100 1,580 1,476 1,577 2,293
The Russell 2000 464 444 499 703
DJ STOXX Europe 199 191 198 314
Nikkei Index 8,077 7,994 8,860 13,207
Fed Funds Target 0-0.25% 0-0.25% 0-0.25% 4.50%
2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 0.97% 0.95% 0.77% 2.05%
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 2.95% 2.84% 2.21% 3.76%
U.S.$ / Euro 1.29 1.28 1.40 1.45
U.S.$ / British Pound 1.48 1.45 1.46 1.94
Yen / U.S.$ 91.88 89.92 90.64 107.49
Gold ($/oz) $913.30 $927.85 $882.05 $910.51
Oil $39.20 $41.68 $44.60 $88.11
*Levels as of 10:45 a.m. PST

MARKET RETURNS

Year to Date (1/1/09 - 2/6/09)

Dow Jones Industrial Avg -5.49%

S&P 500 -4.38%

NASDAQ 0.18%

Russell 2000 -7.06%

MSCI World Index -7.31%

DJ STOXX Europe 600 (euro) 0.15%

Year to Date (1/1/00 - 2/5/09)

90 Day T-Bill -0.01%

2-Year Treasury -0.18%

10-Year Treasury -4.97%

ML High Yield Index 5.97%

JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified 0.62%

JP Morgan Global Hedged -1.59%