Tuesday, July 6, 2010

The US stimulus resembles the ineffective Japan model. Same Results inevitable?

From the Financial Times:

Fiscal stimulus was equivalent to 4.4 per cent of world growth last year but will amount to a negative 1.6 per cent next year, according to data from JPMorgan. “Beyond the current quarter, growth momentum will be coming down as fiscal policy moves from net stimulus to drag,” the bank’s recent Global Data Watch warns …

Still, the problem with much of the fiscal policy is about substance as well as scale. How is it possible to spend almost $800bn and not have more lasting effects to show for it?

Unfortunately, the US fiscal spending plan more closely resembles that of Japan than China – and is likely to have the same minimal or even counter-productive impact

American citizens are increasingly voting with their feet. In Hong Kong, so many US passport holders fear the deluge of US taxes that will inevitably follow the spending binge that it can now apparently take as much as 11 months to secure an appointment at the US consulate to surrender US citizenship.

And the conclusion drawn:
Given the lack of lasting effects from the US stimulus other than a huge tax bill down the (poorly paved) road, the lines at the consulate in Hong Kong are likely to get longer.

No comments:

Post a Comment