From Richard Russell in Dow Theory Letters:
learn more about Dow Theory Letters here http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/
...As I've said a thousand times, Fed Chief Bernanke will absolutely not accept deflation...
Shrewd gold-accumulators are well aware of [this]. As the deflationary and deleveraging forces press on the US economy, the Bernanke Fed is ready to devalue the US dollar in its ("whatever it takes") battle to hold back deflation.
Let's boil the whole thing down to three sentences.
(1)The Fed will not tolerate the growing forces of deflation.
(2) To combat the deflationary forces, the Fed will devalue the dollar by printing trillions more of Federal fiat money.
(3) Once it is realized that the Fed is on the path to devalue the dollar, there will be a panic to buy and own gold.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Government not true to its Founding Principles?
Rather than remaining true to its founding principles, successive leaderships have led the country deeper and deeper into foreign entanglements, and further and further down the road of populism of the sort that has left Europe gasping for breath.
The situation has now reached a crossroads. In one direction, the direction we here at Casey Research steadily advocate, there is real hope. That hope is based on remembering the principles of self-reliance that made America so economically powerful in its early career – a haven with a relatively short list of reasonable laws and regulations, administered by a minimal bureaucracy supported by a modest and simplified tax code.
Economic historian Niall Ferguson recently commented on the surprising lack of dialogue about this path in America. You can, and should, watch this video by clicking on the headline above.
The situation has now reached a crossroads. In one direction, the direction we here at Casey Research steadily advocate, there is real hope. That hope is based on remembering the principles of self-reliance that made America so economically powerful in its early career – a haven with a relatively short list of reasonable laws and regulations, administered by a minimal bureaucracy supported by a modest and simplified tax code.
Economic historian Niall Ferguson recently commented on the surprising lack of dialogue about this path in America. You can, and should, watch this video by clicking on the headline above.
The Gold Bull market
The U.S. turned 234 years old yesterday, and yet over half of the nation's money supply was created since Helicopter Ben took over the flight controls four years ago. No wonder gold is in a full fledged bull market.
David A. Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc.
David A. Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc.
Allstate CEO Says State Borrowing 'Out of Control
This should be no surprise to you, dear reader. “Nobody has the intestinal fortitude to actually move forward to try to change anything,” CEO Wilson said of government debt at the federal, state and local levels. “They’re just sort of sitting there waiting for disaster to happen.” And disaster is exactly what they're going to get.
Read the whole story here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/allstate-ceo-says-government-borrowing-out-of-control-munis-may-suffer.html
or just click on the headline above
Read the whole story here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/allstate-ceo-says-government-borrowing-out-of-control-munis-may-suffer.html
or just click on the headline above
Recovery does not require more stimulus, Fed officials say
Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and Richard Fisher, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, indicated that although economic growth is cooling, more stimulus is not necessary. Hoenig also reiterated his stance that the Fed should increase its key interest rate to 1% to keep inflation at bay and counter the threat of asset-price bubbles. Meanwhile, Fisher said additional asset purchases by the Fed are not needed.
Bloomberg
Yes Mr Hoenig, it is time for the Fed to stop buying financial assets and to start buying real assets... try real property so that the Dollar is backed by something in addition to gold.
Bloomberg
Yes Mr Hoenig, it is time for the Fed to stop buying financial assets and to start buying real assets... try real property so that the Dollar is backed by something in addition to gold.
China won't flee U.S. debt and shift to gold, a regulator says
China will not use its $2.45 trillion in foreign reserves to pressure other nations and has no intention of dumping U.S. Treasury securities, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said. "Any increase or decrease in our holdings of US Treasuries is a normal investment operation," according to a statement from the foreign exchange regulator. The agency said China is a long-term investor that "doesn't seek the power to control recipients of its investment."
Xinhuanet.com
Were his fingers crossed behind his back as he made this statement?
Click on the headline to see a full story
Xinhuanet.com
Were his fingers crossed behind his back as he made this statement?
Click on the headline to see a full story
Fed worries about economic slowdown, considers taking a stimulus role
The U.S. Federal Reserve is considering taking a stronger role in boosting economic growth, with Congress deadlocked on how to cope with a troubling slowdown. Options being weighed include buying more mortgage securities and cutting interest paid to banks that are putting funds on deposit with the central bank from 0.25% to zero, giving financial institutions more incentive to loan.
The Washington Post.
As usual the Federal Government is culpablly and dangerously late in diagnosing the problem. Of course banks are not lending to the public.
They would be sued for imprudent business practises by shareholder activists. After all, it is the height of managerial irresponsibility to make loans to risky borrowers when a risk free, high profit margin alternative borrower - The US Treasury - is panting at the door.
No, Mr Geithner, any first year MBA student will identify correctly that the problem is NOT the interest rate paid to banks, it is the very incentive to replace bad mortgage assets with pristine capital so regulatory capital levels are acceptable.
Until the real problem, which is the continual drop in value of the real estate collateral that is the bulk of assets of lending institutions is addressed this kind of Govertnment meddling will make the problem worse and worse.
The Washington Post.
As usual the Federal Government is culpablly and dangerously late in diagnosing the problem. Of course banks are not lending to the public.
They would be sued for imprudent business practises by shareholder activists. After all, it is the height of managerial irresponsibility to make loans to risky borrowers when a risk free, high profit margin alternative borrower - The US Treasury - is panting at the door.
No, Mr Geithner, any first year MBA student will identify correctly that the problem is NOT the interest rate paid to banks, it is the very incentive to replace bad mortgage assets with pristine capital so regulatory capital levels are acceptable.
Until the real problem, which is the continual drop in value of the real estate collateral that is the bulk of assets of lending institutions is addressed this kind of Govertnment meddling will make the problem worse and worse.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Avertible catastrophe
This is from The Financial Post of Canada.Full story linked above.
Lawrence Soloman makes the case ( I find it very plausible) that the contamination from the BP oil spill disaster was entirely avoidable.
The implication is that BP is responsible for the rig explosion and its consequences, but the US Federal Government headed by Barack Obama is culpable in the disaster that the contamination has caused on the Gulf Coast.
Lawrence maintains that the bulk of the contamination could have been avoided by taking up the Dutch offer of FREE equipment and expertise that was offered immediately the spill extent was known.
Had we accepted the help there would likely have been little or no oil reaching shore.
Lawrence maintains that side political issues prompted the US to refuse the offers of help and that refusal is the proximate cause of the vast contamination that subsequently occurred.
He is probably right. In an emergency I want the people with the expertise to put the fire out. I want them on the spot as soon as possible...the very last thing I want is a political intervention. Remember Nero?
He fiddled while Rome burned. Just like our emperor.
Lawrence Soloman makes the case ( I find it very plausible) that the contamination from the BP oil spill disaster was entirely avoidable.
The implication is that BP is responsible for the rig explosion and its consequences, but the US Federal Government headed by Barack Obama is culpable in the disaster that the contamination has caused on the Gulf Coast.
Lawrence maintains that the bulk of the contamination could have been avoided by taking up the Dutch offer of FREE equipment and expertise that was offered immediately the spill extent was known.
Had we accepted the help there would likely have been little or no oil reaching shore.
Lawrence maintains that side political issues prompted the US to refuse the offers of help and that refusal is the proximate cause of the vast contamination that subsequently occurred.
He is probably right. In an emergency I want the people with the expertise to put the fire out. I want them on the spot as soon as possible...the very last thing I want is a political intervention. Remember Nero?
He fiddled while Rome burned. Just like our emperor.
DOW up 2.82% or nearly 275 points!
WHOPPEEEE!
3-month Market Momentum is trending UP and getting stronger;
3-week Market Momentum is trending UP and getting stronger;
Short term momentum is currently supporting this momentum trend
The Fearless ultra-short term forecast is for The Market to continue present trend
The Fearless short term forecast is for The Market to continue present trend
Price is UP and Volume is UP.
We have a first tentative BUY signal for tomorrow ( it triggered on the close today)
Lets see if there is any follow through tomorrow.
3-month Market Momentum is trending UP and getting stronger;
3-week Market Momentum is trending UP and getting stronger;
Short term momentum is currently supporting this momentum trend
The Fearless ultra-short term forecast is for The Market to continue present trend
The Fearless short term forecast is for The Market to continue present trend
Price is UP and Volume is UP.
We have a first tentative BUY signal for tomorrow ( it triggered on the close today)
Lets see if there is any follow through tomorrow.
Answer to the financial crisis is less regulation, an economist says
Forrest Capie, professor emeritus of economic history at the Cass Business School, said government officials and regulators dealing with the financial crisis should find inspiration from the 19th century. "The story I have to tell you is a story of caution, depression and the world of debt," Capie said. "Caution is the big lesson to be learnt from the financial crisis, and the other is there is nothing new." He said the answer to the crisis is not over-regulation but an appropriate, proportionate application of regulation.
Risk.net/Risk magazine
Risk.net/Risk magazine
Young workers' jobless rate in the U.S. is reminiscent of the 1930s
A bleak reality awaits young Americans trying to get into the workforce, with 14% not finding a job and 23% not even trying anymore. The total, 37% without employment, is in a range that the U.S. hasn't seen since the 1930s.
The New York Times
The New York Times
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
The US stimulus resembles the ineffective Japan model. Same Results inevitable?
From the Financial Times:
Fiscal stimulus was equivalent to 4.4 per cent of world growth last year but will amount to a negative 1.6 per cent next year, according to data from JPMorgan. “Beyond the current quarter, growth momentum will be coming down as fiscal policy moves from net stimulus to drag,” the bank’s recent Global Data Watch warns …
Still, the problem with much of the fiscal policy is about substance as well as scale. How is it possible to spend almost $800bn and not have more lasting effects to show for it?
Unfortunately, the US fiscal spending plan more closely resembles that of Japan than China – and is likely to have the same minimal or even counter-productive impact
American citizens are increasingly voting with their feet. In Hong Kong, so many US passport holders fear the deluge of US taxes that will inevitably follow the spending binge that it can now apparently take as much as 11 months to secure an appointment at the US consulate to surrender US citizenship.
And the conclusion drawn:
Given the lack of lasting effects from the US stimulus other than a huge tax bill down the (poorly paved) road, the lines at the consulate in Hong Kong are likely to get longer.
Fiscal stimulus was equivalent to 4.4 per cent of world growth last year but will amount to a negative 1.6 per cent next year, according to data from JPMorgan. “Beyond the current quarter, growth momentum will be coming down as fiscal policy moves from net stimulus to drag,” the bank’s recent Global Data Watch warns …
Still, the problem with much of the fiscal policy is about substance as well as scale. How is it possible to spend almost $800bn and not have more lasting effects to show for it?
Unfortunately, the US fiscal spending plan more closely resembles that of Japan than China – and is likely to have the same minimal or even counter-productive impact
American citizens are increasingly voting with their feet. In Hong Kong, so many US passport holders fear the deluge of US taxes that will inevitably follow the spending binge that it can now apparently take as much as 11 months to secure an appointment at the US consulate to surrender US citizenship.
And the conclusion drawn:
Given the lack of lasting effects from the US stimulus other than a huge tax bill down the (poorly paved) road, the lines at the consulate in Hong Kong are likely to get longer.
Earnest Hemingway on solving our problems
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists. - Earnest Hemmingway
Analysis: China makes progress in turning yuan into global currency
China is moving systematically toward its goal of becoming a major force in the financial system by expanding the role of the yuan to become a global currency, according to Reuters. The nation extended a pilot program to allow importers and exporters to settle international transactions in the yuan. The government is creating opportunities to invest within China using the yuan, including yuan-denominated corporate bonds and insurance policies. Reuters
The idea of disbanding Fannie and Freddie raises questions
U.S. government officials and housing experts are discussing the idea of eliminating or overhauling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Either move would cause significant change for the banking system, and they also prompt the question of who will step in to buy mortgage-backed securities if Fannie and Freddie are not guaranteeing the mortgage payments. CNBC
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Bernanke and Geithner, did they deliberately mis-inform Congress?
From a story in Bloomberg today
Fed Made Taxpayers Unwitting Junk-Bond Buyers
By Caroline Salas, Craig Torres and Shannon D. Harrington - Jul 1, 2010
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and then-New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators on April 3, 2008, that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.” They didn’t share everything the Fed knew about the money.
“Either the Fed did not understand the distressed state of some of the assets that it was purchasing from banks and is only now discovering their true value, or it understood that it was buying weak assets and attempted to obscure that fact,” Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in an e-mail when informed about the credit quality of holdings in the Maiden Lane LLC portfolio. The committee held the April 3 hearing.
If "the Fed did not understand the distressed state of some of the assets that it was purchasing from banks.." then we are allowing incompetent entities and disingenuous people to write rules and spend taxpayer money on another scam perpetrated on we the people by the smartest manipulators on earth.
Fed Made Taxpayers Unwitting Junk-Bond Buyers
By Caroline Salas, Craig Torres and Shannon D. Harrington - Jul 1, 2010
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and then-New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators on April 3, 2008, that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.” They didn’t share everything the Fed knew about the money.
“Either the Fed did not understand the distressed state of some of the assets that it was purchasing from banks and is only now discovering their true value, or it understood that it was buying weak assets and attempted to obscure that fact,” Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in an e-mail when informed about the credit quality of holdings in the Maiden Lane LLC portfolio. The committee held the April 3 hearing.
If "the Fed did not understand the distressed state of some of the assets that it was purchasing from banks.." then we are allowing incompetent entities and disingenuous people to write rules and spend taxpayer money on another scam perpetrated on we the people by the smartest manipulators on earth.
Foreclosed Homes Sell at 27% Discount as Supply Grows
From a story by Dan Levy - Jun 30, 2010 on Bloomberg News, excerpts below
"Homes in the foreclosure process sold at an average 27 percent discount in the first quarter as almost a third of all U.S. transactions involved properties in some stage of mortgage distress, according to RealtyTrac Inc."
"The average price of a distressed property was $171,971, according to the Irvine, California-based data seller."
“The discount will probably stay between 25 percent and 30 percent as lenders carefully manage the number of new foreclosure actions in order to avoid flooding the market,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president for marketing, said in an interview.
"The discount reflects the average sales price of homes in the foreclosure process compared with the average sales price of properties not in distress. About 31 percent of all U.S. sales in the quarter were of homes in some stage of foreclosure, RealtyTrac said. "
"Home foreclosures set a record for the second straight month in May, with increases in every state, as lenders stepped up property seizures, RealtyTrac said earlier this month. Bank repossessions climbed 44 percent from a year earlier and will probably set a record in the second quarter, the company said."
You have to ask yourself: are economic conditions that much worse or have banks found another outlet to dispose of these distressed properties?
Do I smell the stink of vulture investors again? How about buying a property for a third or so less than it is worth, slapping on a coat of paint and reselling it at a 50% profit (still way below what its market value might be)? And you dont even have to watch This Old House to find out how, or even get your hands dirty...there is an unlimited supply of undocumented workers literally dying to work for less than minimum wage paid in cash under the table to do the dirty work.
Who has the kind of resources to do this? Those dastardly hedge funds? Wilbur Ross ( owner of a mortgage servicer empire with inside access to the cherries of distressed homes) Carl Icahn? George Soros ( who undoubtedly has the ear of the Administration)?
And of course, those banks are being paid by the Government (TARP remember) using our tax dollars and servicers and banks are being given free money incentives to "try" and modify mortgages. These are the same banks that bought insurance against default on these mortgages from AIG.
And they were paid out 100% by the NY Federal Reserve under Tim Geithner, on these contracts so that they possibly have already been made whole on these home mortgages that they are now foreclosing.Do they even own them anymore? Shouldnt AIG have been given the collateral?
Double dipping, nay triple dipping comes to mind. The mortgage crisis was caused by irresponsible lending...but it was legal lending for the most part.
Today it appears that a nasty unintended consequence of the bailout of the banks is very likely a collusion between Government (in its burocratic ignorance), the Too Big To Fail crowd,the uber-Rich, those nasty Wall Street Types and compliant Politicians creating legislation written by lobbyists for those same beneficiaries that is setting up another scandalous rip off of the helpless populace.
"Homes in the foreclosure process sold at an average 27 percent discount in the first quarter as almost a third of all U.S. transactions involved properties in some stage of mortgage distress, according to RealtyTrac Inc."
"The average price of a distressed property was $171,971, according to the Irvine, California-based data seller."
“The discount will probably stay between 25 percent and 30 percent as lenders carefully manage the number of new foreclosure actions in order to avoid flooding the market,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president for marketing, said in an interview.
"The discount reflects the average sales price of homes in the foreclosure process compared with the average sales price of properties not in distress. About 31 percent of all U.S. sales in the quarter were of homes in some stage of foreclosure, RealtyTrac said. "
"Home foreclosures set a record for the second straight month in May, with increases in every state, as lenders stepped up property seizures, RealtyTrac said earlier this month. Bank repossessions climbed 44 percent from a year earlier and will probably set a record in the second quarter, the company said."
You have to ask yourself: are economic conditions that much worse or have banks found another outlet to dispose of these distressed properties?
Do I smell the stink of vulture investors again? How about buying a property for a third or so less than it is worth, slapping on a coat of paint and reselling it at a 50% profit (still way below what its market value might be)? And you dont even have to watch This Old House to find out how, or even get your hands dirty...there is an unlimited supply of undocumented workers literally dying to work for less than minimum wage paid in cash under the table to do the dirty work.
Who has the kind of resources to do this? Those dastardly hedge funds? Wilbur Ross ( owner of a mortgage servicer empire with inside access to the cherries of distressed homes) Carl Icahn? George Soros ( who undoubtedly has the ear of the Administration)?
And of course, those banks are being paid by the Government (TARP remember) using our tax dollars and servicers and banks are being given free money incentives to "try" and modify mortgages. These are the same banks that bought insurance against default on these mortgages from AIG.
And they were paid out 100% by the NY Federal Reserve under Tim Geithner, on these contracts so that they possibly have already been made whole on these home mortgages that they are now foreclosing.Do they even own them anymore? Shouldnt AIG have been given the collateral?
Double dipping, nay triple dipping comes to mind. The mortgage crisis was caused by irresponsible lending...but it was legal lending for the most part.
Today it appears that a nasty unintended consequence of the bailout of the banks is very likely a collusion between Government (in its burocratic ignorance), the Too Big To Fail crowd,the uber-Rich, those nasty Wall Street Types and compliant Politicians creating legislation written by lobbyists for those same beneficiaries that is setting up another scandalous rip off of the helpless populace.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Municipal Bonds..a bargain or a huge risk waiting to swat you?
The following are excerpts from a Bloomberg article (link above)
Municipal bonds underperformed U.S. Treasuries in the first half as default speculation drove state and local government yields to the highest level relative to government bonds in 13 months.
Ten-year municipal bond yields rose to 100 percent of Treasuries for the first time since May 2009, from 80 percent six months ago, according to Municipal Market Advisors data.
Financial pressure on states and municipalities has built as revenue fell in the wake of the recession. More than two- thirds of states had a drop in revenue last quarter over the same period in 2009, the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government said this month. States will have confronted $296.6 billion of budget deficits from 2009 to 2012, the National Governors Association and National Association of State Budget Officers said.
Municipal bonds underperformed U.S. Treasuries in the first half as default speculation drove state and local government yields to the highest level relative to government bonds in 13 months.
Ten-year municipal bond yields rose to 100 percent of Treasuries for the first time since May 2009, from 80 percent six months ago, according to Municipal Market Advisors data.
Financial pressure on states and municipalities has built as revenue fell in the wake of the recession. More than two- thirds of states had a drop in revenue last quarter over the same period in 2009, the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government said this month. States will have confronted $296.6 billion of budget deficits from 2009 to 2012, the National Governors Association and National Association of State Budget Officers said.
Some thoughts on Bankers, Keynes and the markets
A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him. - John Maynard Keynes, 1931 ....Sound familiar?
Internet gets the brain thinking short term
Research increasingly suggests that one of the prices paid for the convenience of the Internet is a fundamental change in the way the brain operates. "Hypermedia"
skimming, skipping and clicking is redirecting the brain's energy to short-term thinking and away from a deeper, long-term process. "Only by combining data stored deep within our brains can we forge new ideas,"
The Economist notes. "No amount of magpie assemblage can compensate for this slow, synthetic creativity."
The Economist
Its not the data you look at, its the information you get from studying that data.
This takes contemplation...think about it!
CoreCap
skimming, skipping and clicking is redirecting the brain's energy to short-term thinking and away from a deeper, long-term process. "Only by combining data stored deep within our brains can we forge new ideas,"
The Economist notes. "No amount of magpie assemblage can compensate for this slow, synthetic creativity."
The Economist
Its not the data you look at, its the information you get from studying that data.
This takes contemplation...think about it!
CoreCap
"Do more of what's working, and less of what's not."
Dennis Gartman, Louis Navellier,the late Louis Rukeyser ( remember him on Friday's Wall Street Week?) and many other successful traders and advisors recommend you do this.
CoreCap has always recommended you do this too. Its the right advice. Gartman has oft opined that half the gain you will get in a bull market you will get in the last 10% of its span.
So if you find what sector, security, commodity etc is in an uptrend and you buy into that trend, your chances of making big gains are very good.
So where's an uptrend now? What's working today?
Try these sectors (based on our market monitoring process):
Metals & Mining - think gold stocks:El Dorado Gold, Barrick, Buenaventura and Randgold come to mind as does GDX the Market Vectors gold mining fund and Silver Wheaton of course. Gold stocks are cheap relative to gold. Most people don't own them. And, importantly, gold stocks are working right now. Remember, you want to own more of what is working and less of what is not.
Banking - Corpbanca, Bancolombia and locally Credicorp and M&T Bank look interesting
Computer Software - Cognizant is worth looking to see if it suits you and also Microsoft
Computer Hardware - Apple of course! Verizon will be a service provider for all things Apple come January 2011
DISCLAIMER
These are suggestions for your further inquiry (with your investment advisor please) NOT reccommendations, which may not be suitable for you. CoreCap thinks these are working now. He could be wrong (not the first time) and he claims no responsibility if you act on these suggestions.
CoreCap has always recommended you do this too. Its the right advice. Gartman has oft opined that half the gain you will get in a bull market you will get in the last 10% of its span.
So if you find what sector, security, commodity etc is in an uptrend and you buy into that trend, your chances of making big gains are very good.
So where's an uptrend now? What's working today?
Try these sectors (based on our market monitoring process):
Metals & Mining - think gold stocks:El Dorado Gold, Barrick, Buenaventura and Randgold come to mind as does GDX the Market Vectors gold mining fund and Silver Wheaton of course. Gold stocks are cheap relative to gold. Most people don't own them. And, importantly, gold stocks are working right now. Remember, you want to own more of what is working and less of what is not.
Banking - Corpbanca, Bancolombia and locally Credicorp and M&T Bank look interesting
Computer Software - Cognizant is worth looking to see if it suits you and also Microsoft
Computer Hardware - Apple of course! Verizon will be a service provider for all things Apple come January 2011
DISCLAIMER
These are suggestions for your further inquiry (with your investment advisor please) NOT reccommendations, which may not be suitable for you. CoreCap thinks these are working now. He could be wrong (not the first time) and he claims no responsibility if you act on these suggestions.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Crisis of Capitalism?
Here it is in a nutshell: the economic problems we face today are a failure of capitalism ....and we should explore a new order.
I am NOT a socialist but this animation is engaging and thought provoking.
I am NOT a socialist but this animation is engaging and thought provoking.
Americans' savings rate rises to highest level in almost a year
Americans pushed up their savings rate last month to 4%, the highest level in nearly a year. Meanwhile, consumer spending increased 0.2% compared with April. Almost all of the economic growth in the U.S. is coming from spending by the government or businesses that are getting stimulus money, analysts said. The Washington Post
This is not high by international standards and not very healthy in my opinion. I had been looking for the rate to move to 7-8%; I have been wrong.
This is not high by international standards and not very healthy in my opinion. I had been looking for the rate to move to 7-8%; I have been wrong.
Monday, June 28, 2010
The European PIIGS problem clearly explained
Clark and Dawes ...; the equivalent to Who's on First
you gotta watchy this
you gotta watchy this
A little sanity in the pursuit of Big Tobacco
A win for MO (Altria). Huge penalties avoided.This makes muni tobacco settlement bonds more secfure too.
U.S. Bid for Tobacco Company Damages Rejected by Supreme Court
2010-06-28 14:05:09.230 GMT
By Greg Stohr
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Supreme Court rejected the Justice Department’s bid for as much as $280 billion in tobacco company profits, refusing to hear an Obama administration appeal in the decade-old government suit against the industry.
The rebuff all but ensures that the racketeering suit first pressed by former President Bill Clinton’s administration won’t result in financial penalties against Altria Group Inc.’s Philip Morris USA and Reynolds American Inc.’s R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. It’s the second time the high court has refused to hear government arguments in the case.
The court also rejected a group of industry appeals aimed at overturning a trial judge’s finding that the cigarette makers defrauded the public about the dangers of smoking for more than 50 years.
U.S. District Judge Gladys Kessler’s ruling could open companies to continuing judicial oversight and impose more stringent limits on their business practices than the 2009 law that let the Food and Drug Administration regulate tobacco.
For Related News and Information:
For more Supreme Court stories: NI SUP BN.
For top legal news: TOP LAW.
--Editors: Jim Rubin, Laurie Asseo.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Greg Stohr in Washington at (1) (202) 624-1841 or gstohr@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Mark Silva at 1-202-654-4315 or msilva34@bloomberg.net.
U.S. Bid for Tobacco Company Damages Rejected by Supreme Court
2010-06-28 14:05:09.230 GMT
By Greg Stohr
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Supreme Court rejected the Justice Department’s bid for as much as $280 billion in tobacco company profits, refusing to hear an Obama administration appeal in the decade-old government suit against the industry.
The rebuff all but ensures that the racketeering suit first pressed by former President Bill Clinton’s administration won’t result in financial penalties against Altria Group Inc.’s Philip Morris USA and Reynolds American Inc.’s R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. It’s the second time the high court has refused to hear government arguments in the case.
The court also rejected a group of industry appeals aimed at overturning a trial judge’s finding that the cigarette makers defrauded the public about the dangers of smoking for more than 50 years.
U.S. District Judge Gladys Kessler’s ruling could open companies to continuing judicial oversight and impose more stringent limits on their business practices than the 2009 law that let the Food and Drug Administration regulate tobacco.
For Related News and Information:
For more Supreme Court stories: NI SUP BN
For top legal news: TOP LAW
--Editors: Jim Rubin, Laurie Asseo.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Greg Stohr in Washington at (1) (202) 624-1841 or gstohr@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Mark Silva at 1-202-654-4315 or msilva34@bloomberg.net.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Who is on First?
Go on, take a break, click on the title above and enjoy a little classic Abbott and Costello.
By the way, the intro dancers include a guy that looks like a very young ex-president. See if you can find him.
By the way, the intro dancers include a guy that looks like a very young ex-president. See if you can find him.
Summary Of Major Provisions In Financial Overhaul Bill
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- The sweeping financial overhaul legislation negotiators wrapped up early Friday morning would constitute the biggest overhaul of U.S. financial regulations since the 1930s. The legislation, broadly, is designed to close the regulatory gaps and end the speculative trading practices that contributed to the 2008 financial market crisis. Major components of the bill include:
NEW REGULATORY AUTHORITY: Gives federal regulators new authority to seize and break up large troubled financial firms without taxpayer bailouts in cases where the firm's collapse could destabilize the financial system. Sets up a liquidation procedure run by the FDIC. Treasury would supply funds to cover the up-front costs of winding down the failed firm, but the government would have to put a "repayment plan" in place. Regulators would recoup any losses incurred from the wind-down afterwards by assessing fees on financial firms with more than $50 billion in assets.
FINANCIAL STABILITY COUNCIL: Would establish a new, 10-member Financial Stability Oversight Council, comprising existing regulators charged with monitoring and addressing system-wide risks to the nation's financial stability. Among its duties, the council would recommend to the Fed stricter capital, leverage and other rules for large, complex financial firms that are judged to threaten the financial system. In extreme cases, it would have the power to break up financial firms.
VOLCKER RULE: Would curb propriety trading by the largest financial firms, though banks could make de minimus investments in hedge and private-equity funds. Those investments would be limited to 3% or less of a bank's Tier 1 capital. Banks would be prohibited from bailing out a fund in which they are invested.
DERIVATIVES: Would for the first time extend comprehensive regulation to the over-the-counter derivatives market, including the trading of the products and the companies that sell them. Would require many routine derivatives to be traded on exchanges and routed through clearinghouses. Customized swaps could still be traded over-the-counter, but they would have to be reported to central repositories so regulators could get a broader picture of what's going on in the market. Would impose new capital, margin, reporting, record-keeping and business conduct rules on firms that deal in derivatives.
SWAPS SPIN-OFF: Would require banks to spin off only their riskiest derivatives trading operations into affiliates, in a late-night compromise struck to scale back a controversial provision championed by Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D., Ark.). Banks would be able to retain operations for interest-rate swaps, foreign-exchange swaps, and gold and silver swaps among others. Firms would be required to push trading in agriculture, uncleared commodities, most metals, and energy swaps to their affiliates.
CONSUMER AGENCY: Would create a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau within the Federal Reserve, with rulemaking and some enforcement power over banks and non-banks that offer consumer financial products or services such as credit cards, mortgages and other loans. The new watchdog would have authority to examine and enforce regulations for all mortgage-related businesses; banks and credit unions with assets of more than $10 billion in assets; pay day lenders, check cashers and certain other non-bank financial firms. Auto dealers won a hard-fought exemption from the Bureau's reach.
PRE-EMPTION: Would allow states to impose their own stricter consumer protection laws on national banks. National banks could seek exemption from state laws on a case-by-case, state-by-state basis if a state law "prevents or significantly interferes" with the bank's ability to do business - a higher bar than federal regulators currently must meet to pre-empt state rules. State attorneys-general would have power to enforce certain rules issued by the new consumer financial protection bureau.
FEDERAL RESERVE OVERSIGHT: Would mandate a one-time audit of all of the Fed's emergency lending programs from the financial crisis. The Fed also would disclose, with a two-year lag, details of loans it makes to banks through its discount window as well as open market transactions - activity the Fed currently doesn't disclose. Would eliminate the role of bankers in picking presidents at the Fed's 12 regional banks. Would also limit the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending authority by barring the central bank from using it to aid an individual firm, requiring the Treasury Secretary to approve any lending program and prohibiting the participation of insolvent firms.
OVERSIGHT CHANGES: Would eliminate the Office of Thrift Supervision, but after a fight, the Fed retained oversight of thousands of community banks. Would empower the Fed to supervise the largest, most complex financial companies to ensure that the government understands the risks and complexities of firms that could pose a risk to the broader economy.
BANK CAPITAL STANDARDS: Would set new size- and risk-based capital standards, including a prohibition on large bank holding companies treating trust-preferred securities as Tier 1 capital, a key measure of a bank's strength. Would grandfather trust-preferred securities for banks with less than $15 billion in assets, enabling them to continue treating the securities as Tier 1 capital. Larger banks would have five years to phase-out trust-preferred securities as Tier 1 capital.
BANK FEE: Would mandate the Oversight Council to impose a special assessment on the nation's largest financial firms to raise up to $19 billion to offset the cost of the bill. The fee would apply to financial institutions with more than $ 50 billion in assets and hedge funds with more than $10 billion in assets, with entities deemed high risk paying more than safer ones. The fee would be collected by the FDIC over five years, with the funds placed in separate fund in the Treasury and would not be usable for any other purpose for 25 years, after which any left-over funds would go to pay down the national debt.
DEPOSIT INSURANCE: Would permanently increase the level of federal deposit insurance for banks, thrifts and credit unions to $250,000, retroactive to January 1, 2008.
MORTGAGES: Would establish new national minimum underwriting standards for home mortgages. Lenders would be required for the first time to ensure that a borrower is able to repay a home loan by verifying the borrower's income, credit history and job status. Would ban payments to brokers for steering borrowers to high-priced loans.
SECURITIZATION: Banks that package loans would, broadly, be required to keep 5% of the credit risk on their balance sheets. Would direct bank regulators to exempt from the rules a class of low-risk mortgages that meet certain minimum standards. Regulators could permit alternative risk-retention arrangements for the commercial mortgage-backed securities market.
CREDIT RATING AGENCIES: Would revamp the credit-rating industry, establishing a new quasi-government entity designed to address conflicts of interest inherent in the credit-rating business after the SEC studies the matter. Would also allow investors to sue credit-rating firms for a "knowing or reckless" failure to conduct a reasonable investigation, a lower liability standard than the firms were lobbying to get. Would establish a new oversight office within the SEC with the ability to fine ratings agencies and empowers the SEC to deregister a firm that gives too many bad ratings over time.
INVESTMENT ADVICE: Would give the SEC the authority to raise standards for broker dealers who give investment advice after the agency studies the issue. Would permit, but not require, the SEC to hold broker dealers to a fiduciary duty similar to the standard to which investment advisers are held.
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE: Would give shareholders of public corporations a non- binding vote on executive pay and "golden parachutes," and would give the SEC the authority to grant shareholders proxy access to nominate directors.
HEDGE FUNDS: Would require hedge funds and private equity funds to register with the SEC as investment advisers and to provide information on trades to help regulators monitor systemic risk.
INSURANCE: Would create a new Federal Insurance Office within the Treasury Department to monitor the insurance industry, recommending to the systemic risk council insurers that should be treated as systemically important. Would require the new office to report to Congress on ways to modernize insurance regulation.
-By Victoria McGrane, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9267; victoria.mcgrane@ dowjones.com
(Michael R. Crittenden, Sarah N. Lynch and Jessica Holzer contributed to this story)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-25-100616ET
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
NEW REGULATORY AUTHORITY: Gives federal regulators new authority to seize and break up large troubled financial firms without taxpayer bailouts in cases where the firm's collapse could destabilize the financial system. Sets up a liquidation procedure run by the FDIC. Treasury would supply funds to cover the up-front costs of winding down the failed firm, but the government would have to put a "repayment plan" in place. Regulators would recoup any losses incurred from the wind-down afterwards by assessing fees on financial firms with more than $50 billion in assets.
FINANCIAL STABILITY COUNCIL: Would establish a new, 10-member Financial Stability Oversight Council, comprising existing regulators charged with monitoring and addressing system-wide risks to the nation's financial stability. Among its duties, the council would recommend to the Fed stricter capital, leverage and other rules for large, complex financial firms that are judged to threaten the financial system. In extreme cases, it would have the power to break up financial firms.
VOLCKER RULE: Would curb propriety trading by the largest financial firms, though banks could make de minimus investments in hedge and private-equity funds. Those investments would be limited to 3% or less of a bank's Tier 1 capital. Banks would be prohibited from bailing out a fund in which they are invested.
DERIVATIVES: Would for the first time extend comprehensive regulation to the over-the-counter derivatives market, including the trading of the products and the companies that sell them. Would require many routine derivatives to be traded on exchanges and routed through clearinghouses. Customized swaps could still be traded over-the-counter, but they would have to be reported to central repositories so regulators could get a broader picture of what's going on in the market. Would impose new capital, margin, reporting, record-keeping and business conduct rules on firms that deal in derivatives.
SWAPS SPIN-OFF: Would require banks to spin off only their riskiest derivatives trading operations into affiliates, in a late-night compromise struck to scale back a controversial provision championed by Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D., Ark.). Banks would be able to retain operations for interest-rate swaps, foreign-exchange swaps, and gold and silver swaps among others. Firms would be required to push trading in agriculture, uncleared commodities, most metals, and energy swaps to their affiliates.
CONSUMER AGENCY: Would create a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau within the Federal Reserve, with rulemaking and some enforcement power over banks and non-banks that offer consumer financial products or services such as credit cards, mortgages and other loans. The new watchdog would have authority to examine and enforce regulations for all mortgage-related businesses; banks and credit unions with assets of more than $10 billion in assets; pay day lenders, check cashers and certain other non-bank financial firms. Auto dealers won a hard-fought exemption from the Bureau's reach.
PRE-EMPTION: Would allow states to impose their own stricter consumer protection laws on national banks. National banks could seek exemption from state laws on a case-by-case, state-by-state basis if a state law "prevents or significantly interferes" with the bank's ability to do business - a higher bar than federal regulators currently must meet to pre-empt state rules. State attorneys-general would have power to enforce certain rules issued by the new consumer financial protection bureau.
FEDERAL RESERVE OVERSIGHT: Would mandate a one-time audit of all of the Fed's emergency lending programs from the financial crisis. The Fed also would disclose, with a two-year lag, details of loans it makes to banks through its discount window as well as open market transactions - activity the Fed currently doesn't disclose. Would eliminate the role of bankers in picking presidents at the Fed's 12 regional banks. Would also limit the Fed's 13(3) emergency lending authority by barring the central bank from using it to aid an individual firm, requiring the Treasury Secretary to approve any lending program and prohibiting the participation of insolvent firms.
OVERSIGHT CHANGES: Would eliminate the Office of Thrift Supervision, but after a fight, the Fed retained oversight of thousands of community banks. Would empower the Fed to supervise the largest, most complex financial companies to ensure that the government understands the risks and complexities of firms that could pose a risk to the broader economy.
BANK CAPITAL STANDARDS: Would set new size- and risk-based capital standards, including a prohibition on large bank holding companies treating trust-preferred securities as Tier 1 capital, a key measure of a bank's strength. Would grandfather trust-preferred securities for banks with less than $15 billion in assets, enabling them to continue treating the securities as Tier 1 capital. Larger banks would have five years to phase-out trust-preferred securities as Tier 1 capital.
BANK FEE: Would mandate the Oversight Council to impose a special assessment on the nation's largest financial firms to raise up to $19 billion to offset the cost of the bill. The fee would apply to financial institutions with more than $ 50 billion in assets and hedge funds with more than $10 billion in assets, with entities deemed high risk paying more than safer ones. The fee would be collected by the FDIC over five years, with the funds placed in separate fund in the Treasury and would not be usable for any other purpose for 25 years, after which any left-over funds would go to pay down the national debt.
DEPOSIT INSURANCE: Would permanently increase the level of federal deposit insurance for banks, thrifts and credit unions to $250,000, retroactive to January 1, 2008.
MORTGAGES: Would establish new national minimum underwriting standards for home mortgages. Lenders would be required for the first time to ensure that a borrower is able to repay a home loan by verifying the borrower's income, credit history and job status. Would ban payments to brokers for steering borrowers to high-priced loans.
SECURITIZATION: Banks that package loans would, broadly, be required to keep 5% of the credit risk on their balance sheets. Would direct bank regulators to exempt from the rules a class of low-risk mortgages that meet certain minimum standards. Regulators could permit alternative risk-retention arrangements for the commercial mortgage-backed securities market.
CREDIT RATING AGENCIES: Would revamp the credit-rating industry, establishing a new quasi-government entity designed to address conflicts of interest inherent in the credit-rating business after the SEC studies the matter. Would also allow investors to sue credit-rating firms for a "knowing or reckless" failure to conduct a reasonable investigation, a lower liability standard than the firms were lobbying to get. Would establish a new oversight office within the SEC with the ability to fine ratings agencies and empowers the SEC to deregister a firm that gives too many bad ratings over time.
INVESTMENT ADVICE: Would give the SEC the authority to raise standards for broker dealers who give investment advice after the agency studies the issue. Would permit, but not require, the SEC to hold broker dealers to a fiduciary duty similar to the standard to which investment advisers are held.
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE: Would give shareholders of public corporations a non- binding vote on executive pay and "golden parachutes," and would give the SEC the authority to grant shareholders proxy access to nominate directors.
HEDGE FUNDS: Would require hedge funds and private equity funds to register with the SEC as investment advisers and to provide information on trades to help regulators monitor systemic risk.
INSURANCE: Would create a new Federal Insurance Office within the Treasury Department to monitor the insurance industry, recommending to the systemic risk council insurers that should be treated as systemically important. Would require the new office to report to Congress on ways to modernize insurance regulation.
-By Victoria McGrane, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9267; victoria.mcgrane@ dowjones.com
(Michael R. Crittenden, Sarah N. Lynch and Jessica Holzer contributed to this story)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-25-100616ET
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Why Keynes is wrong
This is a summary of by Jack Crooks excerpted from his daily comment on Friday May 28 this year.
It discusses Jacks opinion of a masterpiece of Economic thought that argues, in my opinion very convincingly, that John Maynard Keynes and the whole Keynsian economic philosophy that Western governments have based their economic policies on is the cause of our present economic woes.
This is the book:
The Failure of the “New Economics,” written by Henry Hazlitt, published in 1959.
The entire book deconstructs John Maynard Keynes masterpiece —The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, published in 1936.
Henry Hazlitt did the seemingly impossible, something that was and is a magnificent service to all people everywhere. He wrote a line-by-line commentary and refutation of one of the most destructive, fallacious, and convoluted books of the century. The target here is John Maynard Keynes's General Theory, the book that appeared in 1936 and swept all before it.
In economic science, Keynes changed everything. He supposedly demonstrated that prices don't work, that private investment is unstable, that sound money is intolerable, and that government was needed to shore up the system and save it. It was simply astonishing how economists the world over put up with this, but it happened. He converted a whole generation in the late period of the Great Depression. By the 1950s, almost everyone was Keynesian.
But Hazlitt, the nation's economics teacher, would have none of it. And he did the hard work of actually going through the book to evaluate its logic according to Austrian-style logical reasoning. The result: a 500-page masterpiece of exposition.
This book is available on Amazon.com
You economist wonks should devour it. The rest of us should heed the lessons of this man and Milton Friedman.
It discusses Jacks opinion of a masterpiece of Economic thought that argues, in my opinion very convincingly, that John Maynard Keynes and the whole Keynsian economic philosophy that Western governments have based their economic policies on is the cause of our present economic woes.
This is the book:
The Failure of the “New Economics,” written by Henry Hazlitt, published in 1959.
The entire book deconstructs John Maynard Keynes masterpiece —The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, published in 1936.
Henry Hazlitt did the seemingly impossible, something that was and is a magnificent service to all people everywhere. He wrote a line-by-line commentary and refutation of one of the most destructive, fallacious, and convoluted books of the century. The target here is John Maynard Keynes's General Theory, the book that appeared in 1936 and swept all before it.
In economic science, Keynes changed everything. He supposedly demonstrated that prices don't work, that private investment is unstable, that sound money is intolerable, and that government was needed to shore up the system and save it. It was simply astonishing how economists the world over put up with this, but it happened. He converted a whole generation in the late period of the Great Depression. By the 1950s, almost everyone was Keynesian.
But Hazlitt, the nation's economics teacher, would have none of it. And he did the hard work of actually going through the book to evaluate its logic according to Austrian-style logical reasoning. The result: a 500-page masterpiece of exposition.
This book is available on Amazon.com
You economist wonks should devour it. The rest of us should heed the lessons of this man and Milton Friedman.
This economic stuff really isn’t hard.
This economic stuff really isn’t hard.
“Taxing moves money and spending moves resources.”
In other words, why on God’s green earth would anyone with a pulse believe taking money (taxes) from the most productive side of the economy (private sector), which uses resources efficiently thanks to the invisible hand of the market, and give it to the most unproductive side of the economy (government) who continually wastes finite resources (spending), thanks to the visible boot of the market?
Three answers:
1) Brainwashed by the Temples of Keynesian Hell, often referred to as Ivy League economics departments
2) Hubris, and a deep-seated belief in one’s ability to structure the lives of others
3) Pay off political cronies and “interest” groups
I had the privilege of listening to the Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman in a lecture series during my MBA Economics classes say much the same thing.
This opinion is courtesy of Jack Crooks at Black Swan Capital and the link to the full discussion is above. An interesting argument.. read it, it dosnt take long.
“Taxing moves money and spending moves resources.”
In other words, why on God’s green earth would anyone with a pulse believe taking money (taxes) from the most productive side of the economy (private sector), which uses resources efficiently thanks to the invisible hand of the market, and give it to the most unproductive side of the economy (government) who continually wastes finite resources (spending), thanks to the visible boot of the market?
Three answers:
1) Brainwashed by the Temples of Keynesian Hell, often referred to as Ivy League economics departments
2) Hubris, and a deep-seated belief in one’s ability to structure the lives of others
3) Pay off political cronies and “interest” groups
I had the privilege of listening to the Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman in a lecture series during my MBA Economics classes say much the same thing.
This opinion is courtesy of Jack Crooks at Black Swan Capital and the link to the full discussion is above. An interesting argument.. read it, it dosnt take long.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Technically speaking, the market looks bad
Courtesy of Steve Reitmeister, Executive VP, Zacks Investment Research quoted from Zacks.com Profit from the Pros - 6/24/10
Technically speaking, the market looks bad given a 2nd straight close under the 200 day moving averages. Fundamentally speaking, I did not care for the change in the Fed's language today. They are no longer saying that the economy is "strengthening". Rather they said that the economic rebound is "proceeding". This may sound like semantics, but the Fed is VERY particular about their choice of words and this marks a clear change in their sentiment. To make matters worse they stated; "financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth ... largely reflecting developments abroad (read: Europe)." The smart money took this as a signal to move more cash to safety as can be seen by the further drop of the yield on 10 year treasuries to the lowest level since May 2009 (when it looked like the world was going to fall off a cliff). And perhaps many investors feel that is going to happen again. So I am taking this as a sign to lighten up my long positions. I even added a hefty ETF short position into the mix. I believe it will be hard for the market to press higher until we get forward looking guidance from Corporate America that makes us feel better about the economy. That won't happen for another few weeks. That says to me that the market is more likely to head lower over the next few weeks.
Technically speaking, the market looks bad given a 2nd straight close under the 200 day moving averages. Fundamentally speaking, I did not care for the change in the Fed's language today. They are no longer saying that the economy is "strengthening". Rather they said that the economic rebound is "proceeding". This may sound like semantics, but the Fed is VERY particular about their choice of words and this marks a clear change in their sentiment. To make matters worse they stated; "financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth ... largely reflecting developments abroad (read: Europe)." The smart money took this as a signal to move more cash to safety as can be seen by the further drop of the yield on 10 year treasuries to the lowest level since May 2009 (when it looked like the world was going to fall off a cliff). And perhaps many investors feel that is going to happen again. So I am taking this as a sign to lighten up my long positions. I even added a hefty ETF short position into the mix. I believe it will be hard for the market to press higher until we get forward looking guidance from Corporate America that makes us feel better about the economy. That won't happen for another few weeks. That says to me that the market is more likely to head lower over the next few weeks.
US home forfeitures
This page is about distressed sales of homes. Its a little dry but is vital reading for all.
The main questions are whether the backlog is being cleared and whether distressed sales are affecting prices.
Thank you Clear on Money.
http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=public:us_home_forfeitures
Summary
23 Jun 2010.
The underlying trend in US distressed home sales has been upward for about a year. Despite some ambiguity and incompleteness in the seven available data series, it is clear that the upward trend remains intact.
House prices are inversely related to the fraction of all sales that is distressed, where bank sales and short sales constitute the distressed category. The rate of change in house prices is inversely related to the inventory of existing homes, measured in months of supply. Both of these measures now suggest falling prices.
The main questions are whether the backlog is being cleared and whether distressed sales are affecting prices.
Thank you Clear on Money.
http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=public:us_home_forfeitures
Summary
23 Jun 2010.
The underlying trend in US distressed home sales has been upward for about a year. Despite some ambiguity and incompleteness in the seven available data series, it is clear that the upward trend remains intact.
House prices are inversely related to the fraction of all sales that is distressed, where bank sales and short sales constitute the distressed category. The rate of change in house prices is inversely related to the inventory of existing homes, measured in months of supply. Both of these measures now suggest falling prices.
Investor demand climbs for Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie debt
Investors continue to look for safe investments,
pushing up prices of mortgage securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. The agency
bonds are trading at more than their face value, yielding about 1.5% more than comparable Treasurys. Foreign
investors are attracted to the bonds because they are guaranteed by the government. The Wall Street Journal
pushing up prices of mortgage securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. The agency
bonds are trading at more than their face value, yielding about 1.5% more than comparable Treasurys. Foreign
investors are attracted to the bonds because they are guaranteed by the government. The Wall Street Journal
Fannie Mae plans to crack down on "strategic defaulters"
Fannie Mae plans to get tough on borrowers who
can afford to make their mortgage payments but walk away because the loan balance is bigger the the
property's value. People who engage in a "strategic default" would be banned from Fannie loans for seven
years. In some cases, the U.S. government-controlled company would tell loan servicers to go to court to get
back money owed to Fannie. Los Angeles Times
can afford to make their mortgage payments but walk away because the loan balance is bigger the the
property's value. People who engage in a "strategic default" would be banned from Fannie loans for seven
years. In some cases, the U.S. government-controlled company would tell loan servicers to go to court to get
back money owed to Fannie. Los Angeles Times
Analysis: U.S. home sales crash after tax credit ends
Sales of homes in the U.S., along with their prices,
soared after Congress gave first-time buyers an $8,000 tax credit. When the subsidy expired, so did the boost,
with only 28,000 home sold in May, the lowest number recorded for that month. The tax credit did nothing
about high inventory, unemployment close to 10% and millions of underwater homeowners, according to The
Economist. "And Americans are now left wondering when housing's second dip will find its bottom and real
recovery begin," The Economist notes. The Economist
soared after Congress gave first-time buyers an $8,000 tax credit. When the subsidy expired, so did the boost,
with only 28,000 home sold in May, the lowest number recorded for that month. The tax credit did nothing
about high inventory, unemployment close to 10% and millions of underwater homeowners, according to The
Economist. "And Americans are now left wondering when housing's second dip will find its bottom and real
recovery begin," The Economist notes. The Economist
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Mortgage Workout 4: The real urgency
Its no longer inauguration day. There is no more hope in the air. Change....it has not come. HAMP and HARP are failed solutions to the wrong problem. They simply dont work.Forcing a refinancing on a homeowner that consumes 60% or more of disposable income is not a sustainable solution. It is a depressing process without a hopeful ending.
Where is the incentive for that homeowner, often innocent of any wrongdoing and merely a victim of relentlessly reducing home values,to stay in an unaffordable home?
The sensible thing to do is to hand back the keys to the house to whomever can prove they own the note on it and move on to find housing for the family that IS affordable.
It is time for politicians to be patriotic and not parochial.
Everyone must acknowledge that the problem is NOT how to rejigger the current mortgage to somehow cajole the homeowner to pay up. The current mortgage modification practises are structured to encourage the exact opposite result...because that is where the money lies for the banks and mortgage servicers. These guys get fees every step of the way.
Servicers get to charge fees to try and modify a mortgage; they get subsidies from the government to give it a try. The big five banks get to charge interest and just have no incentive to kill the cash cow that borrowing from the Government at effectively zero cost and lending the money right back at a 2+% profit with no risk, has become.
Why should anyone lend to some risky person offering collateral that is declining in value when they can lend the free money right back at a risk free profit?
Government MUST rescue the homeowners of this great nation or the American Dream of home ownership will be lost forever.
Government cannot abandon its citizens!
This is a moment in history that a simple, transparent process of mortgage normalization could turn into a triumph of affordable prosperity for this great nation and for the world!The United States MUST lead!
They must do this for the benefit of the country. To do anything other than a clean fix aimed laserlike at the problem of home valuation is to charge the country headlong out of the current recession into a second Great Depression of unimagined magnitude and consequence.
Here is an example of how this would work, without using additional bailout money, without cramping the style of politicians who want to free up money for stimulating economic activity and would restore the great hope of prosperity for this great nation and the world:
EXAMPLE:
John Smith Family owns a house with a current mortgage of $700,000. It is their primary residence (they live in it).
Smith household income reported on 2009 Federal tax return was $125,000 gross before any deductions ( NOT their taxable income, their take home pay with tax added back).
Current US 30 year Treasury Bonds have an interest rate of 4.059%.
Principle no 1: 30% of $125,000 means Smith can afford to pay no more than $37,500 per year or $3,125 per month for Principal & Interest on the mortgage.
Smith gets a new mortgage under this program with a 30 year term at 4.55% (4.059+0.5 servicing fee) for a nominal value of approx $600,000.(arrived at through Discounted Cash Flow analysis based on what Smith can afford to pay). The Government gets the right to 80% of the difference between $600,000 and the original mortgage amount of $700,000 when the house is sold.
Ten years from now Smith sells the house for $700,000
He has paid about $2,900/month in interest for 10 yrs or $348,000 that has gone back into the US treasury.
He has paid about $27,000 in principal. He owes $573,000 on the new government mortgage, and $100,000 difference between his old and new mortgage originally financed by the US govt.
His gross profit on the sale of his house is $127,000. He owes 80% of this or $101,600, under his mortgage contract so that the Government gets the $573,000 and its $100,000 back and $1,600 more.
Smith has had his property written down to a reasonable value and his mortgage therefore becomes valuable in a resale. The Federal Reserve can resell it if they wish. Smith has lived with a new lower payment and still got the tax deduction for interest. He has made a profit on the sale of the home!
Most importantly, Smith is not tempted to hand the keys of the house to the bank because he is upside down in the mortgage. The Bankruptcy/foreclosure process is completely avoided.
There is a very real potential for gain by the Government( thats us - the taxpayer). Interest and principal payments on mortgages comes into the Fed Reserve balance sheet. Potential for profit exists on sale of properties. No new government agencies need to be established. The Fed will hire the necessary personnel to administer the program.
The banking system is unclogged and consumer confidence is restored.
Just imagine the rush of consumer confidence unleashed! Homeowners with new purchasing power!
Banks with capital to lend to credit worthy businesses who can hire new employees who now have an income! Hundreds of thousands of people seperating from the Government Welfare rolls!
This can happen, now. It must happen... anything that has been tried up to now has failed and will lead this nation and the world over the cliff to oblivion.
Change course now!
Where is the incentive for that homeowner, often innocent of any wrongdoing and merely a victim of relentlessly reducing home values,to stay in an unaffordable home?
The sensible thing to do is to hand back the keys to the house to whomever can prove they own the note on it and move on to find housing for the family that IS affordable.
It is time for politicians to be patriotic and not parochial.
Everyone must acknowledge that the problem is NOT how to rejigger the current mortgage to somehow cajole the homeowner to pay up. The current mortgage modification practises are structured to encourage the exact opposite result...because that is where the money lies for the banks and mortgage servicers. These guys get fees every step of the way.
Servicers get to charge fees to try and modify a mortgage; they get subsidies from the government to give it a try. The big five banks get to charge interest and just have no incentive to kill the cash cow that borrowing from the Government at effectively zero cost and lending the money right back at a 2+% profit with no risk, has become.
Why should anyone lend to some risky person offering collateral that is declining in value when they can lend the free money right back at a risk free profit?
Government MUST rescue the homeowners of this great nation or the American Dream of home ownership will be lost forever.
Government cannot abandon its citizens!
This is a moment in history that a simple, transparent process of mortgage normalization could turn into a triumph of affordable prosperity for this great nation and for the world!The United States MUST lead!
They must do this for the benefit of the country. To do anything other than a clean fix aimed laserlike at the problem of home valuation is to charge the country headlong out of the current recession into a second Great Depression of unimagined magnitude and consequence.
Here is an example of how this would work, without using additional bailout money, without cramping the style of politicians who want to free up money for stimulating economic activity and would restore the great hope of prosperity for this great nation and the world:
EXAMPLE:
John Smith Family owns a house with a current mortgage of $700,000. It is their primary residence (they live in it).
Smith household income reported on 2009 Federal tax return was $125,000 gross before any deductions ( NOT their taxable income, their take home pay with tax added back).
Current US 30 year Treasury Bonds have an interest rate of 4.059%.
Principle no 1: 30% of $125,000 means Smith can afford to pay no more than $37,500 per year or $3,125 per month for Principal & Interest on the mortgage.
Smith gets a new mortgage under this program with a 30 year term at 4.55% (4.059+0.5 servicing fee) for a nominal value of approx $600,000.(arrived at through Discounted Cash Flow analysis based on what Smith can afford to pay). The Government gets the right to 80% of the difference between $600,000 and the original mortgage amount of $700,000 when the house is sold.
Ten years from now Smith sells the house for $700,000
He has paid about $2,900/month in interest for 10 yrs or $348,000 that has gone back into the US treasury.
He has paid about $27,000 in principal. He owes $573,000 on the new government mortgage, and $100,000 difference between his old and new mortgage originally financed by the US govt.
His gross profit on the sale of his house is $127,000. He owes 80% of this or $101,600, under his mortgage contract so that the Government gets the $573,000 and its $100,000 back and $1,600 more.
Smith has had his property written down to a reasonable value and his mortgage therefore becomes valuable in a resale. The Federal Reserve can resell it if they wish. Smith has lived with a new lower payment and still got the tax deduction for interest. He has made a profit on the sale of the home!
Most importantly, Smith is not tempted to hand the keys of the house to the bank because he is upside down in the mortgage. The Bankruptcy/foreclosure process is completely avoided.
There is a very real potential for gain by the Government( thats us - the taxpayer). Interest and principal payments on mortgages comes into the Fed Reserve balance sheet. Potential for profit exists on sale of properties. No new government agencies need to be established. The Fed will hire the necessary personnel to administer the program.
The banking system is unclogged and consumer confidence is restored.
Just imagine the rush of consumer confidence unleashed! Homeowners with new purchasing power!
Banks with capital to lend to credit worthy businesses who can hire new employees who now have an income! Hundreds of thousands of people seperating from the Government Welfare rolls!
This can happen, now. It must happen... anything that has been tried up to now has failed and will lead this nation and the world over the cliff to oblivion.
Change course now!
Mortgage Workout 3: Benefits to Mortgage Holders and Homeowners under water on the Mortgage
a. Current law-abiding households who are are seeing negative real value of their primary residence will be able to remain in their homes at affordable cost with a potential for some upside appreciation in the value of their property; and they get to see a participation in the realization of that potential together with Government on sale of their property.
b. Banks and other mortgage owners will have a value, real and ascertainable, assigned to each and every such distressed mortgage. AND they will have, therefore a viable asset to sell to mortgage repackagers on Wall Street; this frees up capital to lend out on new mortgages under more appropriate terms (20% downpayment, 30% max housing cost to household income)
c. Government gets a real, visible path to recovery of money appropriated to this program, with interest.
d. Government will be helping citizens who most need help and restoring their confidence in The American Dream.
e. Government will restore confidence in the banking system worldwide by establishing a system of mortgage valuation that establishes a valuation methodology that could easily be cloned by private investors and capitalized on by the Financial Services industry worldwide.
f. Bankers and other lenders will now have a method of assessing the value of collateral offered interbank and lending between institutions, currently effectively at a trickle, can be reinvigorated.
g. No new government burocracy needed. FNMA/FHLMC become effective arms of the Federal Reserve who is charged with housing stability as a third mandate.
The result will be a very viable, self-funding solution to the current housing/banking crisis.
Mortgages then become easy to value as the underlying properties have a recognized value. Homeowners have an affordable mortgage payment, freeing up discretionary income for spending on other goods and services.
Most importantly, homeowners will not be tempted to walk away from unaffordable payments, or houses worth less than they owe. Foreclosure or bankruptcy can be avoided completely.
There is a very real potential for gain for the Government. Interest on mortgages comes into the Fed Reserve balance sheet. Potential for profit exists on sale of properties. No new government agencies need to be established.
The banking system is unclogged and consumer confidence is restored. All without requiring additional tax burdens on unborn generations.
b. Banks and other mortgage owners will have a value, real and ascertainable, assigned to each and every such distressed mortgage. AND they will have, therefore a viable asset to sell to mortgage repackagers on Wall Street; this frees up capital to lend out on new mortgages under more appropriate terms (20% downpayment, 30% max housing cost to household income)
c. Government gets a real, visible path to recovery of money appropriated to this program, with interest.
d. Government will be helping citizens who most need help and restoring their confidence in The American Dream.
e. Government will restore confidence in the banking system worldwide by establishing a system of mortgage valuation that establishes a valuation methodology that could easily be cloned by private investors and capitalized on by the Financial Services industry worldwide.
f. Bankers and other lenders will now have a method of assessing the value of collateral offered interbank and lending between institutions, currently effectively at a trickle, can be reinvigorated.
g. No new government burocracy needed. FNMA/FHLMC become effective arms of the Federal Reserve who is charged with housing stability as a third mandate.
The result will be a very viable, self-funding solution to the current housing/banking crisis.
Mortgages then become easy to value as the underlying properties have a recognized value. Homeowners have an affordable mortgage payment, freeing up discretionary income for spending on other goods and services.
Most importantly, homeowners will not be tempted to walk away from unaffordable payments, or houses worth less than they owe. Foreclosure or bankruptcy can be avoided completely.
There is a very real potential for gain for the Government. Interest on mortgages comes into the Fed Reserve balance sheet. Potential for profit exists on sale of properties. No new government agencies need to be established.
The banking system is unclogged and consumer confidence is restored. All without requiring additional tax burdens on unborn generations.
Mortgage Workout 2, Updated: Funding
FUNDING for this Program:
Congress will authorize Treasury to issue up to $700 billion annually in 30 year Treasury bonds, at prevailing rates, to implement this program. ( and use the unspent $300 Billion unused funds already voted in the TARP)
These funds will be placed in a separate segregated Federal Reserve Bank administered fund that cannot be invaded by anyone or used for any other purpose than mortgage refinancing. These funds will be used to purchase mortgages on PRIMARY RESIDENCES from homeowners at the value of the amount of principal outstanding on these mortgages.
Chairman of Fed to be responsible for disbursements and oversight of the program so co-ordination with Monetary policy will be maximized.
Reporting: to Congress on program status twice a year.
Congress will authorize Treasury to issue up to $700 billion annually in 30 year Treasury bonds, at prevailing rates, to implement this program. ( and use the unspent $300 Billion unused funds already voted in the TARP)
These funds will be placed in a separate segregated Federal Reserve Bank administered fund that cannot be invaded by anyone or used for any other purpose than mortgage refinancing. These funds will be used to purchase mortgages on PRIMARY RESIDENCES from homeowners at the value of the amount of principal outstanding on these mortgages.
Chairman of Fed to be responsible for disbursements and oversight of the program so co-ordination with Monetary policy will be maximized.
Reporting: to Congress on program status twice a year.
A Mortgage Workout for the People of the USA 1: The Plan Revised and updated
This is a plan I first suggested two years ago and again on Inauguration day, to help every citizen of the USA whose current mortgage obligation exceeds the value of their primary home.
Principle no 1: No household should pay a housing cost (mortgage payment: principal + Interest only) that exceeds 30% of their gross income( before any deductions) as reported on their latest Federal Tax Return.
Principle no 2: The Federal Government will refinance existing mortgages, through The Federal Reserve Bank; (buy the existing mortgage and reissue a new mortgage to homeowner). This will apply ONLY to homeowners whose mortgage debt on their PRIMARY residence is larger than the current value of their property.
Principle no 3: New mortgages issued under this program, based on household ability to pay, will contain a provision that allows The Federal Reserve Bank to recover, on sale of secured property, 80% of the difference between the nominal value of the new mortgage issued and the then sale price of the property, until full amount of original refinanced mortgage is recovered. The Federal Reserve Bank will be allowed to charge a 0.5% fee in addition to 30yr Treasury Bond rate to cover cost of implementing the program.
Principle no 4: Federal Reserve Bank will be allowed to continue to repackage these new mortgages in CMO’s etc for resale through traditional resale channels.
Principle no 1: No household should pay a housing cost (mortgage payment: principal + Interest only) that exceeds 30% of their gross income( before any deductions) as reported on their latest Federal Tax Return.
Principle no 2: The Federal Government will refinance existing mortgages, through The Federal Reserve Bank; (buy the existing mortgage and reissue a new mortgage to homeowner). This will apply ONLY to homeowners whose mortgage debt on their PRIMARY residence is larger than the current value of their property.
Principle no 3: New mortgages issued under this program, based on household ability to pay, will contain a provision that allows The Federal Reserve Bank to recover, on sale of secured property, 80% of the difference between the nominal value of the new mortgage issued and the then sale price of the property, until full amount of original refinanced mortgage is recovered. The Federal Reserve Bank will be allowed to charge a 0.5% fee in addition to 30yr Treasury Bond rate to cover cost of implementing the program.
Principle no 4: Federal Reserve Bank will be allowed to continue to repackage these new mortgages in CMO’s etc for resale through traditional resale channels.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
WEEK ENDING 11/13/09
Overview
While the unemployment rate climbed to a 26 year high of 10.2% in October, initial claims for unemployment aid, which are generally considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs, fell last week to a seasonally adjusted 502,000. more...
US MARKETS
Treasury/Economics
Treasury yields oscillated in a very narrow range this week, with relatively low yields and volatility an ideal scenario for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to navigate the economy. more...
Large-Cap Equities
The stock market rallied for the second straight week on continued corporate mergers and acquisitions activity and the G-20 agreeing to maintain their stimulus efforts, supporting prospects of an economic recovery. more...
Corporate Bonds
Investment grade primary activity got off to a running start this week with over twenty issuers coming to the market. more...
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Complacency is a mortgage investor’s best friend. With Treasuries stuck in a range for another week, mortgages outperformed Treasuries as spreads inched closer to their all-time tights. more...
Municipal Bonds
Yields on municipal bonds are lower this week inside of 20 years of maturity, but higher in longer maturities. more...
High-Yield
The high yield market is facing a flood of new deals, with over 15 deals totaling some $6.5 billion set to price this week and early next. more...
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Eastern European Equities
The CECE index of equities traded in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) gained +6.7% this week, while the Russian stock index RTS went up +6.1%. more...
Global Bonds and Currencies
Major non-US sovereign bond markets were generally slightly firmer overall in the past week despite a surge in risk appetite which pushed equity prices to their highest levels this year. more...
Emerging-Market Bonds
Emerging market dollar-pay debt spreads were tighter this week. Encouraging economic data kept risk appetite strong as equity markets made new highs for the year and credit spreads tightened. more...
For more information, please contact 800 5-PAYDEN or visit payden.com.
If you have difficulties viewing this e-mail and would prefer the Weekly Market Update in plain text format, please e-mail us at paydenrygel@payden-rygel.com. To unsubscribe from this email, please email us at unsubscribe@payden-rygel.com.
Have a great weekend!
All rights reserved. Legal terms. Payden & Rygel respects your privacy. Privacy policy.
The investment strategy and investment management information presented on this email and related Web site, payden.com, should not be construed to be formal financial planning advice or the formation of a financial manager/client relationship. Payden.com is an informative Web site designed to provide information to the general public based on our recommendations of investment management and investment strategies and is not designed to be representative of your own financial needs. Nor does the information contained herein constitute financial management advice. The firm makes no warranty or representation regarding the accuracy or legality of any information contained in this Web site, and assumes no liability for the use of said information. Be advised that as Internet communications are not always confidential, you provide our Web site your personal information at your own risk. Please do not make any decisions about any investment management or investment strategy matter without consulting with a qualified professional.
While the unemployment rate climbed to a 26 year high of 10.2% in October, initial claims for unemployment aid, which are generally considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs, fell last week to a seasonally adjusted 502,000. more...
US MARKETS
Treasury/Economics
Treasury yields oscillated in a very narrow range this week, with relatively low yields and volatility an ideal scenario for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to navigate the economy. more...
Large-Cap Equities
The stock market rallied for the second straight week on continued corporate mergers and acquisitions activity and the G-20 agreeing to maintain their stimulus efforts, supporting prospects of an economic recovery. more...
Corporate Bonds
Investment grade primary activity got off to a running start this week with over twenty issuers coming to the market. more...
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Complacency is a mortgage investor’s best friend. With Treasuries stuck in a range for another week, mortgages outperformed Treasuries as spreads inched closer to their all-time tights. more...
Municipal Bonds
Yields on municipal bonds are lower this week inside of 20 years of maturity, but higher in longer maturities. more...
High-Yield
The high yield market is facing a flood of new deals, with over 15 deals totaling some $6.5 billion set to price this week and early next. more...
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Eastern European Equities
The CECE index of equities traded in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) gained +6.7% this week, while the Russian stock index RTS went up +6.1%. more...
Global Bonds and Currencies
Major non-US sovereign bond markets were generally slightly firmer overall in the past week despite a surge in risk appetite which pushed equity prices to their highest levels this year. more...
Emerging-Market Bonds
Emerging market dollar-pay debt spreads were tighter this week. Encouraging economic data kept risk appetite strong as equity markets made new highs for the year and credit spreads tightened. more...
For more information, please contact 800 5-PAYDEN or visit payden.com.
If you have difficulties viewing this e-mail and would prefer the Weekly Market Update in plain text format, please e-mail us at paydenrygel@payden-rygel.com. To unsubscribe from this email, please email us at unsubscribe@payden-rygel.com.
Have a great weekend!
All rights reserved. Legal terms. Payden & Rygel respects your privacy. Privacy policy.
The investment strategy and investment management information presented on this email and related Web site, payden.com, should not be construed to be formal financial planning advice or the formation of a financial manager/client relationship. Payden.com is an informative Web site designed to provide information to the general public based on our recommendations of investment management and investment strategies and is not designed to be representative of your own financial needs. Nor does the information contained herein constitute financial management advice. The firm makes no warranty or representation regarding the accuracy or legality of any information contained in this Web site, and assumes no liability for the use of said information. Be advised that as Internet communications are not always confidential, you provide our Web site your personal information at your own risk. Please do not make any decisions about any investment management or investment strategy matter without consulting with a qualified professional.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Your Duck is Dead; cost of medical care
A woman brought a very limp duck into a veterinary surgeon.
As she laid her pet on the table, the vet pulled out his stethoscope and listened to the bird’s chest.
After a moment or two, the vet shook his head sadly and said, “I’m sorry, your duck, Cuddles, has passed away.”
The distressed woman wailed, “Are you sure?”
“Yes, I am sure. Your duck is dead,” replied the vet.
“How can you be so sure?” she protested. “I mean you haven’t done any testing on him or anything. He might just be in a coma or something.”
The vet rolled his eyes, turned around, and left the room.
He returned a few minutes later with a black Labrador Retriever.
As the duck’s owner looked on in amazement, the dog stood on his hind legs, put his front paws on the examination table and sniffed the duck from top to bottom. He then looked up at the vet with sad eyes and shook his head.
The vet patted the dog on the head and took it out of the room.
A few minutes later he returned with a cat. The cat jumped on the table and also delicately sniffed the bird from head to foot. The cat sat back on its haunches, shook its head, meowed softly, and strolled out of the room.
The vet looked at the woman and said, “I’m sorry, but as I said, this is most definitely, 100% certifiably, a dead duck.”
The vet turned to his computer terminal, hit a few keys, and produced a bill, which he handed to the woman.
The duck’s owner, still in shock, took the bill. “$150!” she cried, “$150 just to tell me my duck is dead!”
The vet shrugged, “I’m sorry. If you had just taken my word for it, the bill would have been $20, but with the Lab Report and the Cat Scan, it’s now $150.”
As she laid her pet on the table, the vet pulled out his stethoscope and listened to the bird’s chest.
After a moment or two, the vet shook his head sadly and said, “I’m sorry, your duck, Cuddles, has passed away.”
The distressed woman wailed, “Are you sure?”
“Yes, I am sure. Your duck is dead,” replied the vet.
“How can you be so sure?” she protested. “I mean you haven’t done any testing on him or anything. He might just be in a coma or something.”
The vet rolled his eyes, turned around, and left the room.
He returned a few minutes later with a black Labrador Retriever.
As the duck’s owner looked on in amazement, the dog stood on his hind legs, put his front paws on the examination table and sniffed the duck from top to bottom. He then looked up at the vet with sad eyes and shook his head.
The vet patted the dog on the head and took it out of the room.
A few minutes later he returned with a cat. The cat jumped on the table and also delicately sniffed the bird from head to foot. The cat sat back on its haunches, shook its head, meowed softly, and strolled out of the room.
The vet looked at the woman and said, “I’m sorry, but as I said, this is most definitely, 100% certifiably, a dead duck.”
The vet turned to his computer terminal, hit a few keys, and produced a bill, which he handed to the woman.
The duck’s owner, still in shock, took the bill. “$150!” she cried, “$150 just to tell me my duck is dead!”
The vet shrugged, “I’m sorry. If you had just taken my word for it, the bill would have been $20, but with the Lab Report and the Cat Scan, it’s now $150.”
Weekly Wrap 10/30/09
Last week we discussed the volatility in U.S. equity markets, and that not only continued this week it became more aggressive. But unlike the prior week's modest moves, the major averages closed sharply lower this week as the dollar rebounded against the other major currencies. The S&P 500 lost 4%.
Once again the declines were broad-based as all ten sectors in the index ended lower, led by Materials (-7.1%) and Financials (-6.9%).
The dollar was the biggest, if not the only, catalyst this week. In fact, the charts of the major indices are almost exact inverses of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A weak dollar benefits the economy as it boosts exports, and investors are trading stocks based on the moves in the currency.
For example, equities attempted to rebound at the open Monday, but the attempt stalled and a spike higher in the DXY late that morning led to a spike lower in the major indices.
The volatility really came through in the last three sessions of the week.
A third day of gains in the DXY on Wednesday led to sharp declines in equities.
Then a reversal in the greenback and modestly better-than-expected GDP figure on Thursday helped equities regain the prior day's declines. The Advance reading for third quarter GDP came in at 3.5%, its first gain in four quarters, slightly better than the 3.2% consensus.
But those gains were short-lived as a resumption in the dollar rally on Friday led to the major indices making fresh week lows.
Third quarter earnings season did continue this week, but there were fewer big names so they took a backseat. For the most part companies continued to beat on the bottom lines, but top line figures and guidance were mixed.
Another rounds of longer-term Treasury auctions also took a back seat -- $123 billion in 5-year TIPS and 2-, 5- and 7-year Notes -- as they no longer seem to have as direct an influence on the equity markets.
Looking ahead to next week, third quarter earnings season will wind down with even fewer big names on the calendar. The dollar will most likely remain in focus until the end of the week, when the always highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls figure is released for October.
Index Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD %
DJIA 9972.18 9712.73 -259.45 -2.6 10.7
Nasdaq 2154.47 2045.11 -109.36 -5.1 29.7
S&P 500 1079.60 1036.19 -43.41 -4.0 14.7
Russell 2000 600.86 562.77 -38.09 -6.3 12.7
Once again the declines were broad-based as all ten sectors in the index ended lower, led by Materials (-7.1%) and Financials (-6.9%).
The dollar was the biggest, if not the only, catalyst this week. In fact, the charts of the major indices are almost exact inverses of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A weak dollar benefits the economy as it boosts exports, and investors are trading stocks based on the moves in the currency.
For example, equities attempted to rebound at the open Monday, but the attempt stalled and a spike higher in the DXY late that morning led to a spike lower in the major indices.
The volatility really came through in the last three sessions of the week.
A third day of gains in the DXY on Wednesday led to sharp declines in equities.
Then a reversal in the greenback and modestly better-than-expected GDP figure on Thursday helped equities regain the prior day's declines. The Advance reading for third quarter GDP came in at 3.5%, its first gain in four quarters, slightly better than the 3.2% consensus.
But those gains were short-lived as a resumption in the dollar rally on Friday led to the major indices making fresh week lows.
Third quarter earnings season did continue this week, but there were fewer big names so they took a backseat. For the most part companies continued to beat on the bottom lines, but top line figures and guidance were mixed.
Another rounds of longer-term Treasury auctions also took a back seat -- $123 billion in 5-year TIPS and 2-, 5- and 7-year Notes -- as they no longer seem to have as direct an influence on the equity markets.
Looking ahead to next week, third quarter earnings season will wind down with even fewer big names on the calendar. The dollar will most likely remain in focus until the end of the week, when the always highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls figure is released for October.
Index Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD %
DJIA 9972.18 9712.73 -259.45 -2.6 10.7
Nasdaq 2154.47 2045.11 -109.36 -5.1 29.7
S&P 500 1079.60 1036.19 -43.41 -4.0 14.7
Russell 2000 600.86 562.77 -38.09 -6.3 12.7
Friday, October 30, 2009
Quotable
1 WITCH. Thrice the brinded cat hath mew'd.
2 WITCH. Thrice and once, the hedge-pig whin'd.
3 WITCH. Harpier cries:—'tis time! 'tis time!
1 WITCH. Round about the caldron go; In the poison'd entrails throw.— Toad, that under cold stone, Days and nights has thirty-one; Swelter'd venom sleeping got, Boil thou first i' the charmed pot!
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
2 WITCH. Fillet of a fenny snake, In the caldron boil and bake; Eye of newt, and toe of frog, Wool of bat, and tongue of dog, Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting, Lizard's leg, and owlet's wing,— For a charm of powerful trouble, Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
3 WITCH. Scale of dragon; tooth of wolf; Witches' mummy; maw and gulf Of the ravin'd salt-sea shark; Root of hemlock digg'd i the dark; Liver of blaspheming Jew; Gall of goat, and slips of yew Sliver'd in the moon's eclipse; Nose of Turk, and Tartar's lips; Finger of birth-strangled babe Ditch-deliver'd by a drab,— Make the gruel thick and slab: Add thereto a tiger's chaudron, For the ingrediants of our caldron.
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
2 WITCH. Cool it with a baboon's blood, Then the charm is firm and good.
William Shakespeare
2 WITCH. Thrice and once, the hedge-pig whin'd.
3 WITCH. Harpier cries:—'tis time! 'tis time!
1 WITCH. Round about the caldron go; In the poison'd entrails throw.— Toad, that under cold stone, Days and nights has thirty-one; Swelter'd venom sleeping got, Boil thou first i' the charmed pot!
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
2 WITCH. Fillet of a fenny snake, In the caldron boil and bake; Eye of newt, and toe of frog, Wool of bat, and tongue of dog, Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting, Lizard's leg, and owlet's wing,— For a charm of powerful trouble, Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
3 WITCH. Scale of dragon; tooth of wolf; Witches' mummy; maw and gulf Of the ravin'd salt-sea shark; Root of hemlock digg'd i the dark; Liver of blaspheming Jew; Gall of goat, and slips of yew Sliver'd in the moon's eclipse; Nose of Turk, and Tartar's lips; Finger of birth-strangled babe Ditch-deliver'd by a drab,— Make the gruel thick and slab: Add thereto a tiger's chaudron, For the ingrediants of our caldron.
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
2 WITCH. Cool it with a baboon's blood, Then the charm is firm and good.
William Shakespeare
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Quotable: For Missing the Unmissable
Quotable
For Missing the Unmissable
Bernanke, the most passionate cheerleader of Greenspan’s follies, is picked as his replacement, partly, it seems, for his belief that U.S. house prices would never decline and that at their peak in late 2005 they largely just reflected the unusual strength of the U.S. economy. As well as missing on his very own this 3-sigma (100-year) event in housing, he was completely clueless as to the potential disastrous interactions among lower house prices, new opaque financial instruments, heroically increased mortgages, lower lending standards, and internationally networked distribution. For these accumulated benefits to society, he was reappointed! So, yes, after the fashion of his mentor, he was lavish with help as the bubble burst. And how can we so quickly forget the very painful consequences of the previous lavishing after the 2000 bubble? Rewarding Bernanke is like reappointing the Titanic’s captain for facilitating an orderly disembarkation of the sinking ship (let’s pretend that happened) while ignoring the fact that he had charged recklessly through dark and dangerous waters.
The Other Teflon Men
Larry Summers, with a Financial Times bully pulpit, had done little bullying and blown no warning whistles of impending doom back in 2006 and 2007. And, famously, in earlier years as Treasury Secretary he had encouraged (I hope inadvertently) wild and reckless financial behavior by helping to beat back attempts to regulate some of the new and most dangerous instruments. Timothy Geithner, in turn, sat in the very engine room of the USS Disaster and helped steer her onto the rocks. And there are several others (discussed in the 4Q 2008 Letter). You know who you are. All promoted!
Jeremy Grantham
For Missing the Unmissable
Bernanke, the most passionate cheerleader of Greenspan’s follies, is picked as his replacement, partly, it seems, for his belief that U.S. house prices would never decline and that at their peak in late 2005 they largely just reflected the unusual strength of the U.S. economy. As well as missing on his very own this 3-sigma (100-year) event in housing, he was completely clueless as to the potential disastrous interactions among lower house prices, new opaque financial instruments, heroically increased mortgages, lower lending standards, and internationally networked distribution. For these accumulated benefits to society, he was reappointed! So, yes, after the fashion of his mentor, he was lavish with help as the bubble burst. And how can we so quickly forget the very painful consequences of the previous lavishing after the 2000 bubble? Rewarding Bernanke is like reappointing the Titanic’s captain for facilitating an orderly disembarkation of the sinking ship (let’s pretend that happened) while ignoring the fact that he had charged recklessly through dark and dangerous waters.
The Other Teflon Men
Larry Summers, with a Financial Times bully pulpit, had done little bullying and blown no warning whistles of impending doom back in 2006 and 2007. And, famously, in earlier years as Treasury Secretary he had encouraged (I hope inadvertently) wild and reckless financial behavior by helping to beat back attempts to regulate some of the new and most dangerous instruments. Timothy Geithner, in turn, sat in the very engine room of the USS Disaster and helped steer her onto the rocks. And there are several others (discussed in the 4Q 2008 Letter). You know who you are. All promoted!
Jeremy Grantham
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Market Reflections 10/22/2009
Earnings were mostly positive Thursday, led by 3M and McDonald's and including two from the financial sector: PNC and Travelers. After-the-close earnings were especially strong including big surprises from credit-card issuer Capital One and good results from both American Express and Amazon. Economic news was mixed as a gain for the index of leading economic indicators, a gain skewed by its heavy weighting on the yield curve, was offset by a slight rise in initial jobless claims. The dollar gained back some of yesterday's steep loss, up 0.2 percent on the dollar index to 75.14. Commodities were little changed, holding onto yesterday's big rallies in oil and base metals.
Market Reflections 10/21/2009
Deepening weakness in the dollar is heightening talk that policy makers are pursuing a deliberate, thinly masked devaluation policy to raise inflation in a move to monetize the government's debt. This talk has been going on all year in the commodities markets but is now appearing in broader research including today from Morgan Stanley which says there is "the possibility that central banks might want to engineer controlled inflation to reduce the public debt burden." Until an exit strategy is announced, traders are saying that foreign investors will seek to protect themselves with non-dollar assets and that the markets will taunt the Fed by selling dollars and buying commodities.
The dollar index fell a steep 0.7 percent to 74.99 with the dollar testing the key $1.5000 level against the euro, a break of which may, according to traders, trigger intervention from the ECB. Oil hit new 2009 highs, rising $1-1/2 to end at $81 with copper and zinc also hitting 2009 highs. Gold led commodity gains earlier in the month and, pressured by profit-taking, was unable to make much ground, ending only $5 higher at $1,060. Earnings news was mixed, headed by a huge loss at Boeing which continues to suffer from costs associated with prior production delays. Charles Schwab, citing the drag from the dollar, is recommending that U.S. investors seek companies in sectors with broad international exposure including technology, materials, industrials, and energy. The S&P fell 0.9 percent to 1,081.
The dollar index fell a steep 0.7 percent to 74.99 with the dollar testing the key $1.5000 level against the euro, a break of which may, according to traders, trigger intervention from the ECB. Oil hit new 2009 highs, rising $1-1/2 to end at $81 with copper and zinc also hitting 2009 highs. Gold led commodity gains earlier in the month and, pressured by profit-taking, was unable to make much ground, ending only $5 higher at $1,060. Earnings news was mixed, headed by a huge loss at Boeing which continues to suffer from costs associated with prior production delays. Charles Schwab, citing the drag from the dollar, is recommending that U.S. investors seek companies in sectors with broad international exposure including technology, materials, industrials, and energy. The S&P fell 0.9 percent to 1,081.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Market Reflections10/20/2009
A soft housing starts report that included a decline in permits sent the S&P down 0.6 percent to 1,091, offsetting a run of strong earnings reports led Tuesday by heavy equipment maker Caterpillar. The dollar index firmed slightly to 75.52. Commodities were little changed with oil ending at $78.50 and gold at $1,056. Money moved into Treasuries where the 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 3.34 percent
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Market Reflections 10/19/2009
Stocks continued to rise, making new 2009 highs boosted by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who did not offer any timeline for a change to a less stimulative monetary policy. The S&P gained 1 percent to end just short of 1,100 at just under 1,098. Earnings after the close point to big gains tomorrow with both Apple and Texas Instruments easily beating expectations on both earnings and sales.
Low interest rates interest in the U.S. vs. expectations for rising rates in other economies continue to hurt the dollar. The dollar index fell 0.4 percent to 75.34. The decline in the dollar pushed commodities higher especially base metals where copper gained 10 cents to $2.93. Oil, ending at $79.25, continues to firm on what appears to be an approach to $80. Gold ended at just over $1.060.
Low interest rates interest in the U.S. vs. expectations for rising rates in other economies continue to hurt the dollar. The dollar index fell 0.4 percent to 75.34. The decline in the dollar pushed commodities higher especially base metals where copper gained 10 cents to $2.93. Oil, ending at $79.25, continues to firm on what appears to be an approach to $80. Gold ended at just over $1.060.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
GE heading for bankruptcy
Porter Stansberry writes:
GE says it "brings good things to life," but in fact, over the decade, it has mostly been about bringing good debt to life. For many, many years, GE relied on its triple-A credit rating to borrow money cheaply in the 30-day commercial paper market and then lend it out at a much higher rate, via things like credit-card receivables. These kinds of financial strategies worked well during the debt-financed boom of 1995-2008. They don't work anymore. In fact, without a government guarantee backing its debts, GE would have already gone bankrupt.
Here are the core facts: GE owes its creditors $518 billion. That is not a misprint. It owns tangible net assets of only $17 billion. Thus, on a tangible basis, it is currently leveraged by more than 30-to-1. That's unheard of for a major industrial company. A 3.3% decline in the value of its asset base would wipe out all of its tangible equity. But here's the real problem. Last quarter, the company produced $2 million in operating income. Again, that's not a misprint. On $17 billion in assets, the company earned only $2 million. So... what will happen to GE if (or when) the free market sets its borrowing costs?
GE spent $4.3 billion on interest in the last quarter – thanks to the government's guarantee. So on an annualized basis, GE is now spending roughly $17 billion to service its $500 billion in debt. That's an annualized interest rate of 3.3%. This is not sustainable. Sooner or later, GE is going to have to pay a market interest rate.
Currently, the yield on high-yield corporate debt is around 10%. GE is now rated two slots above "junk" by Egan Jones, the only reliable ratings agency. So let's assume GM could still qualify as an investment-grade credit – which is a generous assumption. GM would pay something like 8% on its debt in a free market. That would cost more than $41 billion a year. Last year, GE earned $45 billion before interest and taxes – in total. It spent $33 billion of these profits on capital expenditures and necessary investments – expenses required to keep the business going. That left it with about $12 billion in what we call "owner earnings." That's not nearly enough money to pay the interest on its debts – whether they're backed by the government or not.
Imagine if the interest on your mortgage consumed 91% of your pre-tax earnings. Could you possibly avoid bankruptcy? No way, right? But... there's a big difference between owing the bank a few hundred grand and owing folks more than $500 billion. Last year, even though GE couldn't actually afford its debts and required a government bailout, it spent $12.4 billion on dividends for common stock holders. That's 20% more than it spent on dividends in 2006! (GE finally cut its dividend by 70% in February. It will be eliminated soon, I promise. Its creditors will finally wake up and demand it.)
Today the stock market values GE at $171 billion. In fact, the common stock – every single share – is not worth one penny. Plan accordingly.
Porter Stansberry
GE says it "brings good things to life," but in fact, over the decade, it has mostly been about bringing good debt to life. For many, many years, GE relied on its triple-A credit rating to borrow money cheaply in the 30-day commercial paper market and then lend it out at a much higher rate, via things like credit-card receivables. These kinds of financial strategies worked well during the debt-financed boom of 1995-2008. They don't work anymore. In fact, without a government guarantee backing its debts, GE would have already gone bankrupt.
Here are the core facts: GE owes its creditors $518 billion. That is not a misprint. It owns tangible net assets of only $17 billion. Thus, on a tangible basis, it is currently leveraged by more than 30-to-1. That's unheard of for a major industrial company. A 3.3% decline in the value of its asset base would wipe out all of its tangible equity. But here's the real problem. Last quarter, the company produced $2 million in operating income. Again, that's not a misprint. On $17 billion in assets, the company earned only $2 million. So... what will happen to GE if (or when) the free market sets its borrowing costs?
GE spent $4.3 billion on interest in the last quarter – thanks to the government's guarantee. So on an annualized basis, GE is now spending roughly $17 billion to service its $500 billion in debt. That's an annualized interest rate of 3.3%. This is not sustainable. Sooner or later, GE is going to have to pay a market interest rate.
Currently, the yield on high-yield corporate debt is around 10%. GE is now rated two slots above "junk" by Egan Jones, the only reliable ratings agency. So let's assume GM could still qualify as an investment-grade credit – which is a generous assumption. GM would pay something like 8% on its debt in a free market. That would cost more than $41 billion a year. Last year, GE earned $45 billion before interest and taxes – in total. It spent $33 billion of these profits on capital expenditures and necessary investments – expenses required to keep the business going. That left it with about $12 billion in what we call "owner earnings." That's not nearly enough money to pay the interest on its debts – whether they're backed by the government or not.
Imagine if the interest on your mortgage consumed 91% of your pre-tax earnings. Could you possibly avoid bankruptcy? No way, right? But... there's a big difference between owing the bank a few hundred grand and owing folks more than $500 billion. Last year, even though GE couldn't actually afford its debts and required a government bailout, it spent $12.4 billion on dividends for common stock holders. That's 20% more than it spent on dividends in 2006! (GE finally cut its dividend by 70% in February. It will be eliminated soon, I promise. Its creditors will finally wake up and demand it.)
Today the stock market values GE at $171 billion. In fact, the common stock – every single share – is not worth one penny. Plan accordingly.
Porter Stansberry
What is a Real Earnings Surprise?
By: Michael Vodicka
Zacks Investment Research
Have you ever wondered why some stocks skyrocket on a positive earnings surprise while others fall off a cliff? In this article we are going to tackle this little-understood issue. Better yet, I will share with you two ways to profit from earnings surprises. More on that later.
3 Reasons Stocks Can Drop After an Earnings Surprise
Estimates vs. Whisper Number: The standard definition of an earnings surprise is when actual earnings come in higher than earnings estimates. But those estimates are the “published” numbers from the brokerage analysts. Quite often investors tend to develop their own unique set of expectations based on sentiment, sometimes referred to as a “whisper number”. If there is too much optimism ahead of the release, then actual earnings will need to be a blowout in order to appease the market’s inflated expectations. This is the most common reason why some stocks fall after a supposed earnings beat.
Quality of Earnings: The highest quality earnings come from having robust revenue growth. This means that the company’s products or services are in high demand and should stay that way. However, far too much of the earnings being reported these days are generated from cost cutting and other "accounting gimmickry". The problem is that the benefits of these moves don’t last. When the market gets a whiff that the earnings are unsustainable, no matter how strong the beat, shares will most likely drop.
Forward Guidance: Plain and simple, when you buy a stock you are taking an ownership position. And what owners of companies care about is the stream of future earnings. So if a company beats earnings for the quarter just reported, but warns that future quarters will see lower earnings, then that stock will go down…and go down fast.
2 Ways to Make Money on Earnings Surprises
So now that we have outlined things that can wrong after an earnings surprise, let's shift gears and talk about something even more important: how to turn a profit from earnings surprises. Here are two ways to go about it.
Good Way: Buy shares in any company that had an earnings surprise and then rose the day following the news. These stocks experience what academics call the "Post Earnings Announcement Drift". Studies clearly show that these stocks usually outperform the market over the next 9 months. Conversely, you should sell any stock in your portfolio that misses its earnings number as it is likely to underperform the market for the next few quarters. The downside of this approach is that there are literally thousands of stocks to choose from every quarter.
Best Way: Look for those rare opportunities where investors simply guessed wrong about a company's earnings prospects. Specifically, find companies with shares that were declining for about a week prior to the earnings report, yet amazingly produced a big earnings surprise. Sure, the price will jump at the open following the news, but our research clearly shows that the stock will continue to rise over the next couple weeks as investors play catch up.
Where to Find These Stocks
Most of the information to find these "Best Way" earnings surprisers is publically available and free. But I don't know of anyone that puts it together in an easy-to-use format that will help you consistently find these winners.
Mike focuses on finding the best momentum stocks for Zacks.com customers. He is also the Editor in charge of the Zacks Surprise Trader service. Learn more here:
http://www.zacks.com/registration/surprise_trader_long_form.php?adid=ST_WEW_MIKEV_10.17.09
Zacks Investment Research
Have you ever wondered why some stocks skyrocket on a positive earnings surprise while others fall off a cliff? In this article we are going to tackle this little-understood issue. Better yet, I will share with you two ways to profit from earnings surprises. More on that later.
3 Reasons Stocks Can Drop After an Earnings Surprise
Estimates vs. Whisper Number: The standard definition of an earnings surprise is when actual earnings come in higher than earnings estimates. But those estimates are the “published” numbers from the brokerage analysts. Quite often investors tend to develop their own unique set of expectations based on sentiment, sometimes referred to as a “whisper number”. If there is too much optimism ahead of the release, then actual earnings will need to be a blowout in order to appease the market’s inflated expectations. This is the most common reason why some stocks fall after a supposed earnings beat.
Quality of Earnings: The highest quality earnings come from having robust revenue growth. This means that the company’s products or services are in high demand and should stay that way. However, far too much of the earnings being reported these days are generated from cost cutting and other "accounting gimmickry". The problem is that the benefits of these moves don’t last. When the market gets a whiff that the earnings are unsustainable, no matter how strong the beat, shares will most likely drop.
Forward Guidance: Plain and simple, when you buy a stock you are taking an ownership position. And what owners of companies care about is the stream of future earnings. So if a company beats earnings for the quarter just reported, but warns that future quarters will see lower earnings, then that stock will go down…and go down fast.
2 Ways to Make Money on Earnings Surprises
So now that we have outlined things that can wrong after an earnings surprise, let's shift gears and talk about something even more important: how to turn a profit from earnings surprises. Here are two ways to go about it.
Good Way: Buy shares in any company that had an earnings surprise and then rose the day following the news. These stocks experience what academics call the "Post Earnings Announcement Drift". Studies clearly show that these stocks usually outperform the market over the next 9 months. Conversely, you should sell any stock in your portfolio that misses its earnings number as it is likely to underperform the market for the next few quarters. The downside of this approach is that there are literally thousands of stocks to choose from every quarter.
Best Way: Look for those rare opportunities where investors simply guessed wrong about a company's earnings prospects. Specifically, find companies with shares that were declining for about a week prior to the earnings report, yet amazingly produced a big earnings surprise. Sure, the price will jump at the open following the news, but our research clearly shows that the stock will continue to rise over the next couple weeks as investors play catch up.
Where to Find These Stocks
Most of the information to find these "Best Way" earnings surprisers is publically available and free. But I don't know of anyone that puts it together in an easy-to-use format that will help you consistently find these winners.
Mike focuses on finding the best momentum stocks for Zacks.com customers. He is also the Editor in charge of the Zacks Surprise Trader service. Learn more here:
http://www.zacks.com/registration/surprise_trader_long_form.php?adid=ST_WEW_MIKEV_10.17.09
Friday, October 16, 2009
Market Reflections 10/15/2009
Oil shot higher Thursday in reaction to a steep draw in gasoline inventories, a draw reflecting improving demand but more reflecting lower output from refineries which have been complaining about weak margins. Oil convincingly broke through resistance at $75 to end at $77.50 with traders talking about $80 based on momentum alone. But a move toward $100 will take strong evidence of demand growth outside of China.
Good news for Friday's stock market hit after Thursday's close with IBM, Advanced Micro and especially Google beating expectations. The S&P ended 0.4 percent higher at 1,096, poised to take out 1,100 in what will inflict even greater agony on the bears. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs both released mixed results before the opening, with big credit losses at Citigroup pushing back prospects for the bank's return to profitability. Gold, which many say is overdo for consolidation, moved lower, losing as much as $20 to $1,045 before bouncing back to $1,050 at the close. The dollar for once wasn't center stage Thursday, edging 1 tenth lower on the dollar index to 75.47.
Good news for Friday's stock market hit after Thursday's close with IBM, Advanced Micro and especially Google beating expectations. The S&P ended 0.4 percent higher at 1,096, poised to take out 1,100 in what will inflict even greater agony on the bears. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs both released mixed results before the opening, with big credit losses at Citigroup pushing back prospects for the bank's return to profitability. Gold, which many say is overdo for consolidation, moved lower, losing as much as $20 to $1,045 before bouncing back to $1,050 at the close. The dollar for once wasn't center stage Thursday, edging 1 tenth lower on the dollar index to 75.47.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Credit in America
From The Economist out of London. The headline reads "Credit in America: Slim pickings, no appetite". In a nutshell, the story notes that the level of credit is dropping, bank lending is contracting, loan losses are climbing, and people are paying down debt and saving more. They conclude the article thusly... "With loan losses unlikely to peak until well into 2010 and banks likely to keep failing until at least 2011, the real credit crunch may still lie ahead." [And that's a very optimistic time line as well. - Ed] I thank P.S. for sending me this story... which is well worth the read... and the link is here.
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14636886&fsrc=nwl
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14636886&fsrc=nwl
Quotable
“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”
Marcus Tullius Cicero
Marcus Tullius Cicero
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Market Reflections 10/14/2009
Solid gains for retail sales outside of ex-clunker autos fueled a strong rally on Wall Street with the Dow Jones industrial average rising past 10,000 to end at 10,015 for a 1.5 percent gain. The S&P gained even more, up 1.8 percent to 1,092 and is approaching the 1,100 level that bulls had been hoping to reach by year end, let alone October. The S&P is up an amazing 64 percent from its March low. September's gains along with those so far in October are embarrassing the bears who nevertheless continue to warn that the market is moving too far and way too fast. Strong results from Intel late yesterday and promises of more were also behind today's strength.
Wednesday's overnight session saw strong trade data out of China, data that raised expectations further of a widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and other economies. And investors are seeking yield, pushing the dollar index down a very steep 0.7 percent to 75.46. At $75.10, oil firmed a little more than 50 cents but is only flirting, not breaking through, $75, considered to be hard resistance at the outside of an existing range beginning at $65. Gold may be flirting with another breakout, this time to $1,100. Gold ended steady at just under $1,065.
Wednesday's overnight session saw strong trade data out of China, data that raised expectations further of a widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and other economies. And investors are seeking yield, pushing the dollar index down a very steep 0.7 percent to 75.46. At $75.10, oil firmed a little more than 50 cents but is only flirting, not breaking through, $75, considered to be hard resistance at the outside of an existing range beginning at $65. Gold may be flirting with another breakout, this time to $1,100. Gold ended steady at just under $1,065.
Market Reflections 10/13/2009
Soft earnings at Johnson & Johnson weighed on stocks Tuesday with the S&P ending 0.3 percent lower at 1,073. But strong results after the close from chip makers Intel and Altera, which both raised sales estimates, point to strength for overnight trading. Strong sales and guidance for yet stronger sales are what the bulls are looking for this quarter.
Talk that U.S. interest rates will remain low continues to hurt the dollar with the dollar index down 0.4 percent at 75.82. Oil got a boost from the dollar's trouble, ending $1-1/2 higher at $74.50. Gold, steady at $1,065, is also benefiting from the dollar's weakness.
Talk that U.S. interest rates will remain low continues to hurt the dollar with the dollar index down 0.4 percent at 75.82. Oil got a boost from the dollar's trouble, ending $1-1/2 higher at $74.50. Gold, steady at $1,065, is also benefiting from the dollar's weakness.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Market Reflections 10/12/2009
Stocks extended their winning streak to six straight sessions with the S&P ending up 0.4 percent to 1,076. Volume was light due to observance of Columbus Day at foreign exchange and bond desks. Oil was a feature Monday, rising nearly $1 to $73 as a cold front sweeps the nation. Shares of oil companies rose more than 1 percent.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Weekly market Update October 9, 2009
HEADLINE NEWS WEEK ENDING 10/09/09
Overview
Statements made this week by US presidential advisor Lawrence Summers and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke underscore our views that the US economic recovery will likely be sluggish and that the Fed is planning to exit from its credit easing programs. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
US MARKETS
Treasury/Economics
US Treasuries traded significantly lower this week, with the long end of the yield curve, mostly 10-year and 30-year yields, underperforming all other maturities. more...
http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Large-Cap Equities
The stock market finished the week higher for the first time in three weeks on strong corporate earnings and better-than-expected economic data. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Corporate Bonds
Investment grade primary activity kept investors hankering for more, as small infrequent issuers tapped the market. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Mortgages outperformed Treasuries as yields rose sharply on profit taking and hawkish rhetoric by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Municipal Bonds
After enjoying a stellar summer rally, yields on municipal bonds rose sharply this week. This was especially notable in the face of nearly unchanged short and intermediate maturity Treasuries. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
High-Yield
The capital markets over the next few weeks will be focused on the third quarter earnings season, which has just begun with Alcoa’s earnings. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Eastern European Equities
The CECE index of equities traded in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) gained +2.1% this week, while the Russian stock index RTS went up +12.0%. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Global Bonds and Currencies
Bond yields rose from their recent lows in most major non-US sovereign markets over the past week. Several factors were at work pushing yields higher. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Emerging-Market Bonds
Emerging market dollar-pay debt spreads tightened this week. Risk appetite once again returned to global financial markets and most equity indices rallied on the back of strong economic data and a better-than-expected start to the earnings season in the US. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
For more information, please contact 800 5-PAYDEN or visit payden.com.
To unsubscribe from this email, please email us at unsubscribe@payden-rygel.com.
Have a great weekend!
All rights reserved. Legal terms. Payden & Rygel respects your privacy. Privacy policy.
The investment strategy and investment management information presented on this email and related Web site, payden.com, should not be construed to be formal financial planning advice or the formation of a financial manager/client relationship. Payden.com is an informative Web site designed to provide information to the general public based on our recommendations of investment management and investment strategies and is not designed to be representative of your own financial needs. Nor does the information contained herein constitute financial management advice. The firm makes no warranty or representation regarding the accuracy or legality of any information contained in this Web site, and assumes no liability for the use of said information. Be advised that as Internet communications are not always confidential, you provide our Web site your personal information at your own risk. Please do not make any decisions about any investment management or investment strategy matter without consulting with a qualified professional.
Overview
Statements made this week by US presidential advisor Lawrence Summers and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke underscore our views that the US economic recovery will likely be sluggish and that the Fed is planning to exit from its credit easing programs. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
US MARKETS
Treasury/Economics
US Treasuries traded significantly lower this week, with the long end of the yield curve, mostly 10-year and 30-year yields, underperforming all other maturities. more...
http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Large-Cap Equities
The stock market finished the week higher for the first time in three weeks on strong corporate earnings and better-than-expected economic data. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Corporate Bonds
Investment grade primary activity kept investors hankering for more, as small infrequent issuers tapped the market. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Mortgages outperformed Treasuries as yields rose sharply on profit taking and hawkish rhetoric by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Municipal Bonds
After enjoying a stellar summer rally, yields on municipal bonds rose sharply this week. This was especially notable in the face of nearly unchanged short and intermediate maturity Treasuries. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
High-Yield
The capital markets over the next few weeks will be focused on the third quarter earnings season, which has just begun with Alcoa’s earnings. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Eastern European Equities
The CECE index of equities traded in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) gained +2.1% this week, while the Russian stock index RTS went up +12.0%. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Global Bonds and Currencies
Bond yields rose from their recent lows in most major non-US sovereign markets over the past week. Several factors were at work pushing yields higher. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
Emerging-Market Bonds
Emerging market dollar-pay debt spreads tightened this week. Risk appetite once again returned to global financial markets and most equity indices rallied on the back of strong economic data and a better-than-expected start to the earnings season in the US. more...http://payden.com/library/wmu/newsletter.pdf
For more information, please contact 800 5-PAYDEN or visit payden.com.
To unsubscribe from this email, please email us at unsubscribe@payden-rygel.com.
Have a great weekend!
All rights reserved. Legal terms. Payden & Rygel respects your privacy. Privacy policy.
The investment strategy and investment management information presented on this email and related Web site, payden.com, should not be construed to be formal financial planning advice or the formation of a financial manager/client relationship. Payden.com is an informative Web site designed to provide information to the general public based on our recommendations of investment management and investment strategies and is not designed to be representative of your own financial needs. Nor does the information contained herein constitute financial management advice. The firm makes no warranty or representation regarding the accuracy or legality of any information contained in this Web site, and assumes no liability for the use of said information. Be advised that as Internet communications are not always confidential, you provide our Web site your personal information at your own risk. Please do not make any decisions about any investment management or investment strategy matter without consulting with a qualified professional.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Market Reflections 10/8/2009
A 1 tenth downtick in the Australian unemployment rate to 5.7 percent flashed a signal of global recovery, tripping a rush out of the U.S. dollar and into commodities including gold. Talk is heavy that interest rate differentials will more than ever favor Asian currencies and the euro as economies in the regions strengthen and interest rates begin to rise. The U.S. economy, where the unemployment rate is 9.8 percent and climbing, appears to be lagging though today's economic news was positive, headed by a significant decline in jobless claims and a run of positive chain-store reports that suggest the consumer, despite the weak labor market, may be showing some life.
The dollar index fell a very steep 0.7 percent to 75.97 for a new 12-month low. A weak dollar points to price inflation making gold once again a center of attention. Gold peaked at a new high at $1,061 before edging back in afternoon trade to $1,056. Equities rose on the day, up 0.8 percent on the S&P to 1,065, helped in part by the strong economic news and by yesterday's strong earnings from aluminum producer Alcoa.
The dollar index fell a very steep 0.7 percent to 75.97 for a new 12-month low. A weak dollar points to price inflation making gold once again a center of attention. Gold peaked at a new high at $1,061 before edging back in afternoon trade to $1,056. Equities rose on the day, up 0.8 percent on the S&P to 1,065, helped in part by the strong economic news and by yesterday's strong earnings from aluminum producer Alcoa.
Market Reflections 10/7/2009
Stocks drifted Wednesday with the S&P ending slightly higher at 1,057. The biggest news hit after the close as aluminum producer Alcoa posted a better-than-expected bottom line for the third quarter but one helped by cost cuts not rising demand. Shares of Alcoa slipped in after-hours trade. Gold held on to its big gains, ending at $1,042 while oil slipped about $2 to end just under $70 following a big build in gasoline inventories. The dollar firmed slightly which kept a lid on commodities.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Market Reflections 10/6/2009
A report from U.K. newspaper "The Independent" pushed gold to record levels and tripped heavy losses in the dollar. The report, denied by all parties, says the Arabs and Chinese are working together with the Russians and the French to reprice oil, replacing the U.S. dollar with a basket of currencies and commodities including -- gold. Gold jumped more than $25 to end near its highs at $1,041. Not only would gold benefit from being included in a repricing mechanism, but it is currently benefiting, in its role as an alternative currency, from questions over the future of the dollar. The dollar index fell 0.4 percent to 76.33.
Commodities rose across the board though the gain in oil was very subdued, up 50 cents to $71.00. Traders noted that supply and demand, which are currently unfavorable for oil, will ultimately determine its value, more so than the items used to price it. Underscoring the glut of petroleum products in the market, U.S. oil company Sunoco is closing a refinery and cutting its dividend in half.
Gold shares soared in extremely heavy volume with SPDR Gold (GLD) up 3% at $102.28 and Barrick (ABX) up 5% at $38.84. The S&P rose on the day, up 1.4 percent to 1,054 despite a run of strategist warnings that the market is due for a correction.
Commodities rose across the board though the gain in oil was very subdued, up 50 cents to $71.00. Traders noted that supply and demand, which are currently unfavorable for oil, will ultimately determine its value, more so than the items used to price it. Underscoring the glut of petroleum products in the market, U.S. oil company Sunoco is closing a refinery and cutting its dividend in half.
Gold shares soared in extremely heavy volume with SPDR Gold (GLD) up 3% at $102.28 and Barrick (ABX) up 5% at $38.84. The S&P rose on the day, up 1.4 percent to 1,054 despite a run of strategist warnings that the market is due for a correction.
Market Reflections 10/5/2009
Stocks rallied Monday supported by a strong gain for the ISM's non-manufacturing survey, results that show a jump in new orders and in output. Though employment continues to lag, some businesses in the survey are beginning to talk about new hiring. The S&P 500 rose 2% to 1,040. Commodities rallied along with stocks with oil ending at $70.50 and gold once again well above $1,000 at $1,015. The move away from safety made for a 0.3 percent decline in the dollar index to 76.68.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Weekly Market Update (10/2/09)
HEADLINE NEWS WEEK ENDING 10/02/09
Overview
The US economy shed 263,000 jobs in September, which was below the consensus forecast by nearly 100,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.8% during the month. more...
US MARKETS
Treasury/Economics
Treasuries traded higher this week, with the intermediate part of the yield curve, mostly 5 year and 7 year yields outperforming all other maturities. more...
Large-Cap Equities
The stock market fell for the second straight week on concerns of a slower than expected economic recovery. more...
Corporate Bonds
Investment grade primary activity continued its recent run as an eclectic mix of issuers tapped the market. more...
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Is the range bound trade over? A relapse in equities and weaker-than-expected economic reports sent bond yields to their lowest levels since May. more...
Municipal Bonds
The municipal bond market turned in a fantastic monthly performance in September. Total return for the month on the broad Barclays Municipal Bond Index ranked as one of the top 3 months in the last 20 years, at 3.6%. more...
High-Yield
After posting the largest gains in the modern history of the high yield market of over 22% in the second quarter, the asset class did not disappoint in the third quarter. more...
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Eastern European Equities
The CECE index of equities traded in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) lost -3.7% this week, while the Russian stock index RTS went down -0.1%. more...
Global Bonds and Currencies
Major non-US government bond markets had another positive week, supported by equity market declines and concerns over the sustainability of the global recovery in the wake of some disappointing US data, even though domestic data developments were mixed to positive. more...
Emerging-Market Bonds
Emerging market dollar-pay debt spreads were unchanged this week. Although risk appetite receded as reflected through lower global equity indices, emerging market bonds remained supported by strong inflows into the asset class more...
For more information, please contact 800 5-PAYDEN or visit payden.com.
If you have difficulties viewing this e-mail and would prefer the Weekly Market Update in plain text format, please e-mail us at paydenrygel@payden-rygel.com. To unsubscribe from this email, please email us at unsubscribe@payden-rygel.com.
Have a great weekend!
All rights reserved. Legal terms. Payden & Rygel respects your privacy. Privacy policy.
The investment strategy and investment management information presented on this email and related Web site, payden.com, should not be construed to be formal financial planning advice or the formation of a financial manager/client relationship. Payden.com is an informative Web site designed to provide information to the general public based on our recommendations of investment management and investment strategies and is not designed to be representative of your own financial needs. Nor does the information contained herein constitute financial management advice. The firm makes no warranty or representation regarding the accuracy or legality of any information contained in this Web site, and assumes no liability for the use of said information. Be advised that as Internet communications are not always confidential, you provide our Web site your personal information at your own risk. Please do not make any decisions about any investment management or investment strategy matter without consulting with a qualified professional.
Overview
The US economy shed 263,000 jobs in September, which was below the consensus forecast by nearly 100,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.8% during the month. more...
US MARKETS
Treasury/Economics
Treasuries traded higher this week, with the intermediate part of the yield curve, mostly 5 year and 7 year yields outperforming all other maturities. more...
Large-Cap Equities
The stock market fell for the second straight week on concerns of a slower than expected economic recovery. more...
Corporate Bonds
Investment grade primary activity continued its recent run as an eclectic mix of issuers tapped the market. more...
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Is the range bound trade over? A relapse in equities and weaker-than-expected economic reports sent bond yields to their lowest levels since May. more...
Municipal Bonds
The municipal bond market turned in a fantastic monthly performance in September. Total return for the month on the broad Barclays Municipal Bond Index ranked as one of the top 3 months in the last 20 years, at 3.6%. more...
High-Yield
After posting the largest gains in the modern history of the high yield market of over 22% in the second quarter, the asset class did not disappoint in the third quarter. more...
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Eastern European Equities
The CECE index of equities traded in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) lost -3.7% this week, while the Russian stock index RTS went down -0.1%. more...
Global Bonds and Currencies
Major non-US government bond markets had another positive week, supported by equity market declines and concerns over the sustainability of the global recovery in the wake of some disappointing US data, even though domestic data developments were mixed to positive. more...
Emerging-Market Bonds
Emerging market dollar-pay debt spreads were unchanged this week. Although risk appetite receded as reflected through lower global equity indices, emerging market bonds remained supported by strong inflows into the asset class more...
For more information, please contact 800 5-PAYDEN or visit payden.com.
If you have difficulties viewing this e-mail and would prefer the Weekly Market Update in plain text format, please e-mail us at paydenrygel@payden-rygel.com. To unsubscribe from this email, please email us at unsubscribe@payden-rygel.com.
Have a great weekend!
All rights reserved. Legal terms. Payden & Rygel respects your privacy. Privacy policy.
The investment strategy and investment management information presented on this email and related Web site, payden.com, should not be construed to be formal financial planning advice or the formation of a financial manager/client relationship. Payden.com is an informative Web site designed to provide information to the general public based on our recommendations of investment management and investment strategies and is not designed to be representative of your own financial needs. Nor does the information contained herein constitute financial management advice. The firm makes no warranty or representation regarding the accuracy or legality of any information contained in this Web site, and assumes no liability for the use of said information. Be advised that as Internet communications are not always confidential, you provide our Web site your personal information at your own risk. Please do not make any decisions about any investment management or investment strategy matter without consulting with a qualified professional.
Factory Orders
Released on 10/2/2009 10:00:00 AM For August, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Factory Orders - M/M change 1.3 % 1.0 % -0.8 % to 1.6 % -0.8 %
Highlights
The manufacturing recovery is having a bumpy lift off. Manufacturing activity first moved higher in June then improved further in July but then dipped back in August. Factory orders for August fell 0.8 percent vs. a 1.4 percent rise in July (1.3 percent first reported) and vs. a 0.9 percent rise in June. August's data were pulled lower by durable goods, down 2.6 percent in the month (revised from an initial 2.4 percent). August orders for non-durable goods make their appearance with this report, up 0.8 percent and reflecting higher prices for oil & coal but not nearly enough to offset the drop in durable goods.
Weakness in durable goods is centered in transportation which is skewed not by motor vehicles, which despite cash-for-clunkers have been steady and which rose 2.0 percent in August, but have been skewed by aircraft where a huge jump in July made for a huge drop in August. Most categories outside of transportation also show month-to-month weakness. Capital goods readings fell back from big gains in July and point to trouble for export data in next week's international trade report. Consumer goods readings were mixed showing weakness for durable goods but strength for nondurables.
Among other data in the report, factory shipments fell 0.3 percent vs. a 0.3 percent rise in July. This particular reading raises the question whether the manufacturing sector actually did dip back into negative territory during August. Unfilled orders fell 0.4 percent while inventories fell 0.8 percent as manufacturers continued to keep costs down. But yesterday's ISM manufacturing report showed a pivotal slowing in the rate of inventory draw, pointing to a month-to-month gain for September inventories in what arguably would mark the end of the inventory correction. The outlook for the manufacturing sector is positive but uncertain as the sector's recovery is proving, as was expected, to be gradual not explosive.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Factory Orders - M/M change 1.3 % 1.0 % -0.8 % to 1.6 % -0.8 %
Highlights
The manufacturing recovery is having a bumpy lift off. Manufacturing activity first moved higher in June then improved further in July but then dipped back in August. Factory orders for August fell 0.8 percent vs. a 1.4 percent rise in July (1.3 percent first reported) and vs. a 0.9 percent rise in June. August's data were pulled lower by durable goods, down 2.6 percent in the month (revised from an initial 2.4 percent). August orders for non-durable goods make their appearance with this report, up 0.8 percent and reflecting higher prices for oil & coal but not nearly enough to offset the drop in durable goods.
Weakness in durable goods is centered in transportation which is skewed not by motor vehicles, which despite cash-for-clunkers have been steady and which rose 2.0 percent in August, but have been skewed by aircraft where a huge jump in July made for a huge drop in August. Most categories outside of transportation also show month-to-month weakness. Capital goods readings fell back from big gains in July and point to trouble for export data in next week's international trade report. Consumer goods readings were mixed showing weakness for durable goods but strength for nondurables.
Among other data in the report, factory shipments fell 0.3 percent vs. a 0.3 percent rise in July. This particular reading raises the question whether the manufacturing sector actually did dip back into negative territory during August. Unfilled orders fell 0.4 percent while inventories fell 0.8 percent as manufacturers continued to keep costs down. But yesterday's ISM manufacturing report showed a pivotal slowing in the rate of inventory draw, pointing to a month-to-month gain for September inventories in what arguably would mark the end of the inventory correction. The outlook for the manufacturing sector is positive but uncertain as the sector's recovery is proving, as was expected, to be gradual not explosive.
Employment Situation
Released on 10/2/2009 8:30:00 AM For September, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change -216,000 -170,000 -235,000 to -135,000 -263,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 9.7 % 9.8 % 9.6 % to 9.9 % 9.8 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.1 %
Average Workweek - Level 33.1 hrs 33.1 hrs 33.1 hrs to 33.2 hrs 33.0 hrs
Highlights
The September jobs report was disappointing-but the consensus may have grown too optimistic. In reality, job losses are not nearly as severe as earlier in the recession and the unemployment rate is drifting up slowly as expected. Nonfarm payroll employment in September fell 263,000, following a revised decline of 201,000 in August and a revised decrease of 304,000 in July. The September drop in payroll employment was worse than the consensus forecast for a 170,000 contraction. August and July revisions were down a net 13,000 (the net declines were worse).
Job losses were widespread in both goods-producing and service-providing sectors. By major categories, goods-producing jobs decreased 116,000 in September, following a 132,000 drop the month before. In the latest month, construction jobs fell 64,000 while manufacturing declined 51,000 and mining slipped 1,000. Service-providing losses, however, surged back to a 147,000 fall, after contracting only 69,000 in August. The drop in service-providing jobs was led by trade & transportation, down 60,000, and by government, down 53,000. Trade was tugged down mainly by retail jobs which fell 39,000. Government weakness was led by the non-education component of local government, down 24,000, as revenue shortfalls have forced job cuts despite fiscal stimulus monies.
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.2 million.
On a year-ago basis, payroll jobs were down 4.2 percent in September-slightly better than down 4.3 percent the previous month.
Wage inflation eased sharply as average hourly earnings in September grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain in August. The consensus had projected a 0.2 percent rise for the latest month. The average workweek slipped to 33.0 hours from 33.1 hours in August, coming in below the market forecast for 33.1 hours.
Turning to the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate continued its uptrend, rising to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in August and compared to the market forecast for 9.8 percent. The latest rate is the highest since 1983.
Today's employment report will set equities back as futures were down notably on the release. Bond yields fell. However, the numbers are not dramatically negative and on average over the last few months reflect improvement. It is too early to write off the recovery given that nearly everyone expected a sluggish and choppy recovery.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in August fell 216,000, following a decrease of 276,000 in July and a decline of 463,000 in June. By major categories, goods-producing jobs dropped 136,000 in August, following a 122,000 decrease the month before. The slowing in overall payroll job cuts was due to fewer pink slips in the services sector. Service-providing losses were cut in half with an 80,000 decline after falling 154,000 in July. Wage inflation warmed up a bit-likely due to a jump in the minimum wage. Average hourly earnings in August rose 0.3 percent, matching July's gain.
Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change -216,000 -170,000 -235,000 to -135,000 -263,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 9.7 % 9.8 % 9.6 % to 9.9 % 9.8 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.1 %
Average Workweek - Level 33.1 hrs 33.1 hrs 33.1 hrs to 33.2 hrs 33.0 hrs
Highlights
The September jobs report was disappointing-but the consensus may have grown too optimistic. In reality, job losses are not nearly as severe as earlier in the recession and the unemployment rate is drifting up slowly as expected. Nonfarm payroll employment in September fell 263,000, following a revised decline of 201,000 in August and a revised decrease of 304,000 in July. The September drop in payroll employment was worse than the consensus forecast for a 170,000 contraction. August and July revisions were down a net 13,000 (the net declines were worse).
Job losses were widespread in both goods-producing and service-providing sectors. By major categories, goods-producing jobs decreased 116,000 in September, following a 132,000 drop the month before. In the latest month, construction jobs fell 64,000 while manufacturing declined 51,000 and mining slipped 1,000. Service-providing losses, however, surged back to a 147,000 fall, after contracting only 69,000 in August. The drop in service-providing jobs was led by trade & transportation, down 60,000, and by government, down 53,000. Trade was tugged down mainly by retail jobs which fell 39,000. Government weakness was led by the non-education component of local government, down 24,000, as revenue shortfalls have forced job cuts despite fiscal stimulus monies.
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.2 million.
On a year-ago basis, payroll jobs were down 4.2 percent in September-slightly better than down 4.3 percent the previous month.
Wage inflation eased sharply as average hourly earnings in September grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain in August. The consensus had projected a 0.2 percent rise for the latest month. The average workweek slipped to 33.0 hours from 33.1 hours in August, coming in below the market forecast for 33.1 hours.
Turning to the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate continued its uptrend, rising to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in August and compared to the market forecast for 9.8 percent. The latest rate is the highest since 1983.
Today's employment report will set equities back as futures were down notably on the release. Bond yields fell. However, the numbers are not dramatically negative and on average over the last few months reflect improvement. It is too early to write off the recovery given that nearly everyone expected a sluggish and choppy recovery.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in August fell 216,000, following a decrease of 276,000 in July and a decline of 463,000 in June. By major categories, goods-producing jobs dropped 136,000 in August, following a 122,000 decrease the month before. The slowing in overall payroll job cuts was due to fewer pink slips in the services sector. Service-providing losses were cut in half with an 80,000 decline after falling 154,000 in July. Wage inflation warmed up a bit-likely due to a jump in the minimum wage. Average hourly earnings in August rose 0.3 percent, matching July's gain.
Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.
Market Reflections 10/1/2009
Disappointment for jobless claims, a less-than-robust ISM manufacturing report and a big plunge in vehicle sales tripped a move toward safety and profit-taking in stocks. The S&P ended at its lows in a rush of late session selling, down 2.6 percent to 1,029. Initial jobless claims did rise but after several weeks of substantial improvement, and ISM data showed steady month-to-month expansion with inventories now kicking in to make up for slowing but still sizable rates of month-to-month growth in orders and production. But vehicle sales have no silver lining, pointing to big trouble for the September retail sales report. Demand for safety helped the dollar, with the dollar index up 0.6 percent to 77.19, and also helped Treasuries where the 10-year yield fell 12 basis points to 3.19 percent.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Market Reflections 9/30/2009
The book on second-quarter GDP is now closed showing a mild 0.7 percent decline, improvement that may turn to growth in the third quarter. Other data in the session include a weaker-than-expected showing in ADP data that points to mild disappointment for Friday's jobs report, while the Chicago purchaser report points to out and out disappointment for upcoming manufacturing data.
Safety was the trade for Wednesday with the S&P down 0.3% at 1,057. Oil rallied strongly despite a build in weekly inventories, one however offset by a draw in gasoline stocks. Perhaps more importantly, the data show a fourth month of year-on-year demand growth with September proving the strongest yet at 6 percent in what is hinting at consumer strength. Oil rose more than $3 to $70.25. Gold rose more than $10 to back over $1,000 at 1,008.
Safety was the trade for Wednesday with the S&P down 0.3% at 1,057. Oil rallied strongly despite a build in weekly inventories, one however offset by a draw in gasoline stocks. Perhaps more importantly, the data show a fourth month of year-on-year demand growth with September proving the strongest yet at 6 percent in what is hinting at consumer strength. Oil rose more than $3 to $70.25. Gold rose more than $10 to back over $1,000 at 1,008.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Market Reflections 9/29/2009
Consumer confidence edged back in September as consumers expressed deepening pessimism over the jobs market and their income outlook. But the markets, awaiting Friday's jobs report, held steady in quiet trading. The S&P fell 0.2 percent to end at 1,060. The dollar index firmed 0.2 percent to end at 77.07 while commodities were little changed with oil ending at $66.50 and gold at $990.
Mistakes Traders Make
An interesting survey has just found its way into my inbox, courtesy of Ratio Trading. The survey of more than 500 experienced futures brokers asked what, in their experience, caused most traders to lose money. There are some repetitions in the list, but it is nevertheless a worthwhile exercise to give it a quick read to again remind ourselves of the many investment pitfalls out there.
1. Many futures traders trade without a plan. They do not define specific risk and profit objectives before trading. Even if they establish a plan, they “second guess” it and don’t stick to it, particularly if the trade is a loss. Consequently, they overtrade and use their equity to the limit (are undercapitalized), which puts them in a squeeze and forces them to liquidate positions.
Usually, they liquidate the good trades and keep the bad ones.
2. Many traders don’t realize the news they hear and read has already been discounted by the market.
3. After several profitable trades, many speculators become wild and aggressive. They base their trades on hunches and long shots, rather than sound fundamental and technical reasoning, or put their money into one deal that “can’t fail.”
4. Traders often try to carry too big a position with too little capital, and trade too frequently for the size of the account.
5. Some traders try to “beat the market” by day trading, nervous scalping, and getting greedy.
6. They fail to pre-define risk, add to a losing position, and fail to use stops.
7 .They frequently have a directional bias; for example, always wanting to be long.
8. Lack of experience in the market causes many traders to become emotionally and/or financially committed to one trade, and unwilling or unable to take a loss. They may be unable to admit they have made a mistake, or they look at the market on too short a time frame.
9. They overtrade.
10. Many traders can’t (or don’t) take the small losses. They often stick with a loser until it really hurts, then take the loss. This is an undisciplined approach…a trader needs to develop and stick with a system.
11. Many traders get a fundamental case and hang onto it, even after the market technically turns. Only believe fundamentals as long as the technical signals follow. Both must agree.
12. Many traders break a cardinal rule: “Cut losses short. Let profits run.”
13. Many people trade with their hearts instead of their heads. For some traders, adversity (or success) distorts judgment. That’s why they should have a plan first, and stick to it.
14. Often traders have bad timing, and not enough capital to survive the shake out.
15. Too many traders perceive futures markets as an intuitive arena. The inability to distinguish between price fluctuations which reflect a fundamental change and those which represent an interim change often causes losses.
16. Not following a disciplined trading program leads to accepting large losses and small profits. Many traders do not define offensive and defensive plans when an initial position is taken.
17. Emotion makes many traders hold a loser too long. Many traders don’t discipline themselves to take small losses and big gains.
18. Too many traders are under financed, and get washed out at the extremes.
19. Greed causes some traders to allow profits to dwindle into losses while hoping for larger profits.
This is really a lack of discipline. Also, having too many trades on at one time and overtrading for the amount of capital involved can stem from greed.
20. Trying to trade inactive markets is dangerous.
Source: Ratio Trading, September 4, 2009.
1. Many futures traders trade without a plan. They do not define specific risk and profit objectives before trading. Even if they establish a plan, they “second guess” it and don’t stick to it, particularly if the trade is a loss. Consequently, they overtrade and use their equity to the limit (are undercapitalized), which puts them in a squeeze and forces them to liquidate positions.
Usually, they liquidate the good trades and keep the bad ones.
2. Many traders don’t realize the news they hear and read has already been discounted by the market.
3. After several profitable trades, many speculators become wild and aggressive. They base their trades on hunches and long shots, rather than sound fundamental and technical reasoning, or put their money into one deal that “can’t fail.”
4. Traders often try to carry too big a position with too little capital, and trade too frequently for the size of the account.
5. Some traders try to “beat the market” by day trading, nervous scalping, and getting greedy.
6. They fail to pre-define risk, add to a losing position, and fail to use stops.
7 .They frequently have a directional bias; for example, always wanting to be long.
8. Lack of experience in the market causes many traders to become emotionally and/or financially committed to one trade, and unwilling or unable to take a loss. They may be unable to admit they have made a mistake, or they look at the market on too short a time frame.
9. They overtrade.
10. Many traders can’t (or don’t) take the small losses. They often stick with a loser until it really hurts, then take the loss. This is an undisciplined approach…a trader needs to develop and stick with a system.
11. Many traders get a fundamental case and hang onto it, even after the market technically turns. Only believe fundamentals as long as the technical signals follow. Both must agree.
12. Many traders break a cardinal rule: “Cut losses short. Let profits run.”
13. Many people trade with their hearts instead of their heads. For some traders, adversity (or success) distorts judgment. That’s why they should have a plan first, and stick to it.
14. Often traders have bad timing, and not enough capital to survive the shake out.
15. Too many traders perceive futures markets as an intuitive arena. The inability to distinguish between price fluctuations which reflect a fundamental change and those which represent an interim change often causes losses.
16. Not following a disciplined trading program leads to accepting large losses and small profits. Many traders do not define offensive and defensive plans when an initial position is taken.
17. Emotion makes many traders hold a loser too long. Many traders don’t discipline themselves to take small losses and big gains.
18. Too many traders are under financed, and get washed out at the extremes.
19. Greed causes some traders to allow profits to dwindle into losses while hoping for larger profits.
This is really a lack of discipline. Also, having too many trades on at one time and overtrading for the amount of capital involved can stem from greed.
20. Trying to trade inactive markets is dangerous.
Source: Ratio Trading, September 4, 2009.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/337749/Bullish-Today-Marc-Faber-Is-Highly-Confident-the-Future-Will-Be-Very-Bleak?tickers=^DJI
One view of the future from Marc Faber: (link to video above)
Bullish Today, Marc Faber Is "Highly Confident" the Future Will Be Very Bleak
Posted Sep 22, 2009 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, EEM, FXI, VNM, EWZ, SPY
"The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society," Marc Faber writes in the September issue of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.
A statement like that pretty much speaks for itself, but it's a bit more complicated than appears on first blush.
Faber has been bullish -- especially on commodities and emerging market stocks -- for some time now and believes the current global recovery trade will last another two-to-three years, as discussed in more detail in a forthcoming clip. But he has major long-term concerns about the dollar's long-term viability given rising U.S. deficits, massive unfunded mandates and the fact "we have a money-printer at the Fed."
This combination will eventually lead to runaway inflation, wholesale debasement of the dollar, and a major lowering of living standards for most Americans and many Europeans as well, says Faber, who is "highly confident" in this grim prediction
Here is a contrasting view from Henry Blodgett (linked here http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-everyone-thinks-interest-rates-are-going-higher-2009-9)
Everyone Thinks Interest Rates Are Going Higher
Henry Blodget|Sep. 28, 2009, 8:01 AM
The consensus is almost always wrong, which is why today's conventional wisdom that interest rates will drift higher merits examination.
If the consensus is wrong this time, too, it means one of two things:
Interest rates will scream higher, clobbering adjustable-rate debtors and killing the economy.
Interest rates will continue to drift lower, as deflation takes hold.
We continue to believe we'll get hyper-inflation at some point (option 1), because we think the Fed will be more worried about killing the recovery than controlling inflation and will therefore err on the side of the former.
That said, right now, the prevailing trend clearly is deflation. And as Japan has showed, the spate of deflation before the hyper-inflation takes hold can last a while.
Why deflation? Despite the sequential uptick in house prices in the past few months, we still don't think we've seen the bottom. The banks are still facing huge losses in commercial real estate, which means they're likely to keep hoarding their capital and not inject new loans into the economy. This should restrain the growth of the money supply. Consumers are starting to save and retiring debt, which should rein in their spending (and, consequently, trigger price declines to try to entice them). We still have huge slack in our manufacturing industries--capacity utilization is very low.
All of which is to say... We wouldn't be surprised if the obvious trade here--interest rates will drift higher as the economy recovers--is wrong.
One view of the future from Marc Faber: (link to video above)
Bullish Today, Marc Faber Is "Highly Confident" the Future Will Be Very Bleak
Posted Sep 22, 2009 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, EEM, FXI, VNM, EWZ, SPY
"The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society," Marc Faber writes in the September issue of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.
A statement like that pretty much speaks for itself, but it's a bit more complicated than appears on first blush.
Faber has been bullish -- especially on commodities and emerging market stocks -- for some time now and believes the current global recovery trade will last another two-to-three years, as discussed in more detail in a forthcoming clip. But he has major long-term concerns about the dollar's long-term viability given rising U.S. deficits, massive unfunded mandates and the fact "we have a money-printer at the Fed."
This combination will eventually lead to runaway inflation, wholesale debasement of the dollar, and a major lowering of living standards for most Americans and many Europeans as well, says Faber, who is "highly confident" in this grim prediction
Here is a contrasting view from Henry Blodgett (linked here http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-everyone-thinks-interest-rates-are-going-higher-2009-9)
Everyone Thinks Interest Rates Are Going Higher
Henry Blodget|Sep. 28, 2009, 8:01 AM
The consensus is almost always wrong, which is why today's conventional wisdom that interest rates will drift higher merits examination.
If the consensus is wrong this time, too, it means one of two things:
Interest rates will scream higher, clobbering adjustable-rate debtors and killing the economy.
Interest rates will continue to drift lower, as deflation takes hold.
We continue to believe we'll get hyper-inflation at some point (option 1), because we think the Fed will be more worried about killing the recovery than controlling inflation and will therefore err on the side of the former.
That said, right now, the prevailing trend clearly is deflation. And as Japan has showed, the spate of deflation before the hyper-inflation takes hold can last a while.
Why deflation? Despite the sequential uptick in house prices in the past few months, we still don't think we've seen the bottom. The banks are still facing huge losses in commercial real estate, which means they're likely to keep hoarding their capital and not inject new loans into the economy. This should restrain the growth of the money supply. Consumers are starting to save and retiring debt, which should rein in their spending (and, consequently, trigger price declines to try to entice them). We still have huge slack in our manufacturing industries--capacity utilization is very low.
All of which is to say... We wouldn't be surprised if the obvious trade here--interest rates will drift higher as the economy recovers--is wrong.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Market Reflections 9/28/2009
Mergers headed Monday's news including multi-billion deals involving Xerox and Abbott Laboratories. The S&P gained 1.8 percent to 1,062 but volume was low given the Yom Kippur holiday. The dollar index firmed 0.5 percent to 76.99 after European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet stressed the importance of a strong dollar. Another missile test by Iran added some premium to oil which ended $1 higher at $67. Gold was little changed at just above $990.
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